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Viewing cable 06BOGOTA4238, PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS FINALLY OUT OF THE GATES,

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BOGOTA4238 2006-05-12 21:05 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #4238/01 1322105
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 122105Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4903
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6785
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 7684
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY LIMA 3738
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4375
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 3546
UNCLAS BOGOTA 004238 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS FINALLY OUT OF THE GATES, 
SOME FALL FLAT 
 
REF: BOGOTA 3809 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) President Uribe remains the prohibitive favorite 
with a lead of some thirty points as the May 28 election 
approaches.  The opposition campaigns have not caught fire 
with the electorate and the only "dramas" are whether Uribe 
will win on the first ballot and whether Polo will push the 
Liberals into third place.  The Polo and Liberal nominees are 
floundering, and minor party candidates do not even have 
funds to get their messages out.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Quietly Campaigning for Reelection 
---------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) President Uribe's campaign has been in slow burn mode 
but he recently stepped up his activities as a candidate.  As 
the first incumbent president to seek reelection, Uribe's 
strategy up to now has been to appear more presidential than 
candidate.  While he has held campaign events about five 
times a week for the last month, they have been small and 
outside of "business hours."  Similarly he has not appeared 
in his campaign's television or radio ads.  These ads even 
avoid mentioning his name, using the slogan "Adalante 
Presidente" (Onward President).  Uribe has also declined to 
appear with other candidates in televised debates.  Despite 
being authorized by electoral authorities, no national, 
multi-television channel debates are likely.  The President 
held his first big public events on May 5 and 6, giving a 
speech in front of a large crowd on the Plaza in Ipiales, 
Narino and addressing students at various Bogota and Medellin 
universities. 
 
-------------------------- 
Serpa Plots a New Strategy 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (U) Liberal Party candidate, Horacio Serpa, has also been 
surprisingly quiet but has begun to raise his campaign's 
profile.  After attending and speaking at a large May Day 
event in Bogota, Serpa held a series of walking tours in 
South Bogota, Cucuta (Norte de Santander department), and 
several municipalities in Cundinamarca department in order to 
make personal contact with voters.  Despite this recent 
increase in public events, Serpa's vice-presidential 
candidate, Luis Marulanda Gomez, told Medellin newspaper El 
Colombiano that Serpa will not focus on public speaking 
events, a hallmark of his two previous unsuccessful 
presidential campaigns, but will concentrate on a nationwide 
mass media campaign in a final push before the election. 
 
------------------------------- 
Gaviria Tries to Build Momentum 
------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Emboldened by recent polls from Gallup and Semana 
Magazine that show Carlos Gaviria closing in on Serpa for 
second place, the Polo candidate has stepped up his schedule, 
launching a new publicity campaign on May 2.  Gaviria has 
deployed television ads in primetime on the two largest 
television networks, RCN and Caracol.  He has also begun an 
exhaustive speaking tour, holding events in five departments 
and nine cities in the last week.  Gaviria's focus is that 
social inequality has persisted under the Uribe 
administration.  Gaviria's strategy is to position himself as 
the principal voice for the left and for the underprivileged. 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Minor Candidates Struggle for Funding 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) The four minor candidates, who failed to meet the 
threshold for up-front government funding, have struggled to 
maintain active campaigns.  They  have been limited by their 
lack of resources and have been forced to spend much of their 
time searching for donations.  Former Bogota mayor and 
candidate for the Movimiento Alianza Social Indigina Antanas 
Mockus has begun to auction off donated artwork to keep his 
campaign afloat.  The website for the Movimiento Comunal y 
Comunitario de Colombia does not even mention that their 
candidate, opthamologist Carlos Rincon, is running for 
 
president.  Neither Enrique Parejo, the former Minister of 
Justice, nor his party, the Movimiento Reconstruccion 
Democratica National, have websites.  Finally, Alvaro Leyva 
of the Movimiento de Reconstruction, a former conservative 
long considered to have ties to FARC, has canceled campaign 
events citing security concerns.  Most notably, he decided 
not to participate in a CityTV sponsored unofficial debate 
(reftel).  None of these campaigns have been able to generate 
any momentum and expect to secure less than 5% of the vote 
combined. 
WOOD