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Viewing cable 06LIMA1887, GARCIA MAINTAINS COMFORTABLE LEAD OVER HUMALA IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1887 2006-05-16 13:57 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0022
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1887 1361357
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161357Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0467
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3382
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9443
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY QUITO 0335
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0515
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6740
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4250
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 001887 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PE
SUBJECT: GARCIA MAINTAINS COMFORTABLE LEAD OVER HUMALA IN 
APOYO POLL 
 
REF: A. LIMA 1852 
 
     B. LIMA 1815 
     C. LIMA 1807 
     D. LIMA 1799 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  APRA party presidential candidate Alan Garcia 
maintained his double-digit lead over Union por el Peru's 
Ollanta Humala in the latest Apoyo consultancy poll, 
published 5/14.  One significant finding is that the strong 
advantage Unidad Nacional candidate Lourdes Flores had among 
women has transferred to Garcia.  Geographically, the APRA 
candidate was ahead in Lima and all areas of the country save 
the southern Altiplano and the Amazonian jungle, as well as 
in all economic sectors save the poorest "E" group.  The 
Apoyo poll echoed a recent survey by DATUM that showed 
Peruvians consider the U.S. one of their country's best 
friends. END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------- 
THE POLL RESULTS 
---------------- 
 
2.  The Apoyo poll, taken 5/10-12 in 77 provinces around the 
country (representative of 81 percent of the electorate) 
found that Garcia would defeat Humala by 56-44 percent 
amongst those casting valid ballots (excluding the 15 percent 
who said they would vote in blank and the eight percent who 
did not name a preference).  Garcia's margin was down two 
points from last week's Apoyo poll (which had the APRA 
candidate ahead 57-43 percent - Ref D), but this difference 
is statistically neglible as it falls well within the poll's 
claimed 2.2 margin of error. 
 
3.  Regionally, Garcia was strongest in Lima, the northern 
coast and the northern sierra, with over 60 percent support 
in each.  Humala led only in the southern Altiplano and in 
the Amazonian jungle regions.  Garcia led in all economic 
classes except the poorest "E" sector, with wide margins in 
the "A" (90-10), "B" (72-28) and "C" (60-40) sectors, and a 
54-46 percent spread in the "D" sector.  Humala's lead in the 
"E" sector was 56-44 percent, the reverse of Garcia's 
national advantage.  Garcia also was ahead with both sexes, 
although his support is much stronger amongst women (61-39 
percent) than men (52-48 percent).  Amongst the different age 
groups, Garcia's lead ranged between 55 percent (over 40's 
who remember his first presidency) and 58 percent (the 18-24 
year-old sector). 
 
4.  COMMENT:  One of the Apoyo poll's results, however, 
raises questions as to its overall accuracy.  The poll has 
Garcia ahead in Arequipa and the southern coast (52-48 
percent), even though Humala carried this area by a hefty 
margin (with 48 percent support in Arequipa alone) in the 
first round.  This could be an anomoly, or it could reflect 
the fact that Apoyo conducts its surveys primarily in urban 
or suburban areas, and, therefore, that its results do 
not/not represent the unconsulted 19 percent of the 
population living in isolated rural areas.  Consequently, 
this segment of the population could well constitute a 
"hidden" vote for Humala.  If this is the case, Garcia's 
actual margin over Humala would be less than reported by 
Apoyo, likely falling to single digits.  END COMMENT. 
 
----------------------------- 
VIEWS OF THE U.S. AND THE FTA 
----------------------------- 
 
5.  When asked which country they considered to be Peru's 
best friend, respondents picked Brazil first (21 percent) and 
the U.S. second.  When asked with which country Peru should 
have increased economic relations, the U.S. came out on top 
(41 percent), with Brazil second (15 percent).  Furthermore, 
68 percent of respondents said that they would emigrate if 
they could, with most (32 percent) saying they would head for 
the U.S.  These favorable views of the U.S. echo the results 
of last week's DATUM poll, although the latter found an even 
greater favorable rating for Uncle Sam (Ref A). 
STRUBLE