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Viewing cable 06TOKYO2011, JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 04/13/06

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TOKYO2011 2006-04-13 08:03 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO1978
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #2011/01 1030803
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130803Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0939
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 8312
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5678
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8854
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 5672
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 6861
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1729
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7896
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 9785
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 002011 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 04/13/06 
 
 
Index: 
 
(1) Fuji-Sankei poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, new 
DPJ leadership under Ichiro Ozawa, post-Koizumi race, SDF Iraq 
deployment 
 
(2) Ozawa set to spearhead campaigning for 2007 Upper House 
election aimed at sweeping victory in single-seat constituencies 
 
(3) Restart of Minshuto: Ozawa underscores confrontational stance 
toward LDP, makes contact with LDP-support groups 
 
(4) Japanese politicians need greater strategic education 
 
(5) At long last, political situation is returning to normal; 
Cleaning up the mess left behind by five years of sloppy Koizumi 
politics a serious challenge 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Fuji-Sankei poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, new 
DPJ leadership under Ichiro Ozawa, post-Koizumi race, SDF Iraq 
deployment 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Abridged) 
April 11, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes                                            48.8       (56.9) 
No                                             35.5       (29.6) 
Don't know (D/K) + Can't say which (CSW)       15.8       (13.6) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                 42.1       (43.6) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)    17.4       (18.1) 
New Komeito (NK)                                3.5        (4.2) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                  2.9        (3.1) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)       1.9        (2.0) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)      0.2        (0.6) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)         0.1        (0.4) 
New Party Daichi (NPD or Shinto Daichi)         0          (0.3) 
Other answers (O/A)                             1.1        (0.7) 
None                                           27.7       (24.3) 
D/K + Can't say (CS)                            3.2        (3.0) 
 
Q: The DPJ has now elected Ichiro Ozawa as its new leader 
following his predecessor's resignation over the fake email 
fiasco. Is the party's settlement of the problem convincing? 
 
Yes           25.5 
No            58.3 
D/K+CSW       16.3 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ under Ozawa is competent enough to take 
office? 
 
Yes           43.8 
 
TOKYO 00002011  002 OF 010 
 
 
No            38.4 
D/K+CSW       17.9 
 
Q: What would you like Ozawa to do first? 
 
Pursue suspicions over the government, ruling parties       18.4 
Cross words with the government, ruling parties             24.0 
Strengthen the DPJ's unity                                  29.0 
O/A                                                         14.3 
D/K + nothing                                               14.4 
 
Q: Who do you think is most appropriate for post-Koizumi 
leadership? 
 
Taro Aso                    5.6        (7.2) 
Shinzo Abe                 47.0       (50.6) 
Sadakazu Tanigaki           3.3        (3.2) 
Yasuo Fukuda               18.3       (12.1) 
Heizo Takenaka              2.4        (5.6) 
Taku Yamasaki               1.2        (---) 
O/A                         8.5        (---) 
D/K + inappropriate        13.9       (18.9) 
 
Q: Who do you think is most appropriate for prime minister among 
Abe, Fukuda, and Ozawa? 
 
Abe                       48.7 
Fukuda                    19.4 
Ozawa                     14.1 
D/K + inappropriate       18.0 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ under Ozawa will affect the post-Koizumi 
race? 
 
Yes       54.3 
No       36.0 
D/K+CSW       9.8 
 
Q: What's your concern in the post-Koizumi race? 
 
Foreign, security policies                   20.5 
Economic, financial policies                 18.5 
Administrative, fiscal reforms               13.3 
Pensions, other social security issues       26.7 
Constitutional issues                         3.1 
Education, low birthrate                      7.7 
O/A                                           2.9 
D/K+CS                                        7.5 
 
Q: Do you think the next prime minister should visit Yasukuni 
Shrine? 
 
Yes           38.0 
No            43.6 
D/K+CSW       18.5 
 
Q: Do you think the Diet should pass national referendum 
legislation at the current session for amendments to the 
Constitution of Japan? 
 
Yes           38.1 
No            36.5 
 
TOKYO 00002011  003 OF 010 
 
 
D/K+CSW       25.5 
 
Q: Do you think Japan should withdraw its ground troops from Iraq 
in the first half of this year? 
 
Yes           75.8 
No            14.3 
D/K+CSW       10.0 
 
(Note) Parentheses denote the results of the last survey 
conducted in November last year. 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted by the Sankei 
Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) on April 8-9 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
For the survey, a total of 2,000 persons were sampled from among 
males and females, aged 20 and over, across the nation. 
 
(2) Ozawa set to spearhead campaigning for 2007 Upper House 
election aimed at sweeping victory in single-seat constituencies 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged slightly) 
April 12, 2006 
 
Campaigning for the House of Representatives by-election in Chiba 
Constituency No. 7 kicked off yesterday as if to test Minshuto's 
(Democratic Party of Japan) recovery from the recent e-mail 
fiasco. Newly elected Minshuto President Ichiro Ozawa's mind is 
already set on the Upper House election next summer. His party 
suffered a humiliating setback in single-seat constituencies in 
the election five years ago. Determined to win all the single- 
seat constituencies up for election next summer to force the 
ruling coalition into a minority, Ozawa is spearheading the 
election campaign that started yesterday. In contrast, Liberal 
Democratic Party Upper House executives look somewhat worried, as 
the number of dependable local assemblymen will decrease due to 
municipal mergers. They also fear possible negative repercussions 
from postal reform. 
 
On the evening of April 10, Ozawa visited the chiefs and deputy 
chiefs of the two houses of the Diet and leaders of other parties 
to give his greetings as the new Minshuto president. He seems to 
have done so for the sake of the Upper House election. 
 
Ozawa inquired with People's New Party Secretary General Hisaoki 
Kamei about the aging population of his hometown of Masuda City, 
a single-seat constituency in Shimane Prefecture. To leaders of 
the Social Democratic Party, Ozawa said, "We must cooperate 
because we have the same adversary." Asked by Upper House Vice 
President Giichi Tsunoda about next year's election, Ozawa 
crisply said, "It (achieving a victory in the Upper House 
election) is my biggest goal." 
 
Shortly after assuming office, Ozawa declared that he would take 
charge of election campaigning. In the first post-election 
meeting with Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama and Deputy 
President Naoto Kan on the afternoon of April 8, Ozawa said, "I 
am ready to commit myself to the Upper House election." Since 
then, he has repeatedly underscored the importance of single-seat 
constituencies. 
 
Next summer, the political parties will vie for the seats that 
 
TOKYO 00002011  004 OF 010 
 
 
were up for election in 2001, when the ruling coalition achieved 
an overwhelming victory owing to the "Koizumi boom." In that 
election, the LDP won 66 seats, the New Komeito 13, and Minshuto 
ΒΆ31. As far as single-seat constituencies were concerned, Minshuto 
won only two out of 27. Moreover, LDP candidates dominated in 
Tochigi and Gunma, where only one seat each will be up for grabs 
in the next election as a result of correcting the imbalance in 
the weight of votes in single-seat constituencies. 
 
A mid-level Minshuto member fears that if Ozawa tries to field 
candidates close to him, the party might break up. Some others 
think they have no other option but to rely on Ozawa at a time 
like this when the party has yet to determine who will run in 21 
constituencies out of the 25 that are devoid of Minshuto 
incumbents due partly to the e-mail flop. 
 
In many single-seat constituencies, Minshuto's organizational 
strength is weak. Ozawa intends to travel across the nation to 
meet local leaders in order to find promising candidates and 
directly teach them how to prepare themselves for elections. 
 
Ozawa's policies are also focused on the many single-seat 
constituencies centered on small local cities and farming 
villages. One of Ozawa's campaign pledges for the Minshuto 
presidency was making Japan into a nation that values the 
circumstances and character of local areas. He also indicated on 
a TV-Asahi program that the government should transfer the 
authority and financial resources to build roads to local 
governments. He also called for a system to directly provide 
farmers with subsidies. 
 
LDP on alert against Ozawa-led Minshuto in wake of postal 
privatization 
 
At a Tokyo restaurant on the night of April 10, Toranosuke 
Katayama, secretary general of the LDP caucus in the Upper House, 
gave a pep talk to the first-term LDP Upper House members who 
will face the election next summer. 
 
The LDP also thinks single-seat constituencies hold the key. The 
party achieved an overwhelming victory in the election five years 
ago. But in the 2004 election, the party led by Prime Minister 
Junichiro Koizumi and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe 
won only 14 seats out of 27 in the single-seat constituencies. In 
total, Minshuto won more seats than the LDP. 
 
Speeches by Mikio Aoki, chairman of the LDP's Upper House caucus, 
have been tinged with a sense of urgency: "Many municipalities 
will have been merged by next April. Consequently the number of 
assemblymen, who have been our strong supporters, will decrease 
by 17,000." 
 
In contrast to Minshuto, the LDP has a large number of local 
assemblymen who have served as "front-line troops" in national 
elections. Mergers have been rampant among thinly populated 
single-seat constituencies. In addition, the nation will have an 
Upper House election and unified local elections next year, a 
combination that occurs once every 12 years. This may result in 
"election fatigue" 
 
LDP executives also fear a rebound from last year's Lower House 
election, in which the ruling coalition achieved a landslide 
 
TOKYO 00002011  005 OF 010 
 
 
victory. Aoki has urged LDP members to work harder for the 
upcoming election. 
 
Ozawa, who is believed to know the LDP's election tactics inside 
and out, is a threat to the ruling coalition. An LDP Upper House 
executive noted: "Minshuto may describe next year's Upper House 
election in simple language, such as the last chance to install a 
two-party system. Asking people whether or not to change the 
government would be as effective as asking for a yes-no decision 
on postal privatization." 
 
Constituencies that split last over postal privatization are a 
source of concern for the LDP. A number of LDP members are taking 
the view that Ozawa will zero in on the LDP's weaknesses by 
disregarding unpromising districts. 
 
(3) Restart of Minshuto: Ozawa underscores confrontational stance 
toward LDP, makes contact with LDP-support groups 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Slightly abridged) 
April 12, 2006 
 
The new leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) 
was officially launched yesterday. New leader Ichiro Ozawa is 
willing to demonstrate his own policy identity in order to 
rebuild his party. For the upcoming April 23 by-election in 
Chiba's 7th District for the House of Representatives, the 
opposition party plans to send all its members to the district to 
support the Minshuto-endorsed candidate. Some support groups for 
the Liberal Democratic Party have been upset with the aftermath 
of a series of Koizumi reforms. In a move to drive them out of 
the LDP, Ozawa has visited the offices of such groups. 
 
Ozawa had Acting President Naoto Kan deliver the first campaign 
speech on April 11 and instructed all other members to canvass 
the electoral district in Chiba. Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama 
will also visit the constituency over the weekend to give a vote- 
getting speech. A party official responsible for election 
campaigning commented: "We want Mr. Ozawa also to go to the 
electoral district at the most effective timing." The official 
wants to see Ozawa appear on the main stage and spotlighted as "a 
transformed Ozawa." 
 
In a party executive meeting yesterday, an agreement was reached 
to call on the ruling coalition to hold party head talks at an 
early date, with the aim of stage-managing, prior to the by- 
election, a scene in which Prime Minister Koizumi and Ozawa face 
off in a debate. 
 
"Covert action" is Ozawa's favorite approach. He secretly visited 
the office of the Japan War Bereaved Association in Kudan, Tokyo, 
yesterday. Earlier, he also visited the offices of the Japan 
Dental Association and the Japan Pharmaceutical Association. They 
are all influential LDP-support groups, with which Ozawa also had 
much to do when he was still an influential LDP member. 
 
In an executive board meeting last evening, the participants 
decided to disband the Comprehensive Policy Planning Conference 
set up by former head Seiji Maehara as a Minshuto-version of the 
Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. This is part of efforts to 
bid farewell to the "Maehara imprint." Junior members have not 
reacted to such moves, one member saying: "Local residents' 
 
TOKYO 00002011  006 OF 010 
 
 
responses to Mr. Ozawa were favorable." 
 
Kan, who was defeated in the presidential race, has already said: 
"I hope an Ozawa administration will be formed." Many persons 
predict that in the regular Minshuto presidential election in 
September, Ozawa will be reelected without a vote. 
 
Prime minister: "Mr. Ozawa may approach LDP to form coalition" 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi held an informal meeting with 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, House of Councillors Steering 
Committee Chairman Kensei Mizote, and others in Tokyo yesterday. 
In reference to new Minshuto head Ichiro Ozawa, the prime 
minister indicated his view that Ozawa will make a pitch to the 
LDP to form a conservative-conservative alliance. He said: 
 
"(Ozawa) left the LDP because he could not become prime minister. 
He supposedly cannot be satisfied with the top post of Minshuto. 
Once he is reelected in the September election, he may cut his 
ties with those affiliated with the former Socialist Party and 
come closer to the LDP with the aim of forming a coalition." 
 
In 1999, Jiyuto (Liberal Party) under the lead of Ozawa formed a 
conservative-conservative alliance with the LDP. 
 
(4) Japanese politicians need greater strategic education 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) 
April 9, 2006 
 
Tadae Takubo, guest professor, Kyorin University 
 
It is no use relying on government offices, which are busy with 
daily tasks. It is meaningless to lecture the majority of 
politicians, who focus on how to win the next election rather 
than the country's future. I want politicians who have the 
backbone to bear responsibility for national interests to engage 
in realism as far as foreign and defense policies. 
 
In opposition to realism, liberal politics, which places 
importance on transnational relations, has spread throughout the 
world since the 1970s. It is, however, uncertain when the world 
will attach emphasis to transnational relations. Power politics 
has become the norm, especially among Japan's neighbors. 
 
According to the Sankei Shimbun's morning edition on April 2, 
when Chinese President Hu Jintao began to criticize Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine before 
seven Japanese delegates to China headed by former Prime Minister 
Ryutaro Hashimoto, on March 31 at the Great Hall of the People, a 
dead silence fell over the hall. Mr. Hashimoto and other 
delegation members looked somewhat gaunt on TV. They reminded me 
of barbarians getting down on their knees before China's emperor. 
 
I have no intention to criticize those Japanese delegates. Among 
them, there are politicians who have called for the separate 
enshrinement of Class-A war criminals at Yasukuni Shrine and 
construction of a new war memorial facility, lamenting the 
present situation where the Chinese leader has refused to hold a 
summit with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Those politicians 
have been trying to have Mr. Koizumi give up visiting the Shinto 
shrine. 
 
TOKYO 00002011  007 OF 010 
 
 
 
There are many arguments supporting those who don't want to think 
that they are falling on their knees to China. One argument is 
that the Chinese government of President Hu Jintao has no choice 
but to take a tough stance against Japan since it has been 
suffering from pressure from hard-liners in China. That may be 
true, but that is a trick for which Mr. Nakasone once fell. 
 
Ironically, China's foreign policy is laudable. China is well 
aware of the weakness of democratic countries. There may be the 
only one commander in China. The Chinese commander knows well who 
in political, business, and bureaucratic circles and the press 
have close ties to Beijing and who does not. The commander also 
fully understands those people's influential power in Japan. 
China has steadily taken every possible means to sow discord 
among Japanese leaders and to isolate Prime Minister Koizumi, 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, and Foreign Minister Taro Aso 
in the country. The Chinese commander makes plans regarding whom, 
when, and where to invite to meet with what level Chinese 
leaders. Therefore, Japan's diplomacy based on goodwill does not 
work toward China. 
 
Japan's failure last year in its bid for a permanent United 
Nations Security Council seat was a major foreign policy failure. 
Although Japanese officials concerned explained in detail about 
the government's strategy in its push for a UNSC seat, I could 
see no politicians capable of becoming a real player in the UN 
even if Japan were to obtain a UNSC seat. 
 
In contrast, China has steadily boosted its military strength. It 
took advantage of anti-Japanese demonstrations last year in China 
as a means of preventing Japan from becoming a permanent UNSC 
member. If Japanese politicians understood China's strategy, they 
would have read the communist country's hidden motive. I think 
the politicians who cannot say that China is a threat are 
daunted. 
 
About two years ago, Harvard University Prof. Joseph Nye 
explained in Foreign Affairs the need for soft power to attract 
other countries with culture and political vision rather than 
hard power. Leaders in every sector of society often talk about 
Prof. Nye's advocacy of soft power. 
 
Prof. Nye in his argument, however, reproved the United States, 
which spends more money on its military than all other countries 
combined. It is odd for Japan, an ordinary democratic country 
that even does not have its own military, to assert such a 
theory. 
 
US President George W. Bush was fond of reading Theodore 
Roosevelt's biography when he first assumed office. Referring 
recently to Jung Chan's book MAO: The Untold Story at a press 
conference, the president talked about how China's history 
deceived the rest of the world and its cruelty. 
 
US President Richard Nixon was absorbed in reading English 
statesman Benjamin Disraeli's critical biography. It is widely 
known that Chinese President Deng Xiaoping's favorite book was 
The Art of War. I don't know what Japanese politicians are doing 
to enhance their strategic education. 
 
(5) At long last, political situation is returning to normal; 
 
TOKYO 00002011  008 OF 010 
 
 
Cleaning up the mess left behind by five years of sloppy Koizumi 
politics a serious challenge 
 
NIKKAN GENDAI (Pp.1-2) (Full) 
April 13, 2006 
 
Minshuto's (Democratic Party of Japan) installment of Ozawa as 
its president, Kan as his deputy, and Hatoyama as secretary 
general upset the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Koizumi, 
Takebe, and Abe, who have been slackening off lately. 
 
Ichiro Ozawa's decision to take center stage as Minshuto 
president with an eye on Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is 
scheduled to step down in six months, carries great significance. 
Both the LDP and Minshuto seem to share the view that Japan, 
having been destroyed by the sham Koizumi reform drive, needs 
drastic change and reform for its revival. 
 
Ichiro Ozawa's assumption of office as Minshuto president has 
turned around the atmosphere surrounding the political world. 
 
Minshuto, which had been dispirited due to the e-mail fiasco, has 
now come back to life, and the haughty LDP has been rattled. The 
outcome of the April 23 House of Representatives by-election in 
Chiba Constituency No. 7 is unpredictable. The LDP may not be 
able to achieve an overwhelming victory, as planned. 
 
Political affairs commentator Harumi Arima noted: 
 
"The LDP is upset by the current situation of the Chiba by- 
election. Contrary to the LDP's optimistic projection that its 
candidate will win the election by a double-digit margin, the 
race is now a dead heat. According to one survey, the difference 
between the two camps is only several points. To Prime Minister 
Koizumi, the Chiba by-election will be his last national election 
in office. The LDP leadership is highly alarmed at the race, 
because a defeat at this point could be taken as a rejection of 
the five years of Koizumi-style politics. Secretary General 
Takebe has been visiting Chiba almost daily to brace the LDP 
camp." 
 
Against all odds, Minshuto is united under Ozawa. And that, too, 
was a miscalculation of the LDP. 
 
The LDP had expected that Minshuto would get into trouble in 
selecting a new lineup of party executives under Ichiro Ozawa, 
the "destroyer." Surprisingly, Ozawa has decided to keep the 
Maehara structure intact, gaining momentum. 
 
In facing Minshuto's Ozawa-Kan-Hatoyama trio, the LDP's Koizumi- 
Takebe-Abe leadership is visibly restless. 
 
Ozawa set to destroy LDP 
 
The Chiba by-election is not the only factor that is making the 
LDP jittery. What the LDP really fears is Ozawa's steps to split 
up the LDP to set off political realignment. 
 
Ozawa has already begun making strategic moves to that end. For 
instance, he has repeatedly attacked a growing social divide and 
Asia policy representing the dark side of Koizumi-style politics. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002011  009 OF 010 
 
 
Ozawa harshly criticized Koizumi's advocacy of market forces, 
saying: "Freedom is not about benefiting only a handful of 
winners. Minshuto's goal is to realize a society where workers' 
efforts are rewarded in a fair manner." In addition, with 
Koizumi's failed Asia policy in mind, Ozawa explicitly said, "I 
will devote my efforts to advance friendly relations between 
Japan and South Korea." The target of this statement is clear. 
Political affairs commentator Asao Yamaguchi took this view: 
 
"Such statements intended to rattle the LDP are so characteristic 
of Ozawa, an experienced statesman. A 'growing social divide' and 
'isolation in Asia' are debatable themes for the LDP as well. 
They are turning into symbols of discontent with Koizumi. Ozawa 
is trying to set them on fire. He not only rapped Koizumi's 
visits to Yasukuni Shrine but also declared that Class-A war 
criminals must not be enshrined at Yasukuni. That was truly 
significant. Koizumi hates Yasukuni being turned into a campaign 
issue for the LDP presidency. Now that Ozawa has touched on it, 
it inevitably will. It would enliven the pro-China group aiming 
to tighten the noose around Koizumi and Abe. Ozawa might end up 
splitting up the LDP." 
 
Continued criticism of a "growing social disparity" and "Asia 
policy" would eventually make happy-go-lucky Koizumi supporters 
realize the deceit of Koizumi politics. 
 
This would result in a dip in Koizumi's support rating, which 
would in turn embolden the anti-Koizumi group. The LDP is clearly 
tinged with polarizing overtones. The question is when Ozawa will 
pull the trigger to destroy the LDP for another round of 
political realignment. 
 
Diet nomination in September of Yasuo Fukuda as prime minister 
would shake political community 
 
Ozawa will unmistakably try to set off political realignment 
timed with the LDP presidential election in September. 
 
Minshuto Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kozo Watanabe predicted, 
"Political realignment will occur once Koizumi steps down as 
prime minister." Koizumi also said alarmingly, "Mr. Ozawa could 
attempt to launch a grand coalition." 
 
Harumi Arima also noted: 
 
"Ozawa is now 63. Considering his age, Ozawa cannot wait for next 
summer's Upper House election or the next general election, which 
might not occur during his tenure of office, to realize the 
political realignment of his dreams. It is certain that he will 
aim at taking the LDP apart and rebuilding it from scratch on the 
occasion of the September presidential election. I think Ozawa 
envisages making former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda the 
LDP's new president. If Abe was picked as Koizumi's successor, 
Ozawa could go ahead with the super-extraordinary move of 
nominating Fukuda in the Diet nomination of the prime minister." 
 
In that case, Minshuto also will unavoidably split up, and the 
group of Minshuto members from the Matsushita Institute of 
Government and Management, including former president Seiji 
Maehara, would be expected to race immediately to the Koizumi-Abe 
duo. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002011  010 OF 010 
 
 
The political community is likely to experience a major shockwave 
in September or later over whether or not to keep the Koizumi 
policy line in place. Kyushu University Professor Emeritus Fumio 
Saito commented: 
 
"The public would welcome it. Originally, the current Diet 
session's theme was to sum up the five years of Koizumi politics. 
But that has not been discussed at all because of the e-mail 
hullabaloo. It's not bad for that theme to become a point of 
contention owing to the LDP presidential race and the Diet 
nomination of the prime minister. A social disparity and 
deadlocked policy toward East Asia resulting from Koizumi 
politics are particularly serious problems for the public as 
well. Should Japan go along with Koizumi politics' law of the 
jungle and anti-Asia policy, or put the brakes on them? Real 
political realignment would follow the disintegration of the LDP 
over those factors." 
 
Ozawa's assumption of office as Minshuto president is likely to 
continue shaking the political world violently. 
 
SCHIEFFER