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Viewing cable 06LIMA1345, VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: CRACKS APPEAR IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1345 2006-04-07 18:21 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0022
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1345/01 0971821
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071821Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9648
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3224
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6652
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9292
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0220
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0394
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 001345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: CRACKS APPEAR IN 
APRA'S "SOLID NORTH" 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please Protect Accordingly. 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1.  (U) During a 4/4-5 visit to the northern coastal area, 
local observers told Poloff that APRA presidential candidate 
Alan Garcia will likely carry Chiclayo by a narrow margin, 
with Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores and Union por el Peru's 
(UPP) Ollanta Humala battling for second place.  In Piura, 
Garcia may well lose to Flores, as dissatisfaction with 
unpopular local APRA officials is dragging him down.  The 
north coast has traditionally been considered solid APRA 
country, and Garcia is counting on a strong showing there to 
carry him into the second round of presidential balloting. 
Consequently, the evidence of wavering supper for APRA in 
this region bodes ill for Garcia's prospects.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
A Swing Through APRA's "Solid North" 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (U) Poloff visited Chiclayo and Piura on 4/4 and 4/5 to 
gauge support for the different candidates in two regions 
that have historically formed a key part of APRA's political 
base in the so-called "solid north."  In Chiclayo, Poloff met 
with Binational Board members Luis Noriega (businessman, 
construction) and Victor Vaca (attorney); Dr. Julio Hidalgo 
of the local Ombudsman's Office; Lambayeque Regional 
President Yehude Simon; Regional Government Technical Advisor 
Juan Sandoval; editor of the local paper "La Industria" Ivan 
Vasquez; University of Pedro Ruiz Gallo Rector Francis 
Villena Rodriguez; and President of the Chiclayo Chamber of 
Commerce German Fernandez Castro (raises fruits for export to 
the U.S. and EU).  In Piura, Poloff met with Editor for local 
paper "El Tiempo: Rosa Laban; National University of Piura 
Rector Antenor Aliaga and his staff; Dr. Eugenia Fernan 
Zegarra of the local Ombudsman's Office; University of Piura 
(private) Vice Rector Dr. Sergio Balarezo; APRA Party Piura 
Regional President Cesar Trelles; and local "Radio Cultivalu" 
Director Ricardo Castillo. 
 
3.  (U) Chiclayo and Piura are primarily dependent on 
agriculture.  Chiclayo produces sugar, though the industry is 
very weak, hobbled by an inefficient series of cooperatives 
that date from the 1968-74 Velasco era and depend on state 
support for their survival.  Piura's economic base lies in 
agricultural exports (fruits like lemons and mangos as well 
as paprika), a significant fishing industry as well as 
petroleum production. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Chiclayo Seen Going with Garcia, But Barely 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Most observers in Chiclayo stated that the region 
would likely go for Alan Garcia, but not by much.  A 
constantly-repeated refrain was, "The North is no longer so 
solid (for APRA)."  When asked to hazard a guess as to final 
vote percentages in the presidential race, most locals 
predicted that Garcia would win Lambayeque Department with 
about 30 percent of the local vote, trailed closely by Flores 
Nano and Ollanta Humala, who would fight it out for the 
second spot. 
 
5.  (SBU) While most saw Garcia winning, Dr. Julio Hidalgo of 
the Ombudsman's Office, a person with constant contact with 
poor, marginalized Peruvians who have complaints against the 
government, predicted that Ollanta Humala would carry 
Chiclayo.  Hidalgo noted several factors that had contributed 
to Humala's support, including: opposition to the Peru Trade 
Promotion Agreement from local sugar producers, whose 
inefficient cooperatives survive on protest-generated tax 
breaks and occasional state subsidies; the strong support 
Humala has in rural areas; and the fact that many locals 
trust neither Lourdes Flores nor Alan Garcia. 
 
6.  (SBU) Hidalgo echoed other local observer's comments in 
both Chiclayo and Piura that most of Humala's supporters are 
socially and economically marginalized persons who at a gut 
 
level identify with Humala as a protest instrument, and may 
have vague hopes to getting some benefit from him should he 
become President. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Humala Has Captured the Left's Electorate 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (U) Regional President Yehude Simon, leader of the 
leftist Humanist Party (part of the Concertacion 
Decentralizada alliance), lamented how the combination of 
fragmentation on the left and Humala's populist message has 
enabled the ultra-nationalist "outsider" candidate to rob 
much of the left's natural electorate among the urban poor 
and marginalized rural dwellers.  Simon said that he knew of 
middle class leftists so disgusted with APRA and Lourdes 
Flores that they will vote for Humala.  Simon himself plans 
to vote for his alliance partner Susanna Villaran in the 
first round, but stated unequivocally that he would support 
Lourdes Flores in the second round because, as he put it, 
"She is a democrat, not an autocrat (like Humala), and we can 
work to correct her errors."  Simon views Humala as a serious 
threat to Peruvian democracy. 
 
8.  (U) In regard to Chiclayo's five Congressional seats, 
most observers expected a split result, similar to that 
likely in the presidential race, with APRA taking two 
Congressional seats and the rest being divided between 
Humala's Union por el Peru (UPP) Party, Paniagua's Centrist 
Front and Unidad Nacional. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Could Lourdes Pull an Upset in Piura? 
------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) The majority of local contacts in Piura said that 
Flores was on the verge of upsetting Garcia.  Ironically, 
APRA's domination of the municipal, district and regional 
governments is working against the party.  The Regional 
President, Cesar Trelles, has suffered politically from 
scandals in his management of the government's "Glass of 
Milk" Program, which provides free milk to poor families. 
Two years in a row, the milk has been stored badly; last year 
it soured and this year it was exposed to the elements before 
delivery.  In addition, Trelles has been criticized for 
accepting a post as Garcia's local campaign chief while 
serving as Regional President.  He quit as campaign head 
after the local Ombudsman's Office cited him for conflict of 
interest.  Finally, the Ombudsman's Office has cited Trelles 
for mixing campaign activities with his duties as Regional 
President.  Ombudsman's local rep Eugenia Fernan Zegarra said 
that Trelles appeared to be hoarding project funds so that 
initiatives could be announced late in the campaign.  Her 
office also publicly cited Trelles for advertising 
inauguration ceremonies in the newspapers with ads that used 
APRA's colors (Trelles has stopped running the questionable 
ads). 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Rally to Rally, Lourdes Comes Out Ahead 
--------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (U) Dissatisfaction with local officials marred a Garcia 
rally in Piura on 4/2.  Local motor taxi drivers (drivers of 
small-motor, three-wheeled vehicles that operate informally 
as taxis) are angry with a municipal ordinance that prevents 
them from operating as taxis.  When Garcia arrived, the 
drivers formed a protest caravan that interrupted the 
beginning of his rally.  In contrast, a number of observers 
noted that a 4/4 rally by Flores went far better.  She 
attracted an enthusiastic crowd of 8,000 that was notably 
young and female. 
 
11.  (U) A local poll taken March 23 and 28 puts Flores in 
the lead with 26 percent of the vote.  Garcia trails with 23 
percent and Humala scores 19 percent.  The poll measured the 
opinions of 440 local voters who lived in 14 districts of the 
8 provinces of Piura, an area that includes 67 percent of the 
Piura Region's population. 
 
------------------------------ 
 
Local APRA Officials Confident 
------------------------------ 
 
12.  (SBU) Despite evident public criticism, APRA Regional 
President Cesar Trelles and his advisors waxed confident in a 
meeting with Poloff.  They were sure that Alan Garcia would 
win the local vote with 42-44 percent, sweeping in as many as 
three of the Region's six congressional candidates with him. 
(The other Congressional seats, they said, would be divided 
between Humala's Union for Peru, Lourdes Flores' National 
Unity and Valentin Paniagua's Central Front.) 
 
13.  (SBU) The APRA reps spent a significant amount of time 
describing how a second Garcia government would be different 
from the first.  Garcia, they said, had learned from his 
mistakes and would not nationalize banks, permit high 
inflaion or antagonize the United States this time around. 
Garcia believes in "the Chilean model" of Socialist 
Presidents Lagos and Bachelet, they said.  APRA would also 
govern in alliance with other parties.  Trelles advisor 
Victor Raul Trujillo told Poloff that he would not be 
surprised if Garcia invited Flores to take a high post in a 
future Garcia government. 
 
-------- 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
14.  (SBU) APRA will need a very strong showing in its "solid 
north" if Garcia is to reach the presidential run-off and/or 
if the party is to win a plurality in the next congress. 
Poloff's observations indicate that both possibilities are in 
doubt, given Flores' apparent appeal in the region, coupled 
with popular disenchantment for APRA's discredited 
performance in its northern regional and municipal 
governments.  End Comment. 
STRUBLE