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Viewing cable 06LIMA1344, OAS OBSERVER MISSION AND ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1344 2006-04-07 18:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1344/01 0971818
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071818Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9645
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3221
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9289
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0217
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0391
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6649
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4195
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 001344 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: OAS OBSERVER MISSION AND ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES 
CONFIDENT THAT BALLOTING WILL BE FREE, FAIR AND SECURE 
 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
1.  (U)  The heads of the National Electoral Board (JNE) and 
the Office of National Electoral Processes (ONPE) told 
Polcouns 4/6 that they were confident the 4/9 general 
elections will proceed in a free, fair and secure manner. 
OAS Observer Mission director Lloyd Axworthy concurred with 
this assessment.  Electoral materials have been distributed 
nationwide, citizens drafted to man voting tables have been 
trained, software to transmit vote counts from polling 
locations to ONPE headquarters has been tested, over 147,000 
police and military personnel will be deployed to provide 
public security, guard polling places, and protect ONPE 
personnel.  ONPE plans to report 30-50 percent of the results 
by midnight election day, and the OAS Observer Mission (to 
which the Embassy is contributing 41 volunteers) and the NGO 
Transparencia will also provide quick counts.  While the 
electoral process is expected to be smooth, the complexity of 
the ballot itself could result in a large number of spoiled 
ballots and challenges.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------- 
ELECTION OFFICIALS POSITIVE 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  JNE President Enrique Mendoza and ONPE Director 
Magdalena Chu told Polcouns 4/6 that they were confident that 
the 4/9 general elections would proceed in a free, fair and 
secure manner.  Chu noted that ONPE has distributed 
sufficient election materials nationwide and overseas to 
serve Peru's 16,494,906 registered voters (457,891 in the 
exterior); carried out training for citizens who have been 
drafted to man the 85,971 voting tables in country (another 
2510 tables are managed by Peruvian Consulates in the 
exterior); will have sufficient officials at voting centers 
to guide voting table members who missed their training 
sessions; and held successful simulations on 4/2 of the 
voting process and of the software to be used to transmit 
results from polling centers to ONPE headquarters.  Mendoza 
said that the JNE, which supervises the electoral process and 
resolves election-related legal challenges and issues, is 
satisfied with ONPE's preparations. 
 
3.  (U)  OAS Observer Mission director Lloyd Axworthy 
(Canada) concurred with these assessments in a 4/6 discussion 
with Polcouns.  While acknowledging that there had been 
tensions between the JNE and ONPE, Axworthy thought that 
these had been resolved and foresaw a relatively smooth 
electoral process.  In prior comments to the press, Axworthy 
stated that he expected the voting to be "complicated" due to 
the large number of parties and candidates competing (20 
running for President, while up to 24 parties/alliances are 
presenting congressional lists in each of Peru's 25 electoral 
districts), but completely discounted the possibility of 
significant fraud and expressed his assurance that the 
process will be fully transparent. 
 
-------------------------------- 
POLICE AND MILITARY OUT IN FORCE 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  Gen. Jose Williams Zapata, Head of the Armed Forces 
Joint Command, and Gen. Luis Vizcarra, Director of Operations 
of the Peruvian National Police (PNP), held a joint press 
conference on 4/5 to explain the GOP's security measures on 
election day and provide a demonstration of their 
organizations' cooperation.  They announced that over 147,000 
military and police personnel will be deployed on election 
day to guarantee public security, guard and maintain order in 
polling centers, and protect ONPE personnel as they collect 
and transport vote tally sheets to ONPE headquarters in Lima. 
 ONPE Director Chu told Polcouns on 3/19 that she was very 
pleased with the cooperation her organization was receiving 
from the security forces, noting that both the Armed Forces 
and the PNP stationed liaison officers at ONPE over a month 
before the election to facilitate coordination. 
 
-------------------------- 
REPORTING ELECTION RESULTS 
 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (U)  Chu originally announced that she expected ONPE 
would be able to report 50 percent of the results in the 
presidential race by midnight 4/9, although lately she has 
cautioned that the actual total may be in the neighborhood of 
30 percent.  Eighty percent of the votes should be counted 
within 2-3 days, she said, with resolution of the remaining 
20 percent depending upon how long it takes vote tally sheets 
to arrive in Lima from distant rural and jungle regions (a 
week or more in the case of areas that can only be reached by 
boat or on foot) and on the resolution of challenges to 
disputed ballots by the JNE. 
 
6.  (U)  The Organic Law of Elections provides that vote 
projections can be published by the media and NGOs only after 
ONPE divulges its quick count results, or after 22:00 on 
election day, whichever comes first.  The OAS Observer 
Mission, to which the Embassy is contributing 41 
officers/spouses as volunteers (14 in the interior, 27 in 
Lima) plans to announce its quick count results, as does the 
pro-democracy NGO Transparencia.  Local pollsters and media 
companies are also expected to conduct their own exit polling. 
 
---------------------- 
POSSIBLE PROBLEM AREAS 
---------------------- 
 
7. (SBU)  Public security in isolated rural areas, 
particularly where the Sendero Luminoso (SL) terrorist 
organization is active, and voter confusion over the 
complexity of the ballot are the two chief concerns as 
election day nears.  The massive deployment of military and 
PNP forces is designed to ensure public security, but some 
issues remain.  Percy Medina, Secretary General of 
Transparencia (which has placed observers nationwide), told 
Polcouns that he is worried about rumors his NGO has received 
that activists loyal to ultra-nationalist "outsider" 
candidate Ollanta Humala, perhaps in collusion with local 
mid-level military commanders, may attempt to pressure voters 
or stuff ballot boxes.  There are also reports that SL 
columns have warned rural communities not/not to vote and in 
some cases taken residents' identification documents, which 
would prevent them from receiving voting materials. 
 
8.  (U)  The complexity of the ballot itself could have a 
substantial effect on the election's outcome, a concern noted 
publicly by OAS Observer Mission director Axworthy.  The 
ballot is divided into three sections, covering the 
presidential, congressional, and Andean Parliament races 
respectively.  The section on the presidential race contains 
two vertical columns, listing the name of the party/alliance, 
its symbol, and the photo of its candidate.  The sections on 
the congressional and Andean Parliament races each contain 
four vertical columns, listing the name of the 
party/alliance, its symbol, and two blank boxes for casting 
"preferential votes."  Voters are supposed to register their 
votes by placing an "X" through the symbol of the party they 
wish to vote for in each separate electoral race, and they 
have the option of writing the identification number of up to 
two candidates they wish to cast preferential votes for in 
the two blank boxes provided in both the congressional and 
Andean Parliament sections.  (Note:  Parties win 
congressional and Andean Parliament seats in proportion to 
the votes they receive in each electoral district -- 25 
electoral districts in the legislative race, one national 
electoral district for the Andean Parliament -- with the 
candidates from the winning parties that obtain the most 
preferential votes occupying the seats.  End Note). 
 
9.  (SBU)  The NGO Transparencia carried out a voting 
simulation at USAID two weeks ago, in which the latter's 
Peruvian employees participated.  These employees have a much 
higher level of education than the average Peruvian, but 
nonetheless their confusion over the ballot resulted in 25 
percent of the completed ballots containing serious faults 
(wrong boxes checked, boxes circled, etc...) that could lead 
them to be challenged or disqualified.  Transparencia 
Secretary General Medina commented that this result matched 
 
SIPDIS 
similar simulations his NGO carried out in marginal areas of 
the capital.  ONPE Director Chu, in her 3/19 meeting with 
 
Polcouns, noted that her organization's public education 
efforts have fallen far short of previous outreach programs 
in the past due to budget cuts:  whereas ONPE received 277 
million Soles for the 2001 election, it would only receive 
205-210 million Soles for the 2006 process. 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
10.  (SBU)  There is every indication that the electoral 
process will on the whole be free, fair, transparent and 
secure.  Problems, if they arise, will probably be related to 
the counting of votes, given the complexity of the ballots, 
and to the very real possibility that the respective quick 
counts and exit polls may provide widely divergent results. 
As the presidential race is a hotly contested three-way 
battle, we can expect the odd-candidate-out and his/her 
supporters to challenge the admission/exclusion of 
imperfectly marked ballots and the fairness of quick counts 
and exit polls that rely on an incomplete percentage or a 
small sampling of the national vote.  END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE