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Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO276, CARDINAL HUMMES DISCUSSES LULA GOVERNMENT, THE OPPOSITION,
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06SAOPAULO276 | 2006-03-14 19:42 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo |
VZCZCXRO8600
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0276/01 0731942
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 141942Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4655
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 5815
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2762
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6898
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2091
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0200
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0915
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2442
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 1858
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1605
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2641
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0489
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2316
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000276
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
ROME PASS VATICAN
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, EUR/WE, AND DRL/IRF
STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
NSC FOR SCRONIN
DEPT OF TREASURY FOR FPARODI
USDOC FOR 332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWARD
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL ETRD ECON ELAB BR
SUBJECT: CARDINAL HUMMES DISCUSSES LULA GOVERNMENT, THE OPPOSITION,
AND FTAA
REF: (A) 05 SAO PAULO 405; (B) 05 SAO PAULO 402
(C) 02 BRASILIA 2670
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (U) During a March 10 courtesy call by Consul General, Claudio
Cardinal Hummes spoke at length of the successes and failures of the
Lula government; shared his views on the competition between Sao
Paulo Mayor Serra and Governor Alckmin for the presidential
nomination of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB); and
stressed that contrary to popular belief, the Catholic Church as an
institution does not oppose the Free Trade Area of the Americas
(FTAA) and in fact sees such agreements as necessary, but believes
that any agreement must be thoroughly discussed and equitable for
all parties. End Summary.
---------------------------------------
LULA GOVERNMENT:
ACCOMPLISHMENTS, BUT DISAPPOINTMENT TOO
---------------------------------------
¶2. (U) Consul General (CG), accompanied by Poloff, paid a courtesy
call March 10 on Dom Claudio Cardinal Hummes, Archbishop of Sao
Paulo and leader of the Catholic Church in Brazil. When queried on
his views on the current political scene, Hummes said Lula's
government has been an important milestone for Brazil: a democratic
government led by a worker, with major accomplishments to its credit
such as macro-economic stability, improvement of Brazil's
international image, and payment of the country's foreign debt.
Obviously, not all has been so positive. The Cardinal knew Lula
from the time when both were working in their respective fields in
the ABC (Santo Andre, Sao Bernardo dos Campos, Sao Caetano do Sul)
industrial suburbs south of Sao Paulo during the time of the
military dictatorship (see ref A for complete biographic
information), and he knew Lula wanted to do more on the social front
to improve conditions for workers and the poor. He knew for a fact
Lula was disappointed not to have created more jobs. "Bolsa
Familia" (which involves conditional transfer payments to the poor)
was a good program; it was true, as critics had pointed out, that it
didn't lift people out of poverty, but it was effective as an
emergency measure for the very needy. The fundamental problem,
Hummes said, was that Brazil hadn't grown enough. High interest
rates and high taxes had prevented it from keeping pace with other
emerging economies like China, India, and Mexico. If this could be
changed, Brazil would be ready to move forward.
¶3. (SBU) Then there was the corruption scandal. Lula didn't deserve
this, said Hummes. This was not to say that he really hadn't known
anything of what was going on, as he claimed. But Lula had been
badly served by people around him with their own agendas, especially
former Chief of Staff Jose Dirceu. That agenda was to maintain the
Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores - PT) in power, an
objective that required a great deal of money. To Dirceu, the ends
justified the means. Dirceu, who is a very rational, astute
political operator, wanted to be Lula's successor, and he used the
powers of government, including the more than 20,000 jobs to be
filled by presidential appointees ("unjustified in a democracy,"
Hummes said) to that end. Ironically, Dirceu's activities were
eventually exposed by Roberto Jefferson, (a federal deputy in a
government-allied party who was implicated in corruption and then
SAO PAULO 00000276 002 OF 003
began to implicate others, and was himself eventually expelled from
Congress), "who was himself not a hero of ethics."
¶4. (SBU) Hummes was not certain Lula would even stand for
re-election. "There's probably a 70 percent chance he will. He
personally opposes re-election and always has. He thinks it would
be much better to have a longer term, five or six years, but only
one term. I also think this would be much better for our
democracy." Hummes also opined that holding elections every two
years -- federal and state elections alternative with municipal -
was too disruptive and made it difficult for the government to
accomplish anything.
----
PSDB
----
¶5. (SBU) CG noted that Lula's recent resurgence in opinion polls
posed a serious challenge for the opposition PSDB. Cardinal Hummes
agreed, pointing out that there are many similarities between the PT
and the PSDB. "Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC) brought the PSDB
closer to the PT in many ways. And then Lula, when he came to
power, adopted some PSDB policies. They have to be in conflict with
each other for you to be able to see the differences." The party
had too many good candidates, Hummes said, an abundance of talent
that dates back to its founding. In 2002, the party had trouble
deciding on Jose Serra as its nominee; finally, FHC had to step in
and designate him. The Cardinal knows both PSDB presidential
pre-candidates and talks regularly with both. In his view, the
problem with a Serra candidacy is that if he runs and loses, the
PSDB will have lost the Mayorship of Sao Paulo, its great window on
national politics. Alckmin, though not as well known outside Sao
Paulo, could be a great national surprise. Hummes opined that
Alckmin could give Lula a better run for his money in the
impoverished northeast, since Alckmin would appeal more that Serra
to the lower classes. Even if he should lose to Lula, the PSDB
would then still hold the Mayorship of Sao Paulo. Thus, the
rational decision would be for Alckmin, but the Cardinal recognized
that politics isn't always rational. He noted also that Minas
Gerais Governor Aecio Neves had wanted to run this time, but decided
not to because he was a sure bet to be re-elected as Governor of
Minas but was less certain he could beat Lula.
¶6. (SBU) During a second term, Hummes predicted, Lula would be more
moderate than Serra would if elected. Lula was not much of an
adventurer and wouldn't take risks, the way great leaders and
governments do. Serra is by temperament much bolder, and has always
opposed the conventional "neo-liberal" macro-economic policy
implemented first by FHC and subsequently by Lula.
--------------------------
CHURCH DOES NOT OPPOSE FTAA
---------------------------
¶7. (SBU) CG raised the issue of the Free Trade Area of the Americas
(FTAA), noting that the U.S. remains interested in negotiating an
agreement even though the Lula government is still less than
enthusiastic, and inquired into the Church's position. The Cardinal
replied that there is no institutional opposition on the Church's
part to this type of agreement. The world is clearly becoming more
integrated, and nations can no longer afford to isolate themselves
or stand on nationalism. Brazil, for example, is a strong supporter
of Mercosul, but the community is very fragile, due in large part to
Argentine economic problems. The FTAA must overcome traditional
SAO PAULO 00000276 003 OF 003
beliefs that it is another vehicle for the U.S. to exploit Latin
American poverty. Many in the region are unable to believe that a
just agreement can be reached. Nevertheless, though it won't be
easy, it is necessary for the parties to keep trying. Hummes
expressed the view that President Lula is trying to help overcome
the "old thinking" wherein others, especially the United States,
were blamed for Brazil's problems. The Church as an institution, he
reiterated, has not opposed FTAA and would not do so. Individual
Brazilian bishops or groups of bishops might have, or NGOs
affiliated with the Church. Perhaps a study group presented
recommendations to the National Conference of Bishops of Brazil
(CNBB) opposing FTAA, and these might have been published and
characterized as an official Church position. But the CNBB itself
had never adopted a resolution against FTAA, and the Church does not
oppose free trade agreements in general or the FTAA in particular.
The Church, he said in conclusion, does consider it important that
any negotiated agreement be fully aired and discussed publicly, and
be fair to all the parties. CG replied that the USG is aware that
all such agreements must be acceptable to both (or all) sides,
because otherwise they will not be sustainable.
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COMMENT
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¶8. (SBU) Over the past six months, numerous Brazilian interlocutors
from both the government and the private sector have advised us that
the Church's opposition to an FTAA agreement was an important factor
in the negative public opinion that in turn influenced the GoB's
reluctance to move forward with negotiations. Ref C reported that
in July 2002 CNBB was spearheading a National Campaign Against the
FTAA, which, among other things, published a "scurrilous,
error-filled 42-page pamphlet attacking the proposal and vilifying
the 'imperialist' United States." Post is not in a position to
determine, so long after the fact, whether the campaign and pamphlet
were the work of the CNBB itself or of some of its more radical
members. In September 2002, the Social Pastorate of the Catholic
Church co-sponsored (along with the Movimento dos Trabalhadores
Rurais Sem Terra (MST), the PT, and some 30 other NGOs) an
unofficial anti-FTAA referendum. If the Cardinal's characterization
of the Brazilian Church's official position is accurate - and we do
not doubt his word or his knowledge of Church affairs - then that
official position has long since been drowned out in the public mind
by the vocal, negative views on FTAA of some priests, bishops, and
influential lay people. That said, the fact that the Church does
not in fact oppose an agreement may prove useful in the months
ahead. More generally, Hummes's insights into the current Brazilian
political scene are well-informed and lucid, and it is clear he is
following the situation closely and is in contact with all the major
players. End comment.
¶9. (U) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy Brasilia.
McMullen