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Viewing cable 06HANOI596, PARTY'S 14TH PLENUM TO OPEN SOON; LEADERSHIP

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06HANOI596 2006-03-15 08:51 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO9097
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0596 0740851
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150851Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1119
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 0709
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS HANOI 000596 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR VM
SUBJECT: PARTY'S 14TH PLENUM TO OPEN SOON; LEADERSHIP 
POSITIONS STILL UNCLEAR 
 
Ref: Hanoi 222 and previous 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  The Communist Party's Central Committee 
will begin its 14th plenum March 18.  What most likely will 
be the final gathering before the (still unscheduled) 10th 
Party Congress, this plenum will seek to address public 
commentary on the Party's draft Political Report and 
finalize senior personnel decisions.  It remains unclear who 
will assume what position, although the majority of 
observers give the nod to Standing DPM Nguyen Tan Dzung to 
become Prime Minister.  End Summary. 
 
14th Plenum To Open March 18 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Putting an end to speculation, the Communist Party 
of Vietnam's (CPV) Central Committee will meet on March 18 
for its 14th plenum prior to the Party's 10th Congress. 
According to Ngo Cuong, an aide to Central Committee member 
and Supreme People's Court Presiding Judge Nguyen Van Hien, 
the plenum will run for a week and will seek to address 
public commentary on the draft Political Report (septel) and 
nail down senior personnel decisions.  In case the Central 
Committee is unable to do this, there is precedent for 
recessing the plenum and scheduling its continuation 
immediately prior to the (still unscheduled) Party Congress. 
 
Leadership Positions Remain Up In The Air 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Following January's 13th Plenum, some pundits were 
predicting the final Central Committee meeting would be held 
in mid-February (reftel).  However, National Assembly 
Chairman and Politburo member Nguyen Van An's extended trip 
to South America impacted the plenum's scheduling (he will 
return to Hanoi shortly).  Furthermore, the word on the 
street is that the Party has had a difficult time reaching 
consensus on senior leadership positions, including the CPV 
General Secretary and State President.  In one plausible 
scenario, Standing Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung 
will assume the position of Prime Minister and Hanoi City 
Party Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will take over as Chairman 
of the National Assembly.  More shaky predictions and rumors 
involve who will take over as Party chief and President. 
HCMC Party Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet is mentioned as a 
possible candidate for either job, and current Party General 
Secretary Nong Duc Manh may stay in place or assume the 
 
SIPDIS 
presidency.  Or, it could be none of the above. 
 
MARINE