Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 06PRAGUE574, CZECH ELECTIONS: DECISIVE VICTORY UNLIKELY

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06PRAGUE574.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06PRAGUE574 2006-05-26 16:50 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Prague
VZCZCXRO9571
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHPG #0574/01 1461650
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261650Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7404
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000574 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH ELECTIONS: DECISIVE VICTORY UNLIKELY 
 
REF: A. PRAGUE 284 
     B. PRAGUE 427 
     C. PRAGUE 482 
     D. PRAGUE 516 
     E. PRAGUE 535 
     F. PRAGUE 549 
 
PRAGUE 00000574  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  There are a number of trends, and 
idiosyncrasies in the Czech political system that will 
influence the June 2-3 general election, and politics for the 
foreseeable future. These include: (1) the semi-outlaw status 
of the Communist Party, which holds more than 20% of the 
seats in Parliament; (2) the long-term demographic trends 
that make the traditional kingmaker, the Christian Democrats, 
increasingly less relevant; (3) the rootless, fragile 
existence of small liberal parties; (4) the 
under-representation of women in politics, which is one sign 
of a broader public disgust with politics; and (5) the 
electoral rules used in the Czech proportional representation 
system. The result has been political parties that are not 
strongly connected to voters, we well as a series of weak and 
unstable governments.  The elections next month are unlikely 
to break this trend. END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) COMMUNISTS.  The Communist Party of Bohemia and 
Moravia (KSCM) is the only party from the days of 
totalitarian rule in Central Europe to have retained the word 
"communist" in its name.  Antipathy towards the Communists 
since 1989 has meant that mainstream parties would not 
cooperate with them at the national level. But this political 
isolation -- which many Czech reformers thought would 
accelerate the Communists' demise -- has coincided with 
growing support for the party among voters.  In the 1996 
elections KSCM received 22 seats (in the 200-seat lower 
chamber), 24 in the early elections in 1998, and 41 in the 
2002 vote. 
 
3. (SBU) One consequence has been that mainstream parties had 
reduced maneuvering room to form a government:  in the 
current parliament, a majority government of 101 seats had to 
be formed from the 159 non-communist seats, meaning 64% of 
the non-communist seats were required. This has contributed 
to the instability of recent coalitions, two of which 
collapsed since the 2002 elections.  Prime Minister Paroubek 
sees a solution in eventually bringing a reformed Communist 
Party into the political mainstream (with Paroubek's 
political calculation likely being that a reformed Communist 
Party would in the end differ little from his CSSD, allowing 
the Social Democrats to eliminate KSCM as a rival).  But for 
the coming electoral term, the KSCM remains unreformed and 
therefore will not be a formal coalition partner for any 
party, including CSSD.  While this will once again mean 
reduced maneuvering space to form a majority coalition, 
Paroubek has altered the playing field by putting on the 
table the option of a minority CSSD government with KSCM 
support -- a step that he believes would support his goal of 
reforming the KSCM and eventually bringing them into the 
mainstream. 
 
4. (U) CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS. One of the small parties that has 
played the role of kingmaker through most of the 
post-communist era is the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL). But 
this party is increasingly out of step in this overwhelmingly 
secular nation. The Czechs, unlike their neighbors in Poland, 
have the lowest rate of church attendance in the EU; they 
have the highest rate of divorce and the lowest rate of 
childbirth in the EU.  The Social Democrats recently passed, 
with the help of the Communists, a law permitting the 
registration of same-sex partnerships (subsequently vetoed by 
the President).  The Christian Democrats, on the other hand, 
want more state aid for churches, closer ties with the 
Vatican, a ban on same-sex partnerships, and numerous other 
measures that have very little popular support.  In the last 
two elections, the party received just under 10%. But in 
recent pre-election polls, the Christian Democrats are 
drawing between 4 and 8%. The decreasing support for this 
traditional kingmaker means that the major parties will be 
less able to rely on their seats when putting together 
majority governments. 
 
5. (U) LIBERALS.  The inability of Czech liberals to organize 
themselves into a sustainable political organization is 
another factor that makes it difficult to form lasting, 
predictable, reliable coalitions. The current liberal party 
in parliament with 10 seats, the Freedom Union (US-DEU), is 
the third member of the current coalition.  It barely 
registers in pre-election polls, and no one expects the party 
will survive this election.  Its demise is largely of its own 
making.  Early this year, when it was clear that the party 
would not get the 5% needed for entry into parliament, or 
even the 3% needed for post-election reimbursement, party 
leaders held a meeting to decide what to do. Some among the 
 
PRAGUE 00000574  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
party said it didn't make sense to waste money on a hopeless 
election and urged the party to "sit this one out," thereby 
saving funds for the local and Senate elections in the fall. 
However, party chair and current Justice Minister Pavel Nemec 
and others decided to give the election a try, but on a 
completely different tack. The "New Freedom Union" was 
launched, and now the coalition member solicits support from 
protesters, anarchists, graffiti artists, consumers of 
marijuana, and those who just "want to live a little or 
completely differently." 
6. (U) Two emerging extraparliamentary parties, the Greens 
(SZ) and the Independents/European Democrats (SNK/ED), have 
constituencies similar to the voter base of the original 
Freedom Union, namely well educated, young, urban liberals. 
Freedom Union's demise will make it easier for these two 
parties to cross the 5% threshold for entry to parliament, 
though it's too early to say for certain whether those 
parties will split the vote, or the Greens will capture all 
the attention, as recent polls have indicated. The Greens are 
polling between 4 and 10%. The European Democrats received 
more than 250,000 votes in the June 2004 elections for the 
European parliament, an election Freedom Union did not enter. 
A similar turnout for SNK/ED would put them over 5%.  But, 
particularly in light of the inability of any liberal party 
to survive since 1989, the real question is whether either of 
these new parties, largely untested at the national level, 
will prove to be reliable coalition partners. 
7. (U) WOMEN IN POLITICS AND OTHER POPULAR DISAFFECTION. 
Although the Czech Republic is very progressive on many 
issues, women are still dramatically under-represented at the 
highest levels of government. Two explanations are offered. 
The first is that men don't want women in positions of power. 
The second is that Czech politics is a dirty, crooked 
business and that emancipated women, with a wide range of 
choices, would rather do other things. In the current 
government, the Prime Minister and the five Deputy Prime 
Ministers are all men. Only two of the seventeen cabinet 
members are women (Education Minister Petra Buzkova and 
Informatics Minister Dana Berova).  Buzkova is leaving 
politics this summer, though she might run later for the 
Senate. Berova,s ministry will probably be eliminated. Each 
of the 14 regional governors is a man. The major cities all 
have men as mayors. The result, or perhaps the underlying 
cause, is that politics is perceived as horse-trading 
conducted by men in smoky back rooms, and not something 
determined by the publicly-made electoral choices of the 
public, half of which is female. This is one element of 
larger popular dissatisfaction with politics, particularly at 
the national level, which is fed as well by repeated 
corruption scandals. 
8. (U) ELECTORAL RULES. Another element creating a distance 
between voters and their elected officials is the 
technicalities of the Czech electoral system. Voters receive 
party lists in the mail days before the election. They take 
the lists to the voting booth, place the list of their chosen 
party into an envelope, and drop the envelope in the ballot 
box. Lists for all other parties are dropped in an adjacent 
trash bin. The voters choose a party, not a candidate. The 
electoral lists are drawn up by local party officials. There 
is no primary system in which voters can have a say in 
determining their candidate. Moreover, the president is 
elected by the members of Parliament, not directly.  Senators 
are the only national officials directly elected. 
9. (SBU) COMMENT. None of the factors outline above are new 
(with the exception of PM Paroubek's new stance towards the 
KSCM).  We see no signs that the upcoming elections will 
produce results that will give the Czech Republic a 
government that is either stronger than recent governments 
have been, or one that is better able to connect with its 
citizens.  Rather, as will be discussed further in septel, we 
expect a close election that will be followed by many weeks 
of closed-door negotiations between party leaders and the 
President, the immediate result of which will probably be 
only greater popular disgust with the political process. 
DODMAN