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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES758, Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06BUENOSAIRES758 | 2006-04-03 19:22 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Buenos Aires |
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #0758/01 0931922
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031922Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4032
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 2128
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000758
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND CHRIS KUSHLIS
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ
USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER
USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH AND ROBERT WHOLEY
USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
the week ending March 31, 2006
--------------------------------------------- --------
Weekly Highlights
--------------------------------------------- --------
- GOA expands its restrictions on beef exports to
include processed beef and cattle.
- Enargas allows distributors to increase gas tariffs
an average of 20 percent.
- The Chamber of Deputies approved the rescission of
Aguas Argentina's concession contract
- Standard and Poor's upgrades Argentina's sovereign
credit rating.
- February trade surplus reaches USD 706 million -
below market expectations.
- Commentary of the Week: "Defending the View that the
Recent GDO Increase was a Historical Record"
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA expands its restrictions on beef exports to
include processed beef and cattle.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶1. On March 31, the GOA issued a resolution
strengthening restrictions on beef export. The
resolution includes exports of processed beef and
cattle in the previous 180-day beef export ban. The
aim of this measure is to increase local supply and
avoid further increases in domestic beef prices. With
this new restriction, only beef exports to the
European Union under the Hilton quota program and
exports guaranteed under bilateral agreements with
Argentina are exempt from the suspension
--------------------------------------------- --------
Enargas allowed distributors to increase gas tariffs
an a average 20 percent.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶2. Enargas (the National Gas Regulator) allowed an
average 20 percent rise in the price of natural gas
for wholesale users (industrial and commercial users).
The increase will be retroactive to July 2005 and will
serve to compensate gas distributors for the higher
prices they have been paying for gas at wellhead.
Still pending is the gas tariff increase for
residential users.
--------------------------------------------- --------
The Chamber of Deputies approved the rescission of
Aguas Argentina's concession contract
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶3. On March 29, the Chamber of Deputies approved the
bill that rescinds Aguas Argentina's concession
contract. However, Deputies postponed until next week
the debate on the creation of the state-owned water
company AYSA (Agua y Saneamientos Argentinos SA),
because some deputies questioned the legal figure of
the new company.
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA to issue USD 500 million of the Bonar V bond in
the near future.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶4. On March 28, the Minister of Economy Felisa Micela
announced that the GOA is planning to issue USD 500
million worth of the Bonar V by the end of next week.
The issuance would be the second tranche in a program
of USD 1.5 billion that is planned for this year. The
first tranche of USD 500 million of the Bonar V was
sold last week at a yield of 8.36 percent. Miceli
stated that GOA aims to issue the USD 1.5 billion
worth of Bonar V during the year, in order to fulfill
the 2006 financial program. The Bonar V is a USD
denominated bond that amortizes principal at maturity
and pays 7 percent interest coupon semiannually.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Standard and Poor's upgraded Argentina's sovereign
credit rating.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶5. On March 24, the credit rating agency Standard
and Poor's (SP) upgraded Argentina's long-term
sovereign credit rating to "B" from "B minus" and
short-term credit rating to "B" from "C". SP press
release stated that Argentina's upgrade was supported
by its solid economic and fiscal performances in
recent years and the expectation that this trend will
continue over the next two years. The sovereign
credit rating has a "stable" outlook, reflecting
Argentina's improved external and fiscal flexibility.
--------------------------------------------- --------
February trade surplus of USD 706 million - below
market expectations.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶6. The February trade surplus reached USD 706
million, below the BCRA consensus forecast of USD 804
million. The lower than expected surplus is due to
stronger import growth. Export revenues increased 17
percent y-o-y to USD 3 billion, with increases in both
prices (+11 percent) and quantities (5 percent).
Exports were driven by an increase in fuel and energy
(+32 percent y-o-y), agro-industrial products (+24
percent y-o-y), industrial goods (+8 percent y-o-y)
and primary goods (+6 percent y-o-y). Imports
increased 25 percent y-o-y to USD 2.3 billion, showing
strong domestic demand, with increases in both
quantities (+22 percent) and prices (+2 percent).
Imports were driven by increases in accessories for
capital goods (+42 percent), vehicles for passengers
(+ 40 percent), consumer goods (+36 percent), capital
goods (+34 percent), fuel and oil (+16 percent) and
intermediate goods (+9 percent). According to the
BCRA consensus survey, the trade surplus is expected
to narrow to USD 10.2 billion in 2006 compared to USD
11.3 billion in 2005.
--------------------------------------------- --------
BCRA rolls over its maturities. Investors
concentrated their bids in Nobacs and short term
Lebacs.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶7. The BCRA received ARP 662 million in bids at its
March 28 Lebac auction, less than the ARP 1.3 billion
in Lebacs that came due during the week. However, the
BCRA received ARP 962 million in bids in its Nobac
auction. As in previous auctions, the BCRA was able
to roll over its maturities by accepting bids for ARP
1.35 billion (ARP 649 million in Lebacs and ARP 702
million in Nobacs). The yield on the 35-day Lebac
decreased from 6.7 percent to 6.69 percent, while the
yield on the 63-day Lebac dropped ten basis points
from 6.95 percent to 6.85 percent. The yield on the
91-day Lebac dropped from 7.28 percent to 7.18
percent. Lebacs for other maturities were withdrawn
due to lack of interest. Investors concentrated more
than 59 percent of their bids in Nobacs of more than 9
months. The spread on the nine-month Nobac decreased
two basis points from 3.0 percent to 2.8 percent,
while the spread on the two-year Nobac dropped nine
basis points from 4.82 percent to 4.73 percent.
Investors continue concentrating their bids in Nobacs,
since these instruments have a variable rate and
provide a higher yield and short-term Lebacs given
that these instruments do not have any adjustment in
its interest.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Balance of Payments: Current account surplus of USD
5.4 billion and net capital inflows of USD 2.7 billion
in 2005.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶8. On March 22, the GOA announced its balance of
payments results with a current account surplus of USD
1.5 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing total
current account surplus to USD 5.4 billion in 2005 -
compared to USD 3.3 billion in 2004. The trade
surplus reached USD 12.7 billion in 2005 - compared to
USD 13.2 billion in 2004.
¶9. The capital and financial account showed net
capital inflows of USD 1.5 billion in the fourth
quarter, bringing total net capital inflows to USD 2.7
billion in 2005 - compared to USD 1.7 billion in 2004.
Inflows during 2005 were mainly from the non-financial
public sector for USD 611 million and from the non-
financial private sector for USD 3.5 billion, which
were partially offset by outflows of the financial
private sector outflows of USD 1.4 billion. The
increase in capital inflows is mainly explained by the
end of the debt exchange, the increasing demand for
GOA bonds, and the strong economic growth that boosted
investments inside the country. Central Bank reserves
increased USD 8.8 billion mainly due to BCRA purchases
in the foreign exchange market, bringing BCRA reserves
at the end of December to USD 28 billion.
--------------------------------------------- --------
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2005 2004 Difference
(USD in M)
--------------------------------------------- --------
(A) CURRENT ACCOUNT 5,407 3,278 2,129
1 TRADE BALANCE 12,714 13,239 -525
2 SERVICES -1,666 -1,666 0
3 INVESTMENT SERVICES & DIVIDENDS
-6,312 -8,922 2,610
4 TRANSFERS 671 627 44
--------------------------------------------- --------
(B) CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
2,764 1,782 982
1 CAPITAL ACCOUNT 90 43 47
2 FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 2,674 1,739 935
--------------------------------------------- --------
(C) ERRORS AND OMMISSIONS 686 259 427
--------------------------------------------- --------
(D) INTERNATIONAL RESERVES -8,857 -5,319 -3,538
--------------------------------------------- --------
OVERALL BALANCE (A)+(B)+(C)-(D)
0.00 - 0.00
--------------------------------------------- --------
--------------------------------------------- --------
March Government Confidence Index up 3.1 percent m-o-
m.
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¶10. The Government Confidence Index increased 3.1
percent m-o-m in March to 2.7 points, and is 11 points
above the average during the Kirchner administration,
and well above the 1.2 point reading in May 2003 when
President Kirchner took office. Confidence in the
GOA's ability to solve citizens' problems is still the
factor generating the most confidence. Public opinion
of GOA general performance increased 5 percent m-o-m,
while public opinion on efficiency of public spending
remained unchanged. The index fell 4 percent y-o-y.
[The Government Confidence Index is a survey-based
index prepared by Di Tella University. It varies from
zero to five points and seeks to measure public
opinion of GOA general performance, efficiency of
pubic spending, honesty of GOA officials and the
government's ability to solve problems.]
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The peso was unchanged against the USD this week,
closing at 3.09 ARP/USD.
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¶11. The peso remained flat versus the USD this week,
closing at 3.09 ARP/USD. Earlier in the week, the
peso depreciated one cent to 3.10 ARP/USD, due to
strong dollar demand. The BCRA purchased USD 98
million in the FX market in the first four days of the
week, and only purchased EUR 4 million in the last two
days of the week. The BCRA has purchased USD 2.3
billion since the beginning of the year, compared to
USD 829 million during the same period last year. The
peso exchange rate has depreciated 1.3 percent since
the beginning of the calendar year.
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Commentary of the Week: "Defending the View that the
Recent GDO Increase was a Historical Record". (Note:
By Guillermo Wierzba, President of the CEFID-AR think
tank, published in response to the article by Abel
Viglione reproduced in last week's Weekly Report. End
Note.)
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¶12. The force of the quantitative data on the
evolution of Argentine economy demands recognition of
its successful performance by economists of different
schools of thought. Nevertheless, their deepest
reflections and conclusions are dissimilar and come
from distinctly different points of view about
economic processes.
¶13. The orthodox point of view does not give up a
good dose of realism and sense of opportunity, and
expresses opinions that assume the improvements that
the current numbers represent are unobjectionable.
But they omit to pass judgment on the merits of the
success that has come from the change in the political
and economic paradigm, and they express reservations
and warnings with respect to the most audacious,
heterdox and progressive elements of the course
chosen.
¶14. Abel Viglione, an economist with FIEL, published
a note [reproduced in the March 23rd Weekly Report]
in which he simultaneously emphasized the growth
obtained from 2003 to the present, but then disputes
quantitatively this evolution in an analysis comparing
it with other situations from different historical
periods from the 19th century until convertibility.
In the mentioned note, he runs the methodological risk
of putting together short, three-year series, and
comparing with them dispersed moments in a long period
that runs from the 19th to the 21st century. The
exercise is carried out by contrasting the components
of aggregate demand, making abstract very important
qualitative elements: the profound differences in the
composition and complexity of GDP in the different
moments analyzed, the greater or lesser quality of the
national accounting system (which certainly was very
precarious in the first periods analyzed), the
macroeconomic sustainability in which the economy
operated, the financial conditions for growth, as well
as the social senstivity of growth.
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Comparison
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¶15. The article emphasizes the construction of a
ranking comparing the growth during the government of
Jurez Celman (which ended in a very serious crisis)
with that of Quintana (which developed into the most
dynamic years of Argentina in the world economy, in
the context of a strong penetration into the English
food market), and with the one of Yrigoyen (which
began at the close of World War I and coincided with
the reopening of international trade and the
continuance of the first import substitutions that
took place during the conflict). The article also
includes in the comparison the first years of
convertibility and the present period. The conclusion
of the economist from FIEL, as shown in the title of
his article, was that the present growth is good, but
it is less than the growth during the majority of the
other periods analyzed. From this, he concludes that
the current expansion was not the most important of
the last hundred years.
¶16. We cannot ignore that the purpose of Viglione's
article was to compare the first part of
convertibility with the economic performance of 2003-
¶2005. The comparative analysis adds little value in
terms of economic conclusions, and actually
contributes to the confusion. The article says very
little and it omits the fundamental point when it
talks of GDP growth rates without putting them in the
context of their distinct economic models. The first
three years of convertibility were those of
privatizations, the liquidation of the public equity
and the installation of the pillars of an economic
policy model that was unsustainable in the long term.
In those first years of convertibility, in spite of
the important GDP growth rates, the unemployment rate
also was growing, and reached 9.9 percent in 1993.
The model also included a fixed exchange rate, an
appreciated currency, and an economy without a state
presence and with concentrated and omnipresent
markets.
¶17. The present growth, however, is taking place in
the context of a consistent macroeconomic model, with
a solid external sector, sound public finances, a
decreasing unemployment rate and low interest rates
compatible with growth in investment.
¶18. The relevant discussion is to analyze economic
growth rates along with the qualitative concepts in
which the growth develops. The neo-liberal logic,
which adored the "stabilization at any price" of
convertibility and promoted the economic reforms of
the 1990s that led to the 2001 disaster, now tries to
downplay the consistency of economic policy and avoid
the debates that are needed.
¶19. In the article, the FIEL economist cannot stop
himself from including a note expressing his sadness
about GDP measured in dollars at the over-valued
exchange rate of convertibility. He also cannot help
but mention the growth of other Latin American
countries during the last few years to put Argentine
growth in perspective, even though growth rates in
Argentina were higher than those of all other
countries in the region.
¶20. There has to be a debate about relevant issues.
Today, those are analyzing, thinking and discussing
how to continue growing, about how to define and
strengthen a strategy for development, of the
characteristics of the reconstruction of the State and
its role in the economy, and of the redistribution
policy that aims to make sure that the benefits of
growth are enjoyed intensely by all sectors of
society. (Note: We reproduce selected articles by
local experts for the benefit of our readers. The
opinions expressed are those of the authors, not of
the Embassy. End Note.)
GUTIERREZ