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Viewing cable 06ROME1019, BERLUSCONI-PRODI DEBATE SHOWS CONTRAST: NO

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ROME1019 2006-04-04 15:16 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Rome
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON IZ IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: BERLUSCONI-PRODI DEBATE SHOWS CONTRAST: NO 
KNOCKOUTS 
 
REF: A. ROME 0996 
     B. ROME 0584 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Many commentators give PM Berlusconi a 
slight edge over challenger Romano Prodi in last night's 
second candidate debate.  Berlusconi was more poised than in 
the first debate and offered a surprise proposal to eliminate 
local property taxes on every family's first home--a proposal 
some observers believe might bring him crucial undecided 
voters.  Prodi hammered the Berlusconi record but failed to 
inspire with his performance.  In a debate in which PM 
Berlusconi tried to paint Prodi as the powerless head of a 
band of communists and ex-communists, Iraq was the only 
foreign policy issue.  On Iraq, Prodi repeated the Union's 
standard line that he would call for a phased withdrawal of 
Italian troops by the end of 2006 in consultation with the 
Iraqi government.  However, his fervor in denouncing the 
attempt to bring democracy to Iraq through regime change was 
noteworthy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
POCKETBOOK ISSUES DOMINATE THE DEBATE 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) PM Silvio Berlusconi and center-left (CL) challenger 
Romano Prodi squared off April 3 in the second of two 
American-style debates.  As was the case in the first debate, 
pocketbook issues dominated (REF A).  However, both 
candidates avoided explaining how they would finance the 
various tax cuts and spending proposals they had offered over 
the course of the campaign. 
 
TWO COMPETING IMAGES OF GOVERNMENT EMERGE 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) More forward-looking than in the last debate and 
less defensive, Berlusconi described a vision of smaller 
government that enables individuals to thrive.  In contrast, 
the more professorial Prodi outlined a paternalistic role for 
government that redistributes wealth from the rich to the 
less fortunate.  Berlusconi tried to paint Prodi as the 
powerless head of a band of communists and ex-communists and 
focused on Prodi's proposals to increase the inheritance and 
other taxes.  Prodi consistently asked for Italians to 
consider whether they feel better off now than five years 
before and proposed programs, such as a cash payment to 
families with children. 
 
4. (SBU) In his final statement and the last comment of the 
night, Berlusconi dramatically proposed cancellation of local 
taxes on a family's first home (ICI) a clear attempt to 
appeal to his constituency's pocketbooks.  Berlusconi's task 
over the next week is to convince incredulous and apathetic 
voters that his proposal is credible.  It remains unclear 
whether Berlusconi coordinated the proposal with his 
coalition allies, and the measure could run afoul of the 
Northern League.  ICI is one of few Italian taxes raised by 
municipal governments for their own benefit, and some CL 
officials, ironically given their opposition to devolution, 
have called ICI a form of "fiscal federalism," a concept dear 
to the Northern League. 
 
5. (SBU)  Several CL Mayors have already denounced 
Berlusconi's proposal.  Rome Mayor Walter Veltroni said that 
Rome collects Euro 300 million from ICI and said it is 
irresponsible for Berlusconi to propose eliminating a source 
of local income without offering an alternative.  But the PM 
did find one odd bedfellow: Communist Renewal Party leader 
Fausto Bertinotti expressed support for Berlusconi's proposed 
cut to ICI. 
 
IRAQ: THE ONLY FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE 
----------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Italian participation in peacekeeping operations in 
Iraq was the only foreign policy issue raised by the 
questioners.  Prodi said the war did not bring peace and had 
led to an increase in terrorism.  His government never would 
have entered, and this was not the way to export democracy, 
which Europe has done more effectively by other means.  He 
repeated the standard Union line, that he would bring home 
Italian troops by the end of 2006, in consultation with the 
Iraqi government (REF B).  He did not refer to prior 
consultation with coalition allies and said Italian soldiers 
would come home "as soon as possible." 
 
7. (SBU) Berlusconi responded that Italian troops did not 
participate in the war in Iraq but went there at the 
invitation of the UN and had focused on reconstruction.  He 
confirmed the government's stated policy of a phased 
withdrawal by the end of 2006.  Berlusconi used this issue to 
maintain that a Prodi government would be at the mercy of 
communist party leaders, declaring "we cannot isolate 
ourselves from the world." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8. (SBU) COMMENT: Prodi's statements on Iraq were not new, 
but his fervor in denouncing the attempt to bring democracy 
to Iraq through regime change was noteworthy. More than in 
the first debate, Italians were able to see two different 
views on the role of government expressed by Berlusconi and 
Prodi.  Down in all publicly available polls, Berlusconi is 
targeting undecided and apathetic voters--both those who 
still fear communists and those who just want to pay less 
taxes.  Many commentators call Berlusconi's proposed tax cut 
an obvious ploy to win votes, while others say the obvious 
ploy might be what he needs.  If so, its effect will turn on 
whether people believe he will keep this promise--and that 
means he has a selling job to do in the few remaining days 
before the elections.  END COMMENT. 
SPOGLI