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Viewing cable 06RANGOON394, RISING PRICES HIT BURMA'S POOR...AGAIN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06RANGOON394 2006-03-23 04:33 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Rangoon
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

230433Z Mar 06
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000394 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; EB/TPP 
TREASURY FOR OASIA:AJEWELL 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV BM
SUBJECT: RISING PRICES HIT BURMA'S POOR...AGAIN 
 
REF: RANGOON 312 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Rising prices in February again hit 
Burma's poor hard, with significant increases in the cost 
of basic foods, transportation, and fuel.  A slight, but 
unexpected, depreciation of the kyat increased the price of 
imported consumer goods.  Dry season power shortages 
increased, leading to higher fuel prices, and in turn, 
higher transportation and food prices.  The kyat should 
remain stable until late April when the foreign tourist 
season ends.  In the meantime, the poor face ever tougher 
struggles just to survive.  End summary. 
 
Food Prices Up 
-------------- 
2. (U) The prices of several consumer goods in Rangoon rose 
significantly in February, including garlic (up 40%), beans 
(17%), onions (12%), and fish (6%).  The price of rice, the 
staple food, increased 2.4% for fair quality (Emata) and 8% 
for good quality (Paw Hsan Hmwe) from January.  Sources 
said that December rains, unusual during the heart of dry 
season, damaged already-harvested paddies, decreasing 
supply and increasing prices (reftel).  On a recent visit 
to the Irrawaddy delta region, a prime producing area where 
rice is usually cheaper, contacts told us that rice prices 
rose 25-30% in recent months and predicted further 
increases. 
 
3. (SBU) Our business contacts speculated about other 
pressures on rice prices.  Some say authorities inflated 
the price to entice farmers to cultivate paddy rice instead 
of other profitable crops.  Others disagree, saying that 
rice is a "politically sensitive" crop and authorities do 
not want rising prices to foster instability.  Other 
contacts suspect that traders hoard rice until the price 
reaches a targeted selling level.  In the past, GOB 
officials have warned, and even detained, rice hoarders. 
 
Fuel Prices Up 
--------------- 
4. (U) Increased transportation costs contributed to higher 
food prices.  Black market prices increased 6-7% in 
February to $2.60 per gallon for gasoline and $2.87 per 
gallon for diesel, and public transportation charges 
increased 5-6% from January.  As the dry season continues, 
the output from the GOB's hydropower generators will drop 
until monsoons return in June/July.  Increased demand for 
fuel to run individual back-up generators also puts 
pressure on diesel prices.  Our contacts report that power 
cuts this year are more frequent and last longer than in 
the past.  Fuel prices are even higher outside Rangoon: the 
price of diesel in the Irrawaddy delta is 20% higher than 
in Rangoon. 
 
Inflation Climbs 
---------------- 
5. (SBU) The kyat's February depreciation also increased 
the prices of some imported consumer goods, such as 
condensed milk (up 14.5%) and margarine (11%).  The cost of 
the Embassy's basket of low-income sector goods rose 4% in 
February compared with January.  The decrease in chicken 
prices after the GOB announced an outbreak of Avian 
Influenza in Burma did not affect inflation significantly, 
since only middle-to high-income families in Burma can 
afford to buy chicken. 
 
6. (SBU) The total cost of goods in February 2006 increased 
23% for our low-income commodity basket compared with the 
same time period in 2005.  Wages have not kept pace with 
rising prices, and low-income workers, already squeezed, 
can only tighten their belts even further.  "We'll just 
have to eat less," said one contact.  The Embassy's 
informal estimate of the current annual inflation rate for 
all sectors is between 40% and 50%. 
 
The Rise and Fall of the Kyat 
----------------------------- 
7. (SBU) The kyat traditionally appreciates during peak 
tourist season, November to April.  This year, the kyat 
depreciated 4% at the end of February, against the trend. 
In February 2005, it appreciated 2.3%.  Moneychangers and 
businesspersons said increased demand for US dollars by 
unknown buyers caused the abrupt decline. 
 
8. (SBU) After its sudden fall, the kyat regained some 
value in the first week of March.  The unusual February 
depreciation and quick recovery lend credibility to 
speculation that the government purchased a large amount of 
dollars, causing the short-term dip.  The GOB needs dollars 
to import construction materials for the government 
entities and crony firms building Pyinmana.  The kyat 
traditionally maintains its strength through the Burmese 
New Year/Water Festival holidays in April, and then 
depreciates after the April holidays as tourism drops. 
 
9. (SBU)Comment: The mid-April New Year and Water 
Festival holidays offer a brief opportunity for Burmese to 
let loose for a few days.  They must then return to grim 
reality.  Fuel and food prices continue to rise as the 
economy sinks, although the return of the monsoon may ease 
the current power blackouts and reduce demand for diesel. 
With little prospect for economic reform from a government 
isolating itself from its own people, ordinary Burmese can 
do little but focus on their own survival.  End comment. 
Villarosa