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Viewing cable 06LIMA979, ELECTION UPDATE: HUMALA GAINS STRENGTH AS FLORES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA979 2006-03-13 21:59 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0027
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #0979/01 0722159
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 132159Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9143
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3106
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9161
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR QUITO 0116
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0283
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6568
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4137
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 000979 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE:  HUMALA GAINS STRENGTH AS FLORES 
CONTINUES HER STEADY DECLINE 
 
REF: LIMA 759 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
1.  (U)  The latest national poll by the Apoyo consultancy, 
taken 3/8-10, showed center-right Unidad Nacional candidate 
Lourdes Flores holding on to first place amongst the "valid 
votes," although her support fell two points to 31 percent; 
ultra-nationalist Union por el Peru (UPP) candidate Ollanta 
Humala threatening to pass her after advancing four points to 
30 percent, while APRA party candidate (and former President) 
Alan Garcia held steady at 22 percent.  Given that this poll 
does not/not reflect the views of 20 percent of the 
electorate living in isolated rural areas, who are more 
likely to vote for Humala or Garcia than for Flores, it is 
quite possible that Humala is in the lead, with Flores and 
Garcia in a close battle for the second run-off slot.  In the 
congressional race, APRA and Unidad Nacional remained in 
front, although both lost some support while UPP gained two 
points.  With 41 percent of those polled still somewhat 
uncertain who they will vote for (down from 58 percent two 
weeks ago), the race to qualify for the presidential run-off 
remains too close to call.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
THE LATEST POLL RESULTS 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  The Apoyo poll interviewed 2000 people in 79 
provinces around the country, representing 81 percent of the 
Peruvian population.  When asked which candidate they would 
vote for if the election were held that day, the response was: 
 
Lourdes Flores          31 percent (down two percent from two 
weeks earlier) 
Ollanta Humala          30 percent (up four percent) 
Alan Garcia             22 percent (unchanged) 
Valentin Paniagua        5 percent (down two percent) 
Martha Chavez            5 percent (up one percent) 
Others                   7 percent (down one percent) 
 
The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which 
excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name 
a candidate.  In the Apoyo poll, 74 percent of respondents 
provided "valid votes," which are the ballots that the 
election authorities will use to determine the final results. 
 Even these "valid votes" are not firm, as 41 percent of 
those polled said they were still uncertain who they will 
actually vote for (though this is down from 58 percent two 
weeks ago - Reftel).  In terms of the total vote (including 
blank ballots or refusals to respond), Flores fell from 24 to 
22.9 percent, Humala rose from 19 to 22.2 percent, while 
Garcia edged up from 16 to 16.3 percent.  (COMMENT:  It 
appears that the trend is for the former undecideds to choose 
Humala over the other two main candidates.  END COMMENT). 
 
 
3.  (U)  With none of the candidates in line to win a 
majority of the vote, the election will likely be decided by 
a second round run-off between the two candidates receiving 
the most votes in the first round.  According to the poll 
results, in a run-off Flores would defeat Humala by 54-46 
percent (down from 60-40 percent two weeks ago), and would 
defeat Garcia by 59-41 percent (down from 62-38 percent), 
while Humala would defeat Garcia 53-47 percent (two weeks ago 
they were tied). 
 
4.  (U)  In the congressional race, the Apoyo poll indicated 
that APRA and Unidad Nacional remain the top two 
vote-getters, though each lost support over the past two 
weeks, while UPP strengthened its hold on third place by 
gaining two points.  The Fujimorista Alliance for the Future 
picked-up three points, while Paniagua's Centrist Front fell 
one point and President Alejandro Toledo's Peru Posible party 
did the same, thereby falling to 3 percent, below the four 
percent minimum threshold for winning a congressional seat. 
The following table lists each party's support, while our 
 
calculations of the approximate proportional number of 
legislative slots that each party would take are in 
parenthesis: 
 
APRA                     23 percent (36 seats) 
Unidad Nacional          20 percent (31 seats) 
Union por el Peru        17 percent (27 seats) 
Alliance for the Future   9 percent (14 seats) 
Centrist Front            8 percent (12 seats) 
 
 
(NOTE:  The congressional races will be decided on a 
proportional basis in each of Peru's 25 electoral districts 
(the 24 departments and Callao, with metropolitan Lima 
grouped-in with Lima Department), rather than nationwide. 
Thus it is possible that the final distribution of seats will 
differ substantially from our rough calculations on a 
nationwide basis.  In addition, while the law provides for a 
four percent minimum threshold for a party to place a 
legislator in Congress, there is an exception for those 
parties who manage to elect at least five representatives in 
two or more electoral districts.  Consequently, it remains 
possible that a party with less than four percent of the 
national vote could obtain representation in Congress.  END 
NOTE). 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
5.  (SBU)  Continuing our horse-race comparison from the last 
election update (Reftel), the three front runners are 
entering the home stretch with Flores still in front but 
flagging, Humala commencing his kick and Garcia maintaining 
his pace.  If we factor in the likely preferences of the 
isolated rural vote, the result could well be Humala ahead 
and pulling away, with Flores and Garcia at most a length 
apart, the latter being in a more favorable position for the 
stretch run.  Flores is trying to re-energize her campaign 
with populist proposals (promising to create 650,000 jobs 
annually, provide health insurance for eight million people, 
vastly increase education spending, double police on the 
streets, support USD two billion in lending for 
micro-enterprises and USD one billion for farm lending), but 
these initiatives do not/not seem to be registering with the 
voters.  Her opponents have criticized her for making 
unrealistic commitments and suggested that this evidences 
Flores' desperation at her falling poll numbers (she has 
steadily dropped a point a week since her late-January high 
of 37 percent).  Meanwhile, Humala's campaign is 
concentrating on solidifying his base in the southern 
highlands and coast, while making inroads in the poor 
suburban belt around Lima.  Garcia is doing the same in Lima, 
while also focusing on reconstituting APRA's historical 
"solid north" in the northern coastal belt.  END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE