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Viewing cable 06PARIS2166, FRENCH OFFICIALS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GDP GROWTH AND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06PARIS2166 2006-04-03 14:46 2011-08-24 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Paris
VZCZCXRO0537
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFR #2166/01 0931446
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031446Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5899
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS FEDERAL RESERVE 
PASS CEA 
STATE FOR EB and EUR/WE 
TREASURY FOR DO/IM 
TREASURY ALSO FOR DO/IMB AND DO/E WDINKELACKER 
USDOC FOR 4212/MAC/EUR/OEURA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV FR
SUBJECT: FRENCH OFFICIALS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GDP GROWTH AND 
BUDGET DEFICIT 
 
 
Refs:  (A) PARIS 929 
       (B) PARIS 2046 
 
1. SUMMARY.  Higher-than-expected GDP growth and a lower- 
than-expected 2005 budget deficit prompted optimistic 
messages on economic growth and employment for 2006. 
Finance Minister Breton forecast 2006 GDP would grow 2.0- 
2.5%, and the unemployment rate would fall to 9% by the end 
of 2006, dropping to 8.7-8.8% by April 2007.  Demonstrating 
students and unions are unlikely to be convinced.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
Upward Revision of Q-4 2005 GDP 
------------------------------- 
2.  The National Statistical Agency, INSEE, revised upward Q- 
4 2005 GDP (seasonally and work-day adjusted) to 1.6% 
(annualized) from 0.8% (ref A).  The agency also confirmed 
relatively strong 2.8% GDP growth in Q-3, and revised upward 
Q-2 GDP growth to 0.4% (annualized) from 0%. 
 
3.  Interestingly, corporate investment growth, which is 
viewed by many economists as insufficient (ref B), was 
stronger than expected in Q-4, and revised to 4.8% 
(annualized) from 4.0%.  Government investment growth was 
also higher, and revised to 2.0% (annualized) from 0%. 
 
4.  INSEE confirmed strong 2.8% (annualized) growth in 
household consumption in Q-3, but revised its Q-4 estimate 
downward to 2.4% (annualized) from 2.8%.  The impact of 
street protests in November on consumer confidence may have 
been higher than expected.  The March 2006 household 
confidence survey showed a slight deterioration compared to 
February, notably due to fears about unemployment.  Some 
economists pointed out that protests against the employment 
contract for the youth ("Contrat Premier Embauche - CPE") 
might have renewed fears about growing unemployment.  That 
said, household confidence remained at fairly high levels 
compared to Q-3 and Q-4 2005. 
 
Unemployment Decrease in February, but the Unemployment Rate 
Remained Unchanged 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
5.  Unemployment decreased 15,000 in February, but that was 
not enough to affect the unemployment rate, which remained 
unchanged at 9.6% and the youth unemployment rate at 22.2%. 
The slight decrease in numbers was probably due to 
demographics and seasonal corrections, although in part it 
may have been due to potential job seekers choosing instead 
to march through the streets in protest.  Interestingly, 
hiring through government-subsidized contracts was lower in 
February (14,500) than in January (30,000).  Job creation 
remained low in 2005 based on INSEE's data released on March 
31, 2005.  On a year-over-year basis, employment excluding 
farm and government sectors increased 0.3% in Q-4 2005 over 
Q-4 2004. 
 
Finance Minister Remains Optimistic About 2006 
--------------------------------------------- - 
6.  Even with the INSEE revisions, overall 2005 GDP growth 
remained unchanged at 1.4%, below the government's 1.5-2.0% 
forecast range for 2005.  Nevertheless, in his March 31 
quarterly conference, Finance Minister Thierry Breton 
reaffirmed his 2006 GDP growth forecast of 2.0-2.5%, which 
should reduce the unemployment rate to 9% by the end of 2006 
and to 8.7-8.8% by April 2007.  He expected 200,000 jobs to 
be created. 
 
7.  The 2.0-2.5% growth GDP forecast is also the range upon 
which the GOF based its 2006 budget.  Breton said that a 
return to stronger growth would enable France to reduce the 
budget deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2006.  On March 31, INSEE 
reported that the budget deficit decreased to 2.9% of GDP in 
2005 (Breton said "exactly to 2.87% of GDP") from 3.7% in 
2004, bringing the deficit back below the EU limit of 3% of 
GDP for the first time since 2001.  In a separate interview 
with Le Monde, Breton said that public debt, which had 
increased to 66.8% of GDP in 2005 from 64.4% in 2004, would 
stabilize in 2006.  Speaking for European Commissioner to 
Economic Affairs Joaquin Almunia, Amelia Torres indicated 
that the Commission would continue to keep a close eye on 
the French deficit, since the public debt was worrying. 
 
 
PARIS 00002166  002 OF 002 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
8.   Breton delivered his message of optimism at a time when 
the government is confronted with unrest over measures to 
reduce unemployment.  He did not say whether his forecast 
for a decrease in unemployment took into account any jobs 
created by the CPE.  His optimism therefore is unlikely to 
calm and convince the hundreds of thousands students and 
unions protesters demanding the complete withdrawal of the 
law on the CPE. 
STAPELTON