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Viewing cable 06LIMA2039, THE GARCIA-HUMALA DEBATE: THE TWO TALK PAST EACH
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06LIMA2039 | 2006-05-23 22:06 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Lima |
VZCZCXYZ0013
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHPE #2039/01 1432206
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 232206Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0619
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3417
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6758
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9478
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY QUITO 0357
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0540
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 002039
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: THE GARCIA-HUMALA DEBATE: THE TWO TALK PAST EACH
OTHER TO THEIR TARGET AUDIENCES
REF: A. LIMA 1974
¶B. LIMA 1887
¶C. LIMA 1852
Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly.
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (SBU) APRA's Alan Garcia and Union por el Peru's (UPP)
Ollanta Humala talked past one another in their 5/21
"debate," aiming their presentations at separate target
audiences. Garcia, addressing the fifty percent of the
population who did not vote for either run-off finalist,
sought to portray himself as an elder statesman who stands
for "responsible change" and has learned from his prior
mistakes. Humala concentrated on his base of support among
Peru's marginalized majority, starting off by combatively
challenging the debate format and the legitimacy of Peruvian
democracy, and proceeding through an assemblage of populist
declarations and accusations of misgovernment and corruption
by Garcia's 1985-90 administration. Garcia countered
effectively at times, trying to link Humala to imprisoned
former national security advisor Vladimiro Montesinos as well
as to Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales and Fidel Castro, but Humala
scored points too, particularly by highlighting the APRA
candidate's failure to state a clear position on the Free
Trade Agreement with the U.S. or on whether he would pardon
Montesinos. Two polls of Lima residents the day after found
that most thought Garcia had "won" the debate, but it does
not appear that the contest will change many voters' minds.
END SUMMARY.
---------------------------
HUMALA'S PRE-SHOW THEATRICS
---------------------------
¶2. (U) The debate started nearly 20 minutes late due to
Humala's tardiness. Though Humala claimed that his arrival
was delayed by APRA supporters, journalists observed that he
was dropped off five blocks from the debate site at the
National Archeological and Anthropological Museum and, in the
course of a leisurely walk, he chose to stop off at a store
to buy water. His arrival at the museum led to a mob scene
with the press, which caused further delay. Upon reaching
the podium Humala, dressed in an open-necked shirt and jacket
(sans tie), placed a small Peruvian flag on the podium.
Additional time was consumed as the moderator, "Peru 21"
editor Alvaro Augusto Rodrich, insisted that both podiums be
kept equally free of decorations. When Humala refused to
remove the flag himself, the moderator did so.
------------------------------------
THE CANDIDATES' DIFFERENT APPROACHES
------------------------------------
¶3. (SBU) When the debate finally began, it soon became
clear that the two candidates were taking completely
different approaches. Garcia, who seemed to be addressing
the fifty percent of the population who voted for candidates
other than the two run-off finalists, sought to portray
himself as an elder statesman who stands for "responsible
change" and has learned from his prior mistakes. His
presentation concentrated on providing concrete examples as
to how an APRA government would address the five topics
chosen for discussion (democracy/human rights, economic
policy, social policy/anti-corruption, decentralization,
citizen security), all the while preaching cooperation with
other political parties.
¶4. (SBU) Humala, on the other hand, made a confrontational
appeal to his disaffected base amongst Peru's marginalized
majority. He opened his first presentation by questioning
the legitimacy of Peru's current democracy, claiming that it
was controlled by powerful domestic economic interests and
transnational companies. By the time his closing statement
came about, Humala (Humala who is less experienced as a
speaker than Garcia) substituted volume for passion and
shouted out a list of his commitments: setting a public
example of austerity, overturning the 1993 Constitution,
calling for a constitutional assembly, fighting corruption,
reclaiming natural resources for the state, and promoting
Latin American integration. He concluded by awkwardly
exclaiming his full name as if he were declaiming a
proclamation.
----------------------------
THE THRUST AND COUNTERTHRUST
----------------------------
¶5. (U) Both candidates went after the other though no more
so than is characteristic of U.S. Presidential debates.
Humala questioned Garcia's integrity (citing a corruption
prosecution that was foreclosed by the statute of
limitations), the APRA candidate's prior government (reading
from a World Bank report blaming some 17,000 infant deaths on
the economic crisis brought about by Garcia's policies), and
his cronies (imprisoned former Interior Minister Agustin
Mantilla). Humala also addressed Montesinos' recent claims
that Humala's 2000 uprising was designed as a smokescreen to
assist in the former national security advisor's escape
(Septel) by turning it on its head, insisting that this
demonstrated that Montesinos favored his opponent, and
challenging Garcia to promise not/not to pardon Montesinos.
(Comment: Given Garcia's weak record as President from
1985-90, it was in fact surprising that Humala did not make
more of that experience. End Comment.)
¶6. (U) Garcia, as noted, took a more calculating approach,
ignoring most of Humala's charges and waiting for openings.
Thus, when Humala asked Garcia whether he would liberate
Montesinos, the APRA candidate responded that Humala had
already done so via his 2000 "uprising," but Garcia did
not/not reply to Humala's pointed question as to whether he
would issue a pardon if elected. Garcia countered Humala's
attacks on his government (which were not followed up by the
UPP candidate) by responding to the Comandante that most of
Peru's problems are due to the fact that it has been governed
for most of the past fifty years by military officers, adding
that a prosperous future depended upon democratic, not
authoritarian, leaders. In addition, Garcia sought to tie
Humala to the Chavez-Morales-Castro axis, as well as to
Humala's brother Antauro's 2005 armed uprising in
Andahuaylas, which resulted in the death of four policemen
(Ref C).
-----------------------
POSITIONS ON THE ISSUES
-----------------------
¶7. (U) The debate was organized around five themes:
democracy, governability, and human rights; economic policy
and fight against poverty; social policy and anti-corruption;
decentralization; and citizen security. Candidates took
turns on the issues with a 3 minute presentation, 2 minute
rebuttal, and one minute closing time each. There
presentations can be summarized as follows:
Democracy, governability, and human rights:
-- Garcia called for a new democracy that respects freedom
and resists authoritarianism. He identified economic growth
and investment as central to this democracy and noted that a
constitutional assembly was not necessary.
-- Humala said that Peru's current democracy does not/not
represent the majority of Peruvians, and is beholden to
domestic economic interests and transnational companies. He
added that governability does not equate with social peace
and that a majority of Peruvians were preoccupied with a lack
of basic necessities (electricity and water). Humala called
for a new constitution, a new democracy, and a
re-distribution of power. He also called for implementing
the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation
Commission.
Economic policy and poverty:
-- Garcia said economic and social growth were necessary to
transform Peru into a first world country and surpass Chile.
He proposed building a mega-port in the south, promoting
natural gas, increasing agricultural exports with help from
an agricultural bank, and developing commerce, especially in
the southern departments. Garcia also advocated for strict
adherence to legal requirements for overtime pay and respect
for labor rights. He emphasized the need for foreign
investment, warning that otherwise these funds and technology
would be snapped up by Chile.
-- Humala claimed the country's macro-economic growth has led
to increased inequality and exclusion. He offered an
alternative to the "neo-liberal" model that focused on
building internal markets and promised growth for all, not
just a few. He was particularly critical of the emphasis on
exploitation of natural resources, which he said belong to
the State, and said his government would review contracts of
mining companies that were not paying royalties. Humala also
said he would revise the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S.
(challenging Garcia to take a position on this issue,
something the APRA leader ignored) and proposed returning to
the 1979 Constitution through a Constitutional Assembly.
Social policy and anti-corruption:
-- Garcia said his priorities were to create jobs, improve
education by increasing teacher salaries and instituting
longer class days, improve health care, and provide
affordable housing. Garcia called for a reduction in
government salaries and for the money saved to be used for
programs to end hunger and illiteracy, as well as to provide
water for those without access. He pledged to fight
narcotrafficking by controlling precursor chemicals.
-- Humala proposed increases in spending on child nutrition,
water infrastructure, and police and doctor salaries. He also
expressed strong support for labor rights.
Decentralization:
-- Both candidates were strong advocates of decentralization
and empowering the regions. Garcia called for increased
delegation of fiscal management and decision making. He
criticized President Toledo's approach to regionalization as
insufficient and blamed the Ministry of Economy and Financing
for blocking regional governments' infrastructure projects.
-- Humala said decentralization would help solve the
education and unemployment problems. Humala called for a
50/50 split of resources between the regions and the central
government and said he would eliminate the prefect and
sub-prefect positions. Humala also took the notion of
decentralization a step further by backing the creation of
regional and municipal police forces.
Citizen security:
-- Garcia emphasized order and stability if elected,
distinguishing himself from Humala as the candidate who
supports a unitary National Police. Garcia proposed more
police stations, more officers, increased sentences for
repeat offenders, and the death penalty for child rapists.
He also pledged to re-equip and strengthen the armed forces.
-- Humala tried to connect Garcia with the terrorist activity
that increased during the latter's presidency. He proposed
empowering mayors to set citizen security policy tailoring it
as appropriate to local needs. Humala also distinguished
himself from Garcia by proposing a greater role for local
self-defense organizations (Garcia replied that informal
vigilante groups smacked of Chavez- or Castro-style control
mechanisms).
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COMMENT: WHO WON?
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¶8. (SBU) Neither candidate scored a clear knockout blow
during the debate, which is not surprising given that they
mostly talked past each other and to their separate target
audiences. In polls taken in Lima the day after inquiring as
to who performed better, Garcia came out ahead 57 to 22
percent in the Apoyo survey, and by 61.8-20.1 percent in a
CPI poll. The Apoyo poll found that 10 percent have changed
their voting intention, while CPI concluded that Garcia would
gain slightly as a result of the debate. In sum, the two
candidates offered few surprises and their 90 minute verbal
give-and-take probably will have only a marginal effect on
the outcome of the election. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE