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Viewing cable 06BOGOTA4584, WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - MAY 16-23

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BOGOTA4584 2006-05-24 14:07 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0012
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #4584/01 1441407
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241407Z MAY 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5207
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 0438
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6825
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1898
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY LIMA 3787
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2836
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 9165
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4429
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2061
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 3557
RUEAWJC/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 004584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - MAY 16-23 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for Internet distribution 
 
1.  (U) Weekly election roundup for May 16-23. 
 
2.  (U) Final Polls: Uribe Holds Steady, Serpa Slips: The 
latest polls, released by Bogota daily El Tiempo May 21, both 
confirmed the likelihood of Uribe's first round victory and 
previewed what might be a surprise ending to the race for 
second place.  According to the poll, Uribe continues to hold 
steady in the mid-50 percent range, with 54.7 percent of 
likely voters saying they will re-elect the president on 
Sunday.  The same poll, however, found that leftist Polo 
Democratico Alternativo (PDA) candidate Carlos Gaviria is 
likely to defeat third-time Liberal candidate Horacio Serpa 
for second place: Gaviria is predicted to receive 23.4 
percent of the vote, while Serpa's numbers have fallen from a 
mid-April high of 20 percent to a mere 10 percent.  If poll 
predictions are borne out, the Liberal Party will finish 
outside the top two spots for the first time in the nine 
elections since the end of the Conservative and Liberal power 
sharing agreement (1958-1974).  Former Bogota mayor Antanas 
Mockus, whose campaign has developed little traction, 
registered only 2.1 percent of the likely vote.  The other 
two candidates, Carlos Rincon and Enrique Parejo, continue to 
hover under half a percent. 
 
3.  (U) End of the Trail, Part 1 - Uribe Does His Best 
Costena Impersonation:  Public campaigning officially ended 
on May 21 although candidates can continue to campaign at 
private events during this last week.  President Uribe closed 
the Bogota portion of his campaign with a rally in Plaza 
Bolivar May 19.  He spent the weekend trying to bolster his 
support along the Atlantic Coast, where his polling numbers 
are weakest, through stops in several cities, including 
Valledupar and Cartagena.  Wearing a white guyabera and using 
coastal idioms, he encouraged voters to get to the polls next 
Sunday in order to avoid "surprises" Monday morning.  During 
his speech in Valledupar, Uribe announced the creation of a 
subsidy for people who have been disabled as a result of the 
internal conflict.  Uribe also "apologized" for not 
participating in any organized debates with his opponents, 
saying that he had spent the last four years debating with 
them. 
 
4.  (U) End of the Trail, Part 2 - Gaviria Fills the Plaza 
Bolivar: Two days after Uribe's end-of-public-campaign rally 
at Plaza Bolivar in Bogota, PDA candidate Carlos Gaviria held 
his own event.  The plaza was filled with yellow-clad Gaviria 
supporters, including Colombian writer Laura Restrepo. 
Despite the rain, supporters stood for six hours to listen to 
pop singer Andrea Echeverri and the candidate's twenty-minute 
speech, in which he promised to open a dialogue with all 
armed groups if elected.  Earlier in the day, Gaviria attend 
campaign events in both Choco and Medellin.  In Medellin, 
both Uribe's and Gaviria's home Department, Gaviria told a 
group of 10,000, "Uribe must be stopped."  Gaviria will make 
a final stop in Putumayo and Huila Departments, deferred from 
the end of April, so that he could attend Liliana Gaviria's 
funeral (sister of former president Cesar Gaviria), before 
returning to Bogota. 
 
5.  (U) End of the Trail, Part 3 - Serpa Pauses in Bogota 
After Weeks of Travel: Liberal candidate Horacio Serpa ended 
a month of campaign travels throughout the country with 11 
separate stops in and around Bogota on Sunday, May 21. 
Choosing not to focus on his falling numbers, Serpa told 
supporters that Sunday's poll indicated that there would be a 
second round given the margin of error, contrary to 
conventional wisdom.  Serpa's recent speeches and interviews 
have highlighted his childhood poverty and his promises to 
attend to the needs of Colombia's poor if elected.  Serpa 
will continue his travels this week, visiting Departments in 
the east, west and coastal regions of Colombia before 
returning to Bogota on the eve of the elections. 
 
6.  (U) Confusion For Colombians Voting Overseas: The GOC has 
worked to ensure more Colombians living overseas vote in 
Sunday's elections.  Efforts included creating over 100 
polling stations in the United States and other countries, 
including France, Spain, Germany, and Venezuela.  Conflicting 
information on required identity documents may undermine 
efforts to get out the foreign vote, however.  The National 
Election Council (NEC) first said voters could present a 
passport, but announced on May 18 that all voters must have a 
Colombian national identity card.  Later that same day, the 
NEC reversed itself, saying voters without national ID cards 
could use their passports. 
 
7.  (SBU) Ballot Counter Fraud Measures in Place: Emboffs met 
with Thomas Greg & Sons, the company that prints and 
distributes all Colombian election materials, including 
ballots and proof of voting documents.  Thomas Greg uses a 
barcode system to confirm all ballots are accounted for and 
sent to the correct locations for counting.  In addition, 
they use a sophisticated anti-fraud scheme involving 
compartmentalizing workers and constant electronic 
surveillance  Voting urns are currently being held in guarded 
warehouses throughout Colombia; they will be delivered to 
polling locations at 5:00 AM on election day.  Extra ballots 
and rented aircraft are on standby to deliver replacements in 
the event any voting materials are destroyed or damaged. 
Thomas Greg officials told Emboffs their 2002 election 
contract included design for a Serpa-Uribe runoff; this year, 
runoff preparations were not included.  If a second round is 
necessary, bids would be due 24 hours after the first round 
election.  Thomas Greg said the worst case scenario would 
involve Uribe receiving just under 50 percent and Serpa and 
Gaviria in a dead heat for second.  With the runoff scheduled 
for June 18, only 3 weeks away, any delay in the announcement 
of the two candidates would make it difficult to be ready on 
time. 
WOOD