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Viewing cable 06LIMA1326, VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: JUNIN DIVIDED, BUT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1326 2006-04-06 15:21 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1326/01 0961521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061521Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9615
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3210
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6638
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9273
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0205
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0380
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 001326 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: JUNIN DIVIDED, BUT 
HUMALA HAS AN EDGE 
 
REF: A. LIMA 1277 
 
     B. LIMA 1154 
     C. LIMA 658 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified, please handle accordingly. 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
 
1. (SBU) In Junin Department and its capital Huancayo, the 
commercial hub of the central sierra, community leaders told 
Polofff during a 3/27-29 visit that ultra-nationalist, 
"outsider", Union por el Peru (UPP) party presidential 
candidate Ollanta Humala would likely win a plurality of 
votes, but they expected a second round run-off.  Reflecting 
the country's electoral uncertainty, most community leaders 
believed Lourdes Flores would place second, but would not 
discount Alan Garcia and his APRA party upsetting her bid to 
make it to the second round.  Business and academic leaders 
were confident of Flores or Garcia pulling out a close win 
over Humala in a second round.  However a popular, local 
radio program director, expressed concern that "las masas" 
(the masses) strongly favored Humala, and would carry him to 
the presidency.  Most characterized the region's rural areas, 
central jungle, and marginalized urban communities as 
Humala's strongholds.  Community leaders attributed Humala's 
support to a vengeful electorate that "had nothing to lose" 
by voting for Humala and rejecting the self-promoting, 
non-delivering political class.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Poloff visited Huancayo, the capital of Junin 
Department on 3/27-29 to assess electoral trends in the 
region.  Junin has a significant mining and agricultural 
sector and consists of a high Andes mountain region (sierra) 
and a rugged jungle to the east.  Poloff met with the Deputy 
Mayor of Huancayo Oscar Risce, the Regional Vice President 
Miguel Angel Garcia Ramos, 15-50 Radio News Program Director 
Angel Unchupaico, Director Hector Mayhuire of local leading 
daily "Correo", Rector of the National University of the 
Center Jesus David Sanchez Marin, Program Coordinator of the 
San Pedro Institute of Superior Education Juan Batista Privat 
Gomez, Chamber of Commerce (COC) President Luis Alberto 
Torres Garay, and COC members Marco Antonio Duran Condori and 
Enrique Sifuentes Martinez.  Poloff also discussed the 
election with numerous residents on the streets and attended 
a rally by Socialist Party presidential candidate, Javier 
Diez Canseco. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Humala dominant, but not invincible 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) All those interviewed predicted Humala would capture 
the most first round votes in Huancayo and Junin.  Reflecting 
the bitter battle for second place, most community leaders 
placed Unidad Nacional presidential candidate Lourdes Flores 
in second, but would not count out APRA presidential 
candidate Alan Garcia surging ahead to displace her and face 
Humala in a second round. All observers predicted a very 
close, contested race in the second round.  Regional Director 
for Correo said that in a second round he expected most print 
media (national and regional) to be very critical of Humala 
(with the possible exception of "La Republica" and "La 
Razon").  Business leaders from the Chamber of Commerce said 
the same about the regional business sector uniting to oppose 
Humala in a second round. 
 
4. (SBU) All observers agreed that the central jungle region 
east of the Andes, which longed for Fujimori and the public 
works projects that he brought to marginalized communities, 
would overwhelmingly support Humala, rejecting the other 
"known" politicians.   Similarly, the community leaders 
expected rural areas in the sierra to strongly support 
Humala.  Those interviewed said this rural and jungle support 
for Fujimori would not/not transfer to Alliance for the 
Future candidate Martha Chavez because Chavez rarely left 
Lima to visit the provinces and she was associated with the 
political class. (Note: Chavez is a Congresswoman for Lima 
Department. End Note.)  Observers characterized the 
electorate in central sierra communities (population 
centers), including Huancayo, as being more divided, with 
Humala strong but with significant support for Garcia and 
 
Flores.  Some interviewees mentioned pockets of support for 
Frente de Centro presidential candidate Valentin Paniagua, 
based on his ties to popular former president Fernando 
Belaunde.  However, most agreed Paniagua's campaign had 
little traction. 
 
5. (SBU) The party of the Regional President, Unidos por 
Junin (UPJ), formed a strategic alliance with Unidad Nacional 
and endorses Flores.  (Note: UPJ broke off from Paniagua's 
Accion Popular before the last regional elections to form an 
independent, regional party. End Note.)  The Huancayo Deputy 
Mayor Risce (of the APRA party) confessed that APRA was not 
as strong in Junin as it is in Peru's North and surprisingly 
estimated that Garcia was in third place in Junin.  However, 
Ricse characterized the support for Flores as fickle, unlike 
Garcia's and Humala's.  (Note: A water system concession 
project proposed by the municipality is being actively 
debated with strong opposition by some community sectors.  On 
3/22 a rally opposing the concession attracted 12-15,000 
protesters, some burning doll effigies of the mayor.  This 
local water concession promoted by the APRA municipal 
government could be a local campaign problem for the APRA 
party. End Note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Humala supporters - When you ain't got nothing, you got 
nothing to lose 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
6. (SBU) A recurring theme from the interviewees was that 
Humala was capitalizing on the vote of people who feel sQ 
marginalized that they have nothing to lose by casting their 
lot with Humala; by some estimates, this is a majority of the 
country's population.  Interviewees said Humala supporters 
are people disenchanted with politic who reject the 
political status quo.  They said the electorate perceives 
that Toledo did not do enough to fight corruption, and that 
he and his family benefited from his position.  Also, though 
Toledo created jobs and expanded the economy, those benefits 
did not reach the sierra provinces.  Support for Humala is a 
reaction to these perceived government failures.   The 
Regional Director for Correo said Humala supporters were, 
"voting with their livers" (emotionally) and not with their 
heads.   Chamber of Commerce members described the cynicism 
that some sectors had toward Humala and politicians with the 
saying, "Aunque (Humala) es otro ladron, es nuevo" (Even if 
he is another thief, at least he is a new one.) 
 
7. (SBU) Popular radio program director Unchupaico whose main 
audiences are "las masas" (the masses) in and around Huancayo 
said he perceived the Humala phenomenon as the product of a 
young democracy in which the C, D, and E socio-economic 
sectors (89 percent of the population) are not feeling the 
benefits of the current economic model.  He said this 
sentiment together with a collective sense that politicians 
and government institutions are corrupt, has led to an 
extremist tendency in the poorer sectors and creates a space 
for a radical voice, like Humala.  Humala energizes this 
population, which consists of the same people who supported 
Fujimori and subsequently Toledo in past elections, and they 
believe Humala will be firm, shake up the system, and satisfy 
their thirst for change and a better life.  Unchupaico 
predicted Humala would win over 50 percent of the vote in 
neighboring departments of Ayacucho, Huancavelica, Huanuco, 
and parts of Junin.  Unchupaico's unsolicited advice to the 
U.S. and the future government was that these marginalized 
populations needed "a lollipop, a drop of water, something" 
to satiate them, or they would become even more radical. 
 
8. (SBU) Several working women on the street (taxi drivers, 
waitresses) told Poloff that there was a growing fear that 
Humala could become president, and they and their friends had 
talked, only half-jokingly, about leaving the country in that 
case. (Note: This fear among some Peruvians, echoed in some 
sectors of Lima is a relatively new phenomenon now that 
Humala remains at the top of the polls and people are 
beginning to analyze the consequences as the election draws 
near. End Note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
Candidate visits to Huancayo - Humala drew the biggest crowd 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
9. (SBU) The three top presidential contenders held rallies 
 
in Huancayo during the last month (Humala on 3/12, Flores on 
3/18, and Garcia on 3/23). All observers agreed that Humala 
attracted the most people to his rally in the main plaza, 
followed in size by Garcia and then Flores.  Most observers 
said it was clear that Garcia and Flores had bussed in 
supporters from outside of town. Those interviewed said it 
did not appear that the Humala campaign bussed in supporters, 
but many of the attendees appeared to be there out of 
curiosity.  The size of the Humala rally is significant given 
that it was on a day with inclement weather and was plagued 
with rumors that Humala would cancel because of the 
accidental death on the same morning of one of his top 
advisors. 
 
10. (U) According to observers, Flores was well received at 
her Huancayo rally, almost filling the main plaza (La 
Republica estimated 10,000 people). After her Huancayo rally 
she traveled south to neighboring Huancavelica where she was 
confronted by Humala supporters throwing rocks and bottles 
and chanting "Ollanta Presidente".  In Huancavelica, riot 
police stood on stage to protect her during her speech. 
 
11. (SBU) Humala previously visited Huancayo with mixed 
results in early February, before submission of his 
congressional candidate lists. University Rector Sanchez told 
Poloff that Humala was invited to the National University of 
the Center by a far left student organization.  The speaking 
engagement turned ugly, when Humala was shouted down by a 
faction of his party who had voted for a list of 
congressional candidates that Humala had rejected in favor of 
his own appointments.  The event, he said, was indicative of 
the internal conflicts within Humala's campaign during the 
development of the congressional lists. 
 
---------------------------------- 
A Divided Congressional Delegation 
---------------------------------- 
 
12. (SBU) Out of 115 candidates for Junin's five 
congressional seats, most observers said  UPP, UN, and APRA 
would divide the spoils.  Some observers believed a 
Fujimorista Alliance for the Future congressional candidate 
could win a seat given Fujimori's legacy of support in the 
central jungle region.  All interviewees said the Junin 
electorate had a poor image of Congress and the candidates. 
Deputy Mayor Ricse and others thought that the Junin 
Congressional list for Humala's UPP party was prepared at the 
last minute and filled with largely unknown, poorly qualified 
opportunists.  He characterized leading UPP congressional 
candidate Edgard Reymundo as, "rabid". 
 
13. (U) On one weekday evening, a diverse group of 
approximately 300 supporters for UN congressional candidate 
Hildebrando Tapia and Flores marched through the streets of 
Huancayo.  On the next evening a boisterous group of about 80 
UN supporters chanted and danced on a street corner of the 
main Huancayo plaza.  A group of approximately 40 supporters 
of UPP congressional candidate Reymundo and Humala, primarily 
young men, gathered on the opposite street corner.  Riot 
police arrived but there was no conflict. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Socialist Party Candidate stumps in Huancayo 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
14. (U) Poloff attended a rally by Socialist Party 
presidential candidate, Javier Diez Canseco, in Huancayo's 
main square on 3/27 with around 1,300 attendees.  Diez 
Canseco's main point that incited the crowd was that it was 
shameful for Peru to be so rich in natural resources and yet 
to have such high levels of poverty.  He highlighted the low 
returns to Peru on the profits from natural gas and metals, 
singling out the proposed Canadian Toromocho copper project, 
where he said the returns to the region would be 0.51 
percent, which he claimed was one-sixth of what was entitled 
to the region by law.  Diez Canseco said mining companies 
were withholding some $350 million in profits and taxes from 
communities. (Note: Though there are disputes regarding tax 
assessments, there are no/no credible reports of mining 
companies ignoring tax requirements. End Note.) He was very 
critical of the Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (PTPA) saying 
that it was not fair for Peru to compete on the same level as 
the U.S. given Peru's lack of technology, deficient 
infrastructure, and lack of government support.  Diez Canseco 
 
stoked the fears of the crowd about genetic resources, 
claiming that Peruvians in the future would have to pay for 
the genetic resource patents of popular herb "una del gato" 
and "mate" tea.  Diez Canseco said his priorities as 
President would be education, health, and basic nutrition. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
15. (SBU) Junin in some ways is a microcosm of the country 
going into the elections - very polarized between the haves 
and the have-nots. On one hand, a significant cross-section 
of the population feels marginalized and betrayed by their 
own government. They feel they have nothing to lose and are 
willing to risk it all on a politically unknown, new face 
with which they can identify.  On the other hand, a sector of 
the population wants change, but not radical change, and is 
frightened by the prospects of a wild card Humala government. 
  End Comment. 
STRUBLE