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Viewing cable 06LIMA1765, EVANGELICAL CANDIDATE LOOKS TO THE FUTURE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1765 2006-05-08 19:33 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1765/01 1281933
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081933Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0304
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3348
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6717
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9408
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY QUITO 0304
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0484
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS LIMA 001765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DRL FOR IRF OFFICE 
G FOR LAURA LEDERER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: EVANGELICAL CANDIDATE LOOKS TO THE FUTURE 
 
REF: A. 05 LIMA 4197 
     B. 05 LIMA 3415 
     C. 05 LIMA 3414 
     D. LIMA 1220 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please Handle Accordingly. 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1.  (U)  Ambassador met with Evangelical Pastor and 
Renovacion Nacional (RN) presidential candidate Humberto Lay 
on 4/26 to discuss Lay's analysis of the Peruvian political 
scene.  Lay proved to be the biggest surprise of the recent 
(4/9) first-round presidential vote.  He garnered nearly five 
percent of the ballots cast, a level of support that 
catapulted him from the ranks of Peru's many mini-candidates 
up to the level of second-tier contenders like Martha Chavez 
and Valentin Paniagua.  Lay's group could yet score 
congressional seats, though that possibility is fading.  Lay 
says that RN will run candidates in regional elections.  One 
key theme he stressed was anti-corruption.  Right now, Lay 
wants to build the Evangelicals' political brain trust.  He 
and his group are being aggressively courted by APRA.  Lay 
and his followers have come a long way in a short time and 
should not be underestimated (Refs A-D).  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Ambassador met with Evangelical Pastor and Renovacion 
Nacional (RN) presidential candidate Humberto Lay on 4/26 to 
discuss Lay's analysis of the Peruvian political scene.  Lay 
expressed satisfaction with his campaign, which he said had 
struggled against Evangelicals' traditional disdain for the 
immorality of politics and a late start.  He noted that RN's 
campaign only fired off on February 25, with a successful 
50,000-person gathering at Campo de Marte in Lima. 
 
3.  (U) Despite the late start, Lay noted that RN had polled 
just under 5 percent of the vote nationwide and had done 
particularly well in some areas.  Lay ticked off his vote 
totals in some geographic regions: in the jungle (Loreto), he 
got 13 percent; in Madre de Dios, 21 percent; in Huanuco, 8-9 
percent.  (Note: Embassy election observers working for the 
OAS noticed that Lay polled 9-10 percent in Carabayllo, a 
marginal, northern cone district of Lima.  RN also had 
observers in place at most tables, in contrast to other minor 
parties.)  In all, Lay was pleased.  His party's immediate 
challenge, he said, is to make the minimum number of votes to 
gain congressional representation.  Beyond that, Lay is 
looking toward organizing for regional elections in November. 
 He said that RN would not seek alliances with traditional 
parties, but might consider alliances with regional or local 
organizations. 
 
4.  (U) Lay identified his biggest challenge as changing 
Evangelicals' traditional disdain for politics as a corrupt, 
worldly activity to be avoided.  Beyond that, RN is also 
looking to market its moral message to non-Evangelical 
Peruvians, promising cleaner government.  Not all of RN's 
candidates in the recent election were Evangelicals, though 
that group remains its base. 
 
5.  (U) Lay identified the issues most important to RN: 
 
-- A law guaranteeing religious equality. 
 
-- The fight against poverty, social exclusion, and upper 
class indifference. 
 
-- Corruption. 
 
6.  (U) Lay stressed corruption as a key point for the 
Evangelicals.  He lamented that corruption has become so 
generalized in Peru, that it is expected.  He cited the 
popular cliche about former President Fujimori -- "he robbed, 
but he got things done" -- as an example of how far the 
country has fallen.  Lay asserted that generalized corruption 
would continue to plague Peru until the countries leaders 
could provide examples of honest leadership. 
 
------------------------------ 
Lay's Connections with the U.S. 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (U) Lay noted that both he personally and his campaign 
had had few contacts with their counterparts in the U.S.  He 
mentioned that he had met with members of "the Republican 
Coalition" (the Christian Coalition?) in Washington, DC in 
October 2005.  He said the U.S. activists had "opened their 
doors" to him, but that no concrete cooperation resulted as 
Lay himself became submerged in forming up his party and 
starting his presidential campaign.  Lay stated that 
education was the next big task for RN. 
 
8.  (U) Lay added that RN had run its own Institute of 
Political Science before the campaign, to train up young 
people in politics and the proper relationship between faith 
and politics, but that this too had lapsed with the 
campaign's onset.  Lay said it was time to re-start this 
initiative.  Ambassador suggested that Lay give Embassy the 
names of possible IV candidates and potential cooperative 
activities with IRI and NDI were also suggested. 
 
------------------------------ 
The Fight to Get Into Congress 
------------------------------ 
 
9.  (SBU) Lay said that he expected RN to gain four 
congressional seats.  He also alleged that RN's vote totals 
had been subject to downward revision by Peru Posible 
activists.  (Note: RN seems to be giving up on crossing the 
electoral minimum to enter Congress -- currently, with 70 
percent of the vote tallied nationwide, RN is about 13,000 
votes short of the 4 percent required for representation in 
the Congress in their Congressional vote.  In a recent move, 
RN is arguing before the National Elections Board that the 
party's presidential vote total, which exceeded their votes 
for Congress, should be used to determine the party's 
eligibility for the legislature.  End Note.) 
 
--------------------- 
APRA Helps/Courts Lay 
--------------------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Lay acknowledged that APRA had helped him by 
providing him with copies of vote tabulations from various 
precincts.  Lay stated that future RN Congress reps would 
work with other blocs, but would not engage in binding 
alliances that implied support today for some undefined quid 
pro quo tomorrow.  Instead, he said, RN reps would cooperate 
with other blocs in Congress on an issue-by-issue basis. 
(Note: Help with vote tabulations is just one part of a charm 
offensive that APRA has launched in Lay's direction. 
According to sources in the Evangelical movement, APRA reps 
are also offering speedy passage of a law guaranteeing 
religious equality and the inclusion of Evangelical pastors 
in the pre-inauguration ceremonies for the President-elect, a 
ritual that has until now only involved the Catholic Church. 
End Note.) 
 
-------- 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
11.  (U) In other meetings with Poloff, Lay has said that his 
campaign resembles Humala's, that he, too, is anti-system and 
goes after the vote of those in the most humble social 
sectors.  Observations of his campaign rallies and his vote 
totals in marginal areas tend to bear this out.  It is likely 
that his 4-plus vote percentage might otherwise have gone to 
Humala or to blank ballots.  Lay and his sector are likely to 
exercise increasing influence in Peruvian political life. 
STRUBLE