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Viewing cable 06ZAGREB537, Opposition Takes All In Early Local Elections

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ZAGREB537 2006-04-27 07:57 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO6246
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0537 1170757
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270757Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6077
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000537 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE - BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: Opposition Takes All In Early Local Elections 
 
REF: A) Zagreb 464 
 
B) Zagreb 446 and previous 
 
1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The opposition Social 
Democratic Party (SDP) has managed to enter governing 
coalitions in all three major places where early local 
elections were held on April 9 (reftels), pushing the 
ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) from local 
power in two counties and hanging on to leadership in 
a hotly contested city government.  While these 
isolated elections are too small to draw broad 
conclusions, and the HDZ's hold on central authority 
continues unchallenged, the outcome injects some 
confidence into SDP leaders in the lead-up to 
parliamentary elections expected in late 2007.  END 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
IN POWER, BUT PARTNERS NOT ALL LIKE-MINDED 
------------------------------------------ 
 
2. The only clear victory for the SDP came in Pozega- 
Slavonia County, where the current mayor of the city 
of Pozega, Zdravko Ronko, will become the county 
prefect after leading the party to an outright 
majority.  In Dubrovnik-Neretva County, the SDP signed 
a coalition agreement with the Croatian People's 
Party-Liberal Democrats (HNS) and the independent list 
of ex-HDZ tycoon Stipe Gabric Jambo.  Under the deal, 
Jambo's generally right-wing list will take the 
prefect job as the biggest winner within the new 
coalition.  HDZ prefects were unseated in both 
counties. 
 
3. In the City of Velika Gorica, the Democratic Center 
(DC) party of former justice minister Vesna Skare- 
Ozbolt decided to side with the SDP-HNS-HSLS group 
against its former partner HDZ.  Former Minister of 
Foreign Affairs Tonino Picula of the SDP will return 
to the mayor's office until the next local elections 
ordinarily due in 2009, while the DC will get the 
chairmanship of the City Council. 
 
4. COMMENT: In addition to losing two counties, the 
HDZ is stinging after failing to regain power in 
Velika Gorica despite the fact that Minister of 
Finance Ivan Suker, the former mayor, campaigned 
heavily there with the help of other key cabinet 
ministers.  On the other hand, the SDP may face 
significant challenges in managing these new local 
administrations.  Except in Pozega where SDP's victory 
was clear, the party will have to govern in Dubrovnik 
County and Velika Gorica in coalition with partners 
that are not necessarily politically like-minded. 
 
5. Also, these local governments cannot count on 
understanding and cooperation from HDZ-led central 
government, which may further tie their hands. By 
coincidence or not, the state inspectorate shut down a 
quarry operated by tycoon Stipe Gabric Jambo the very 
day his coalition in Dubrovnik County with the SDP and 
HNS was signed.  While the local HDZ dismissed 
allegations this was in any way linked to the new 
political circumstances, Jambo is convinced the move 
was politically motivated. Prime Minister and HDZ 
President Ivo Sanader used the situation surrounding 
these new coalitions to label its main rival SDP as a 
party of "tradesmen." SDP President Racan rejected the 
accusations noting the HDZ didn't mind tycoons such as 
Jambo while they were in coalition with Sanader's 
party. This bickering will likely subside now that 
negotiations among parties are over, but 
"unprincipled" coalitions such as this in Dubrovnik 
are potentially a weak point for the SDP, which the 
HDZ will certainly continue to target as we approach 
the "big battle" for parliament in 2007.  END COMMENT. 
 
FRANK