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Viewing cable 06LIMA1995, PERU'S FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC SURPRISE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1995 2006-05-22 19:48 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1995/01 1421948
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221948Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0575
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3408
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9461
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY QUITO 0349
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0531
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2402
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 001995 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC AND EB/IFD/OMA 
STATE PASS USTR (BHARMAN) 
STATE PASS AID (LAC/SA) 
TREASURY FOR G. SIGNORELLI 
COMMERCE FOR 4331/MAC/WH/MCAMERON 
DEPT OF ENERGY FOR D. PUMPHREY/ GARY WARD/SARAH 
LADISLAW/MANOLIS PRINIOTAKIS 
DEPT PASS TO INT/USGS/RESTON FOR DMENZIE/AGURMENDI 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD ENRG SOCI PGOV PE
SUBJECT: PERU'S FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC SURPRISE 
 
REF: LIMA 1825 
 
1. (U) Summary:  Just-released Q106 economic results 
indicate that Peru's economy grew 6.85 percent for the 
quarter, surprising the GOP and analysts alike.  Given 
January's and February's relatively moderate growth rates of 
4.4 percent and 4.9 percent, March's 10.7 percent growth not 
only exceeded analysts' projections but set a nine-year high 
for monthly GDP growth.  End Summary 
 
Strong Growth Continues 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Peru's economy grew for the 19th consecutive quarter, 
expanding 6.85 percent between January and March 2006, 
according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance.  Exports 
continued to play a strong role in GDP growth, growing 22 
percent to $4.6 billion.  Imports reached $3.4 billion, a 28 
percent increase, including nearly $1 billion in capital 
goods imports.  Although still under control, inflation has 
been inching upwards, registering 2.9 percent on an 
annualized basis. 
 
March Came in Like a Lion... 
---------------------------- 
 
3. (U) Based on January's and February's solid, if 
unspectacular GDP growth of 4.4 and 4.9 percent 
respectively, analysts had been predicting quarterly growth 
of around 5 percent.  Practically all sectors of the economy 
grew at a faster pace in March than for the quarter as a 
whole, although local press focused on dramatic increases in 
construction and fishing as the primary drivers of March's 
(and therefore the quarter's) success.  Construction and 
construction-related manufacturing activities grew 20 
percent in the first quarter, especially in the urban 
commercial and residential real estate markets.  The fishing 
sector grew 38 percent and fishing-related manufacturing 
(fishmeal and canning) grew 93 percent in March, driven 
largely by the GOP's decision in late March to lift the ban 
on anchovy fishing in the north that had been in place in 
2005. 
 
...But Did it Go Out Like a Lamb? 
----------------------------------- 
4. (U) There are also indications that the economy has 
cooled off since March.  Reftel reported on a slowdown in 
the growth rate in textile production.  Construction 
industry sources report that builders have taken a wait-and- 
see approach to the elections -- further confirmed by a 
dramatically lower growth rate in cement sales (2.4 percent 
year-on-year for April versus 14.2, 15.1, and 22.5 percent 
growth for the first three months).  And, imports grew only 
4.1 percent in April, significantly below the 26 percent 
average growth rate over the last 20 months.  (Note: Q1 2006 
export results are not yet available.  End note.) 
 
Inflation Bears Watching 
------------------------ 
5. (U) Although inflation remains within the Central Bank's 
target ceiling, it increased steadily in the first quarter 
to 2.9 percent annualized.  Inflation was driven largely by 
supply shocks in fresh vegetables, potatoes and other roots, 
and sugar (inflation was 1.6 percent excluding these 
products).  There is some concern that continued high 
gasoline prices will eventually translate into higher 
transport costs.  Given these risks, analysts and the 
Central Bank will be closely monitoring inflation in the 
coming months. 
 
It's a Good Start 
----------------- 
5. (U) Based in part on March's strong results and in part 
on increasing confidence among analysts and investors (based 
on recent opinion polls) that Alan Garcia will be the next 
president, 2006 GDP targets are likely to be revised upwards 
in the next few weeks to between 5.5 and 6 percent. 
 
STRUBLE