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Viewing cable 06LIMA1974, VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: ALL EYES ON THE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1974 2006-05-19 20:05 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1974/01 1392005
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 192005Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0551
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3396
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9451
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY QUITO 0345
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0524
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6748
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4255
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 001974 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:  ALL EYES ON THE 
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE 
 
REF: A. LIMA 1887 
 
     B. LIMA 1852 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  The excitement of the first round of 
voting in the Peruvian presidential election campaign has 
lessened now that the run-off has come down to Union por el 
Peru's (UPP) Ollanta Humala and APRA's Alan Garcia.  While 
the two candidates continue to preside over rallies of their 
faithful supporters, the media and general public are less 
interested in the daily give-and-take on issues and campaign 
promises.  Instead, the focus has been on whether Humala and 
Garcia will engage in a nationally televised debate, which, 
after a week of negotiations was decided in the affirmative: 
Sunday, 5/21, at 20:00.  Humala's U.S. visa travails and 
APRA's accusations that the UPP was engaged in dirty tricks 
briefly captured the headlines, before taking a back seat to 
more newsworthy (in the Peruvian context) accounts of drunken 
escapades on President Toledo's plane ride to Spain and 
Fujimori's release on bail.  The more professional Apoyo and 
DATUM polls have Garcia ahead by 12-14 percent, but a less 
reliable survey recently garnered attention by claiming the 
APRA candidate's lead is over 20 percent.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU)  Political commentators and poll analysts attribute 
the relative lack of interest in the presidential campaign to 
the fact that the two finalists have the highest negative 
ratings of any of the original main candidates.  Thus, they 
concluded, for the fifty percent of eligible voters who cast 
their ballots for other contenders or in blank, the 6/4 
run-off ballot has come down to a choice between which 
candidate is seen as the lesser of two evils.  With low 
public attention to the campaign, the media has not hesitated 
to shift its focus whenever a juicy scandal, such as the 
drunken escapades of an unnamed Foreign Ministry officer 
aboard the presidential jet bound for Spain, appear.  On 
5/19, news that ex-President Alberto Fujimori had been 
released on bail, consigned all campaign coverage to the back 
pages. 
 
3.  (SBU)  With waning interest in the candidates and their 
specific policy proposals, the media and public's attention 
with respect to the electoral contest has centered on whether 
Humala and Garcia will hold a public debate.  APRA 
co-Secretary General Jorge del Castillo and UPP Second Vice 
President candidate Carlos Torres met daily for a week to 
hammer out the terms of the contest, all the while accusing 
the other's party of seeking excuses to avoid debating.  In 
the end they agreed on an hour-long session, to be held 
Sunday, 5/21, at the National Archeological and 
Anthropological Museum in Lima, and televised by the State 
Channel, with private stations free to pick up the broadcast 
if they wish.  Augusto Alvaro Rodrich, editor of the daily 
"Peru 21" was chosen as the moderator.  The two candidates 
will address five topics, with each given three minutes to 
state his respective views, two minutes to reply to the 
other's statement, and then one minute to respond to the 
other's reply.  The five topics are: 
 
--  Democracy, governability and human rights; 
--  Economic policy and the fight against poverty; 
--  Social policy and anti-corruption policy; 
--  Decentralization; and 
--  Citizen security. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Garcia, in his public comments, is pushing the 
message that he stands for "responsible change," while 
dismissing Humala's qualifications to handle the presidency, 
stressing his opponent's ties to Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales, 
criticizing the UPP's economic proposals as populist and 
irresponsible, particularly Humala's claim that a UPP 
government would reduce fuel costs by 30 percent, and 
accusing the Humala camp of being engaged in dirty tricks. 
The latter accusations were bolstered when, following a raid 
by Public Ministry and National Electoral Board (JNE) 
officials on a print shop in Lima that resulted in the 
seizure of 60,000 anti-Garcia leaflets, Humala's father Isaac 
appeared claiming to be the printer's attorney. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Humala's initial attempt to counter his own 
 
identification with Chavez by trying to drag the USG into the 
campaign over his visa revocation (Ref B), petered out after 
the press accurately reported that the revocation occurred 
months before Humala became a candidate and that the 
Humalistas were the ones who raised the issue publicly.  The 
Ambassador also took the wind out of Humala's sails when he 
publicly offered to help facilitate the candidate's 
application for a new visa on 5/12.  Humala himself made it 
clear that this was a dead issue on 5/17, following his 
meeting with visiting WHA P/DAS Charles Shapiro and the 
Ambassador. 
 
6.  (SBU)  The UPP campaign is unfocused, at times attacking 
Garcia for the failures of his first presidency (1985-90), 
then shifting to launching promises to provide universal 
health care and to lower fuel prices by reducing the 
government's taxation on petroleum and gas products.  During 
the negotiations over a presidential debate, the Humalistas 
were put on the defensive over APRA's charges that the 
formers' anti-Garcia television ads were "dirty tricks," and 
have agreed to discontinue them as part of the debate accord. 
 
7.  (SBU)  The two most professional polls, carried out by 
the Apoyo and DATUM consultancies, show Garcia ahead by 12-14 
points (Ref A).  A recent poll by the University of Lima, 
however, garnered headlines by claiming that Garcia's lead is 
over 23 percent (61.9 - 38.1).  COMMENT:  Apoyo and DATUM 
carry out polls using more extensive sampling and better 
methodology than other polling firms, and they do so with 
regularity (Apoyo is releasing polls weekly).  Consequently, 
even though Apoyo's and DATUM's numbers may not accurately 
predict the final precise voting totals, they have been 
reliable indicators of voting trends.  As a result, we 
recommend that Peru observers focus on the Apoyo and DATUM 
figures for assessing electoral possibilities, while 
recognizing that surveys released by other polling firms can 
have an impact on how the candidates act, as well as on how 
the media and electorate assess the ongoing campaign.  END 
COMMENT. 
STRUBLE