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Viewing cable 06MANILA1567, CRITICAL LACK OF RESOURCES FOR AI PREPAREDNESS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MANILA1567 2006-04-07 03:59 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Manila
VZCZCXRO5242
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #1567/01 0970359
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 070359Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0423
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
INFO RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 1256
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHZS/ASEAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2605
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5692
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 9304
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 4294
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2260
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0797
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 3315
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 001567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR UNDER SECRETARY PDOBRIANSKY 
STATE FOR OES/IHA FOR JKAUFMANN, DSINGER AND RDALEY 
STATE FOR INR/EAP FOR JSTROTZ 
STATE PASS USDA/FAS/ICD FOR ROSENBLUM 
STATE PASS USDA/FAS/DL&P FOR MAGINNIS 
STATE PASS USDA/FAS/ITP/AA FOR ALEXANDER 
STATE PASS USDA/FAS/FAA FOR HAGER 
STATE PASS USDA/APHIS/IS FOR HOFFMAN 
STATE PASS USDA/APHIS/VS FOR DUVERNOY 
STATE PASS USDA/ARS/SEPRL FOR SUAREZ 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCARROLL AND ACLEMENTS 
BANGKOK FOR REO JAMES WALLER 
CIA FOR NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL NIO/EA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO SENV EAGR EAID PREL RP
SUBJECT: CRITICAL LACK OF RESOURCES FOR AI PREPAREDNESS 
 
REF: A) 2006 STATE 023826 
     B) 2005 STATE 209622 
     C) 2006 MANILA 860 
     D) 2005 MANILA 5291 
     E) 2005 MANILA 5059 
     F) 2005 MANILA 4278 
     G) 2005 MANILA 5393 
 
MANILA 00001567  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
- - - - 
Summary 
- - - - 
 
1. (SBU)  The Philippines continues to maintain its official 
status as free of H5N1 Avian Influenza (AI).  However the 
country is regarded as being at "high risk" considering the 
epidemic in the region and migratory birds, which transit 
the Philippines to and from affected countries.  Post is 
concerned about the government's ability to detect AI; 
surveillance systems remain inadequate.  An AI outbreak 
would be both economically and politically damaging to U.S. 
interests in a stable Philippines and harmful to U.S. 
business interests.  Post, therefore recommends that the 
Department designate the RP as a high priority country for 
resource support.  End summary. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
Situation Assessment 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
2. (SBU)  The discussion below is in response to Reftel A. 
All in-country USG support to preventing the entry and 
spread of Avian Influenza in the country is coordinated 
through the Mission-wide Task Force chaired by USAID, with 
COM oversight.  USG support to in-country preparedness 
efforts is also coordinated with other donors including the 
ADB, WB, UN and other bilaterals (Reftel C). 
 
3.  (SBU)  The GRP has developed a respectable bird flu 
preparedness plan, but lacks the resource capacity and 
organizational structure to implement the plan's 
initiatives.  Post is concerned with the GRP's resources to 
diagnose AI, based on our discussions with GRP 
counterparts and various assessment teams who have analyzed 
the GRP's surveillance system.  The GRP appears similarly 
unprepared to control an outbreak of AI should it 
occur.  The government needs to improve monitoring and 
supervision in the field as well as standard operating 
procedures for testing and containment. 
4. (SBU)  There is great potential of infection throughout 
the RP among animals and humans based on multiple risk 
factors: 
--numerous flocks of migratory birds from affected countries 
in the region passing through the RP each year; 
 
--the abundance of backyard farming operations housing 
chickens, fighting cocks, ducks, turkeys and pigs in the 
same area without necessary bio-security measures in place; 
 
--widespread live-bird markets contributing to smuggling of 
exotic birds from Indonesia and other AI infected countries 
 
MANILA 00001567  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
into the Philippines and, 
--low public awareness of AI precautionary measures making 
detection and containment more challenging. 
In addition there is a negative incentive for AI detection 
based on potential macro-economic and political fallout as 
well as the impact on small farmers. For instance, the GRP 
does not offer compensation programs (such as chick 
replacement) that would encourage farmers to come forward 
with sick birds. 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Potential Economic Impact 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
5. (SBU)  An AI outbreak would be damaging to the RP 
economy and to U.S. business interests in country.  The 
$2.7 billion RP poultry industry supplies the domestic 
economy with the majority of its poultry product and 
employs 300,000 workers.  An AI contamination would drive 
up the price of substitutes such as pork and fish and place 
an increased burden on impoverished families.  Local corn 
producers would be impacted, notably in Mindanao where 60% 
of the RP's corn is grown, because corn is the primary 
feedstock for chickens.  Demand for U.S. exports such as 
feed products representing $14 million and poultry products 
representing $11 million would decline as well.  Quarantine 
areas could further disrupt transport of U.S. products. If 
human-to-human transmission were to develop, the RP's $2.3 
billion tourism industry would suffer as well.  There is a 
significant population of 130,000 American citizens 
residing in the RP, and a like number of American Citizen 
tourists at any given time, who would face a potential 
health crisis in the case of a pandemic. 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Potential Political Impact 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
6. (SBU)  Political stability in the RP has been anchored, 
to some extent, by steady economic growth in recent years 
and inflation that has been kept in check.  An AI outbreak 
and its resultant economic hardships could further erode 
confidence in the Arroyo administration, especially if the 
situation were not managed effectively. 
 
- - - - - - - 
USG Response 
- - - - - - - 
 
7. (SBU)  Of the $334 million in USG pledges for FY05 and 
FY06 toward AI support activities worldwide, we understand 
that the RP has so far received a modest budget for AI 
projects based on the assumption that the country is flu 
free.  USAID Philippines has a budget of $680,000 for AI 
projects for FY05 and FY06, a portion of which has already 
been spent on its recent AI assessment team mission. 
8.  (SBU)  AI will likely appear in the RP at some point. 
Outbreaks have been detected in neighboring countries 
and throughout Southeast Asia.  Post asserts that the GRP 
needs more assistance, not less, because current 
surveillance systems are unlikely to identify an outbreak 
before a substantial population of birds and / or humans 
contract the virus.  We note that the current surveillance 
system, if operating as intended, would provide a 95% 
 
MANILA 00001567  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
confidence level for detecting AI but only under the 
assumption that the infection rate had reached 20%.  Under 
current circumstances, an AI incident would most probably 
be detected by some other means, not the formal 
surveillance system. 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
Post Recommendations 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
9.  (SBU)  Post priorities to support in-country 
preparedness efforts are as follows: 
--support to strengthening surveillance and in-country 
diagnostic capacity; 
--assistance to developing local level preparedness 
capability including simulations for outbreak response; 
--support to developing an early warning system for 
reporting unusual poultry deaths in the rural areas; and 
--facilitating public-private alliances and their 
contribution to indemnification funds. 
10.  (SBU)  Additional resources are critically needed 
to protect the Philippines from entry and spread of Avian 
and pandemic influenza. 
KENNEY