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Viewing cable 06TOKYO2193, APRIL 23 BY-ELECTION A TOSS-UP

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TOKYO2193 2006-04-21 08:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXYZ0042
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKO #2193 1110818
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 210818Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1249
UNCLAS TOKYO 002193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: APRIL 23 BY-ELECTION A TOSS-UP 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  The April 23 by-election for Chiba 
District 7 pits LDP candidate Ken Saito against opposition 
DPJ candidate Kazumi Ota.  The media is playing up the 
election as the first showdown between Prime Minister Koizumi 
and new DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa.  Koizumi has a personal 
stake in the by-election, LDP politicians and staffers 
informed us, because he wants to leave office in September on 
a winning note.  Everyone we spoke with agreed that the race 
is too close to call, but the LDP is pessimistic.  LDP 
politicians and staffers claim that Saito is "too perfect" 
and is having a hard time connecting with voters, but they 
assure us that they are not giving up, and intend to throw 
all their resources into winning over more voters this 
weekend.  In an "only in Japan" wrinkle to the race, the 
26-year old Ota once worked as a bar hostess and was put in 
juvenile protective custody after fighting with her parents 
in a public park.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The Lower House by-election for Chiba District 7 is 
the last election for Prime Minister Koizumi and he is very 
determined to win, a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) staffer 
told us on April 20.  The poll pits LDP candidate Ken Saito 
(46, Saitama Vice-Governor) against opposition Democratic 
Party of Japan (DPJ) candidate Kazumi Ota (26, Chiba 
prefectural assembly member).  A Japan Communist Party 
candidate and two independents are also running, but are not 
expected to figure significantly in the election.  Japan 
holds by-elections twice a year, in April and October, to 
fill vacant Diet seats. 
 
3.  (SBU) The media is playing up the election as the first 
showdown between Koizumi and new DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa. 
Koizumi has a personal stake in the by-election, LDP 
politicians and staffers informed us, because he wants to 
leave office in September on a winning note.  One staffer 
predicted that an LDP win in Chiba would also help reinforce 
Koizumi's already solid popularity ratings.  Both parties 
have sent a continuous stream of politicians, including 
Koizumi and Ozawa, to rally votes.  One reporter shared that 
he tried to cover the Diet session on Monday, but found it 
empty since members of both parties were in Chiba 
campaigning. 
 
4.  (SBU) Everyone we spoke with agreed that the race is too 
close to call.  Surveys conducted by Japan's two largest 
newspapers confirmed that the race is a "dead heat."  The LDP 
is pessimistic, claiming that Saito is "too perfect" in the 
sense that he is a graduate of the elite Tokyo University, 
was an "elite" bureaucrat at the Ministry of Economy, Trade 
and Industry, and studied at both Harvard and Johns Hopkins's 
School of Advanced International Studies.  He is having a 
hard time connecting with voters, they complained.  An LDP 
staffer suggested that, even if Saito does not win the 
by-election, the widespread publicity he is receiving will 
surely help his chances in the next election.  Our LDP 
interlocutors assure us that they are not giving up, and 
intend to throw all their resources into winning over more 
voters this weekend. 
 
5.  (SBU) The LDP camp cattily tells us that Ota is using her 
feminine wiles to appeal to the over-60 male crowd.  In an 
"only in Japan" wrinkle, she used to work at a down-market 
hostess club and was put in juvenile protective custody after 
fighting with her parents in a public park.  Ota hails from a 
rich real estate family and was known to ride to high school 
on a motorcycle, leading to an unsubstantiated rumor she was 
a leader of a motorcycle gang. 
DONOVAN