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Viewing cable 06LIMA1197, HUMALA EXPANDS LEAD, WHILE FLORES INCHES DOWN AND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA1197 2006-03-27 21:04 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1197/01 0862104
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 272104Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9436
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3162
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9223
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR QUITO 0161
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0333
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6605
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4162
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 001197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA EXPANDS LEAD, WHILE FLORES INCHES DOWN AND 
GARCIA INCHES UP 
 
REF: LIMA 1080 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
1.  (SBU)  Ultra-nationalist, "outsider," Union por el Peru 
(UPP) presidential candidate Ollanta Humala gained one 
percentage point over the past week (to 33 percent) in the 
latest Apoyo nationwide poll, performed 3/22-24, expanding 
his lead over center-right Unidad Nacional alliance candidate 
Lourdes Flores (who fell one point to 27 percent) from four 
to six points.  APRA party candidate (and former President) 
Alan Garcia gained one point to 22 percent.  Given that this 
poll does not/not reflect the views of approximately 20 
percent of the electorate living in isolated rural areas, who 
are more likely to vote for Humala or Garcia than for Flores, 
Humala's actual support is probably higher, while the race 
between Flores and Garcia for a spot in the second-round 
run-off is likely much tighter than the five point difference 
reported by Apoyo.  In the congressional race, APRA, Unidad 
Nacional,  UPP, the Fujimorista Alliance for the Future party 
and former President Valentin Paniagua's Centrist Front 
remained 1-5; President Toledo's Peru Posible party jumped 
two points, to six percent, safely above the four percent 
nationwide vote threshold to place candidates in Congress; 
the centrist Alliance for Progress fell below the threshold 
to three percent; and the Christian evangelical National 
Restoration party, which seems to be gaining strength in the 
presidential race as well, moved up to three percent and 
could well qualify for legislative representation.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
THE LATEST POLL RESULTS 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  The Apoyo poll interviewed 2000 registered voters in 
79 provinces around the country, representing 81 percent of 
the Peruvian population.  When asked which candidate they 
would vote for if the election were held that day, the 
response was: 
 
Ollanta Humala          33 percent (up one percent over last 
week - Reftel) 
Lourdes Flores          27 percent (down one percent) 
Alan Garcia             22 percent (up one percent) 
Martha Chavez            7 percent (no change) 
Valentin Paniagua        6 percent (no change) 
Others                   5 percent (down one percent) 
 
The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which 
excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name 
a candidate.  In the Apoyo poll, 82 percent of respondents 
provided "valid votes," which are the ballots that the 
election authorities will use to determine the final results. 
 This is down from 84 percent last week. 
 
3.  (U)  The Apoyo poll continues to predict that none of the 
candidates are likely to win a majority of the vote.  If this 
holds true on election day, there will be a second-round 
run-off between the two candidates receiving the most votes 
in the first round.  According to the poll results, in a 
run-off Flores would beat Humala 53-47 percent (last week's 
poll reported they would tie:  Apoyo's poll director Alfredo 
Torres explained that his firm's analysis indicates that, 
should Garcia not/not make the second-round, most APRA voters 
would side with Flores over Humala in a run-off.)  Apoyo also 
found that Flores and Humala would both beat Garcia, by 
margins of 57-43 and 52-48, respectively. 
 
4.  (U)  There was no change in the relative position of the 
alliances/parties in the congressional race, although several 
shifted a point or two.  APRA remained in front, while 
second-place Unidad Nacional's lead over UPP fell to one 
point.  The largest gain was posted by President Toledo's 
Peru Posible party, which increased its vote by 50 percent, 
from four to six points, safely exceeding the four percent 
threshold for winning a congressional seat.  The centrist 
 
Alliance for Progress party fell to three percent, dropping 
below the three percent mark, thereby imperiling its hopes 
for legislative representation.  The Christian evangelical 
National Restoration party moved up to three percent (its 
presidential candidate Humberto Lay Sun is now in sixth place 
in that race with two percent), and, could well place 
candidates in Congress if it can keep up the momentum.  The 
following table lists the support enjoyed by each 
alliance/party, while our calculations of the approximate 
proportional number of legislative slots that they would take 
are in parenthesis: 
 
APRA                     21 percent (32 seats) 
Unidad Nacional          17 percent (26 seats) 
Union por el Peru        16 percent (25 seats) 
Alliance for the Future  11 percent (17 seats) 
Centrist Front            7 percent (11 seats) 
Peru Posible              6 percent ( 9 seats) 
 
(NOTE:  The congressional races will be decided on a 
proportional basis in each of Peru's 25 electoral districts 
(the 24 departments and Callao, with metropolitan Lima 
grouped-in with Lima Department), rather than nationwide. 
Thus it is possible that the final distribution of seats will 
differ substantially from our rough calculations on a 
nationwide basis.  In addition, while the law provides for a 
four percent minimum threshold for a party to place a 
legislator in Congress, there is an exception for those 
parties who manage to elect at least five representatives in 
two or more electoral districts.  Consequently, it remains 
possible that a party with less than four percent of the 
national vote could obtain representation in Congress.  END 
NOTE). 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
5.  (SBU)  Humala keeps gaining support and widening his lead 
with less than two weeks to go to election day.  Flores 
continues her downward slide, falling one point over the past 
week, and the chances are increasing that she could be passed 
by Garcia (whose support inched up one point) in the race to 
reach the second-round run-off.  The Apoyo poll, which 
acknowledges that it only reflects 81 percent of the voting 
population, probably understates the effect of the isolated 
rural vote, which would add to Humala's numbers.  Garcia 
would also likely benefit once one factors in the rural vote, 
and the APRA leader historically has had a "hidden vote" not 
reflected in the polls.  One positive note for Flores is that 
her support in her stronghold of Lima went up four percent 
(from 34 to 38 percent), although her backing in the interior 
fell by three percent (24 to 21 percent). 
STRUBLE