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Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON253, SAMOA ELECTIONS: AUSTRALIA AND NZ PREDICT MORE OF

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06WELLINGTON253 2006-04-03 05:30 2011-04-28 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Wellington
VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWL #0253 0930530
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 030530Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2606
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4357
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000253 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/FO AND EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR JO1E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ WS
SUBJECT: SAMOA ELECTIONS: AUSTRALIA AND NZ PREDICT MORE OF 
SAME 
 
(U) Classified by Political-Economic Counselor Katherine B. 
Hadda.  Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Officials of New Zealand's Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and the Australian High 
Commission (Australian HC) in Wellington have been closely 
watching Samoa's elections.  Both anticipate that a high 
number of election petitions and a large volume of candidates 
(especially independents) may delay official results for 
weeks to come.  However a stronger than expected performance 
by the ruling Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) suggests 
its ultimate victory, the outcome our Kiwi and Aussie 
contacts predicted before the race.  While a couple of HRPP 
candidates holding high profile portfolios (justice and 
police) were apparently defeated by independent candidates, 
none of our contacts believe that the election outcome will 
substantially change their country's bilateral relationships 
with Samoa. End Summary. 
 
2. (U) MFAT contacts say preliminary results put Prime 
Minister Tuilaepa Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi and his HRPP 
Party firmly in front with 29 seats (46.2% of the vote), 
extending its 24-year hold on power in the 49-seat 
parliament.  The main opposition Samoa Democratic United 
Party (SDUP) claimed 11 seats, with independents claiming 
eight.  One seat in Faasaleleaga No. 3, remains in a draw 
between an HRPP and SDUP candidate. 
 
3. (C) While the HRPP has managed control of the Samoa 
government for more than two decades, MFAT officials note 
that Samoa elections have historically resulted in a 30 to 
50% turnover in MPs.  Much of this turnover has been between 
members of HRPP, since in Samoa's 42 electorates more than 
one member of the same party may contest a seat.  For 
example, five members for the HRPP and three members of the 
SDUP contested in Faasaleleaga No. 1 electorate.  (Like 
several electorates, Faasaleleaga No 1, also has two 
electorate seats.)  The only other seat that has not been 
preliminary called is Faleata East, where both candidates 
come from HRPP. 
 
4. (C) Further complicating election arithmetic is the sheer 
number of candidates:  211 for 49 seats.  HRPP fielded more 
than a third of candidates, with 78.  As MFAT officials note, 
this high volume dilutes the vote count among each candidate. 
 A candidate challenging election results in his or her 
district needs only to have received half the number of votes 
that the putative winner received.  As each of the many 
candidates tend to receive few votes, this is a relatively 
low threshold.  In the 2001 election cycle, the resolution of 
10 election petitions delayed official election results for 
two weeks.  Both Australian HC and MFAT officials predict a 
longer election delay this cycle, as a number of affidavits 
had been filed even prior to the election and the court 
system is poorly positioned to manage an increased volume. 
However, MFAT believes that HRPP will remain on top, 
especially since several of the close races have SDUP 
candidates only slightly ahead of their HRPP opponents. 
 
5. (C) MFAT officials also noted that independent candidates 
are an important, third factor for predicting the final 
election outcome.  In the 2001 elections, a dozen independent 
candidates won seats -- roughly 25% of parliament. 
Candidates are not bound to their party alignment until they 
are sworn in as MPs, meaning that a large number of 
independents could continue to hold sway over the balance of 
power.  However, this year preliminary results show only 
eight seats falling to independents.  They may therefore play 
a less significant role in the formation of government this 
time around.  MFAT officials also expect to see several 
independents join the ranks of HRPP in the coming days and 
weeks. 
McCormick