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Viewing cable 06BANGKOK2978, THAILAND: INVESTMENT SLOWDOWN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BANGKOK2978 2006-05-17 07:56 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bangkok
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

170756Z May 06
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002978 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB 
COMMERCE FOR 4430/EAP/MAC/OKSA 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR WEISEL 
STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE FOR MATT HILDEBRANDT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: INVESTMENT SLOWDOWN 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 2360 (THAI ECONOMY REACTS TO POLITICAL 
 
        UNCERTAINTY) 
     B. BANGKOK 1665 (POLITICAL PROBLEMS EFFECT ON THAI 
        ECONOMY) 
     C. BANGKOK 551 (MEGAPROJECTS CONFERENCE PRODUCES 
        MORE SMOKE THAN LIGHT) 
     D. BANGKOK 492 (WITH TEMPORARY PATCH 
     E. THAILAND RESUMES APPROVING US SERVICES 
        INVESTMENT UNDER AMITY TREATY) 
 
1. (SBU)  On May 16, Econoff met with Mr. Vittaya Praisuwan, 
Senior Executive Advisor at the Thai Board of Investment 
(BOI). Most foreign investment in Thailand comes in under BOI 
auspices due to the various tax advantages and other benefits 
BOI-approved status confers. Vittaya confirmed that 
applications for investment through the first four months of 
2006 are down almost 47 percent from the same period last 
year (from Bt137.7 billion -US$3.6 billion- to Bt74 billion- 
US$1.9 billion). The BOI does not track actual investments 
completed or when these investments are executed so final 
investment amounts are not available. 
 
2. (SBU) Vittaya attributed the FDI decline to high oil 
prices and the political uncertainty in Thailand that has 
prevailed since late last year. When asked how his 
organization will try and overcome these difficulties, 
Vittaya responded "we will work harder." He also noted that 
historically 60-65 percent of BOI approvals are associated 
with existing investment, so the reduction in investment can 
be interpreted as "simply a delay while the political 
situation works itself out." Bangkok lawyers who work with 
foreign investors have also noted the decline in FDI this 
year. One lawyer who works for the local branch of a major 
international law firm said several of his clients, including 
a large Japanese automotive company, are taking a "wait and 
see" approach to additional Thai investment pending a 
resolution of the political situation. 
 
3. (SBU) From a U.S. aspect, the situation has been 
exacerbated to some degree by confusion at the Ministry of 
Commerce regarding the status of our bilateral Treaty of 
Amity and Economic Relations (AER) which covers US-Thai 
investment (see reftel D). Working level MoC personnel are 
advising callers that they should complete their AER 
applications before June 5 "when it must be renewed." This is 
contrary to what we were told by MoC permanent secretary 
Karun i.e. that the terms of the treaty would remain in 
effect unless the RTG made a proactive decision to terminate. 
We have not been advised of any anticipated action and are 
seeking clarification from Karun regarding the AER's status. 
In the interim, however, lawyers are advising clients that 
unless an application can be completed by June 5, they should 
consider alternative means of investing in Thailand. Such 
confusion has contributed to declining inward investment. 
 
4. (U) Recent data highlight the importance of FDI to the 
Thai economy. The Business Sentiment Index compiled by Bank 
of Thailand has been below 50 for 20 consecutive months 
through March 2006. An index below 50 indicates worsening 
business sentiment. Since December 2005 the index has 
steadily declined, from 45.9 to 44.8 in March 2006. Consumer 
confidence has also declined steadily since December, from 
88.7 to 82.5 in April. A level below 100 means more consumers 
are pessimistic about their future economic prospects than 
optimistic. These data are reflected in the slowdown in 
consumer spending and capital investment so far this year. 
 
5. (SBU) Comment. Thailand has always been a country where 
business is typically conducted through personal 
relationships and in which the government plays a significant 
role in the economy both directly through its spending and 
investment (15 percent of GDP) and indirectly through 
economic policies, SOEs and government-controlled specialized 
financial institutions. With the government in caretaker 
status, any issues that are not strictly routine are not 
being addressed. Pending decisions range from proceeding with 
"megaproject" infrastructure developments to approval for FDI 
that does not fit the strict criteria laid out for BOI. 
Thailand has always operated via someone at the top making 
decisions - the bureaucracy is not empowered and would be 
ill-at-ease if faced with the responsibility. Since the 
February dissolution of government, there has been no one 
with the ability to make many of the decisions that are 
needed to keep "Thailand Inc" running normally, so corporate 
investment gets delayed or is diverte 
d to other nations. No one expected government to be in 
caretaker mode for more than two months. We are now going on 
four months with no certainty on when it will end. 
BOYCE