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Viewing cable 06CARACAS808, VENEZUELAN URBAN AND RURAL EXPROPRIATIONS CONTINUE
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06CARACAS808 | 2006-03-27 15:42 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Caracas |
VZCZCXRO3047
RR RUEHAO
DE RUEHCV #0808/01 0861542
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271542Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3757
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6201
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 1824
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1898
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 3381
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO 0692
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 0385
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0038
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 000808
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON PGOV VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN URBAN AND RURAL EXPROPRIATIONS CONTINUE
(PART 1 OF 2)
REF: A. CARACAS 00335
¶B. CARACAS 00330
This message is sensitive but unclassified, please treat
accordingly.
-------
Summary
-------
¶1. (SBU) On March 6, President Chavez signed a Presidential
Decree declaring a "housing emergency." The decree makes it
easier to import construction materials and allows for
further expropriations, stating only that they will occur
"without violation of the law." The BRV has fallen short of
promised housing construction goals (in 2004, it announced
120,000 homes would be built in 2005 - only 41,500 were
built), and a weakened construction sector has further
exacerbated the severe housing deficit. The government has
waged a public campaign to vilify the private construction
sector and is launching plans to urbanize de-populated areas
and enact real estate price controls. Over the last few
years, the BRV housing strategy of solely stimulating demand
has largely failed -- leaving a large housing deficit
impossible to cover with Venezuela's existing budget. The
BRV is looking toward other countries, such as Cuba, Iran,
and Uruguay, for imported materials and pre-built homes. The
disjointed and improvised BRV position on housing has at
times included expropriations at the municipal level and
declarations against expropriations at the Ministerial level.
(Septel updating rural expropriations). End summary.
---------------------------------------
Chavez Declares Urban Housing Emergency
---------------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) On March 6, Chavez signed a Presidential Decree
declaring a "housing emergency" in Venezuela - the third
emergency decree in less than six months (the Ministry of
Housing (MINVIH) issued one in Nov 2005, as did the Mayor of
Caracas, Juan Barreto, in January 2006.) The decree allows
for more construction material imports and further
expropriations of urban land, vaguely explaining that they
will take place "without violation of the existing
expropriation law." The decree familiarly cites "natural
climatological phenomena" (read: unusually heavy rains) over
the past years as the reason for the crisis.
--------------------------------------
BRV fails to deliver housing solutions
--------------------------------------
¶3. (SBU) The urban housing shortage in Venezuela is not new.
Though the BRV likes to blame the weather (in fairness,
mudslides have wrecked a significant number of homes), many
Venezuelans have been without adequate housing for over 25
years (Ref A). (Comment: blaming the weather is largely a
tactic to divert attention away from the BRV's failure to
deliver the homes it promised. End comment.) In 2004, the
BRV vowed to build 120,000 homes by the end of 2005 -- it
only built 41,500. The President of Venezuela's Construction
Chamber, Alvaro Sucre, told EconOff that the BRV's number of
"homes built" is inflated, as it counts remodeling and/or
significant repairs as "newly built." For 2006, MINVIH
promised to build 80,000 homes, though in his March 26 "Alo
Presidente" speech Chavez nearly doubled the number to
150,000.
--------------------------
An Ailing Construction Sector
--------------------------
¶4. (SBU) Negative growth in the construction sector has
intensified the housing crisis. According to the Venezuelan
Workers' Confederation (CTV), over 50 percent of this sector
is "paralyzed." In 1999, 2001 and 2003, the sector
contracted by 17, 8 and 29 percent, respectively, and only
saw minimal growth for 2000 and 2002 (4, 13 percent.) In
2004-2005 the sector bounced back, but not to pre-1999
levels, despite a strong correlation between oil windfall
revenue and construction booms in Venezuela in the past.
Import licenses are difficult to obtain, and prices for
CARACAS 00000808 002 OF 003
construction materials have nearly doubled thanks to
inflation and increased demand.
¶5. (SBU) The Minister of Housing, Luis Figueroa, is
finalizing details on a real estate price bracketing plan,
which would set minimum and maximum prices for the sale of
property in high-demand urban areas. The construction sector
opposes the price-fixing measure, as previous BRV pricing
blunders suggest the brackets will likely fail to cover a
steep rise in material costs and the February 2006 minimum
wage increase. According to Sucre, price bracketing will
only deter investment and boost black market transactions (as
happened with price controls in the past). Sucre mentioned
that existing construction companies would be helped by
public sector spending, but that new investment (in equipment
or development projects) was at a standstill due to fears of
expropriations and price controls.
¶6. (SBU) The BRV's strategy until now has focused on
catalyzing demand by providing grants and low-interest loans
to home buyers. Persons holding one of the approximately
2,600 "high risk area housing" certificates (for areas prone
to mudslide risk) issued from Nov 2005-Jan 2006 obtain USD
8,000 (average) grants for new homes from the National
Housing Council (CONAVI). For 2006, the Central Bank has
announced that banks must set aside 10 percent of their loans
for housing: 30 percent for home buyers and 70 percent for
the construction sector. According to Sucre, in the last
four years, 70 percent of housing construction has been
financed by the BRV, while 30 percent has been through
independent private sector funding.
-----------------------------
Other BRV Housing "Solutions"
-----------------------------
¶7. (SBU) Though Figueroa declared that BRV housing policy
would not be "directed at invasions or expropriations," on
February 24 Caracas Mayor Juan Barreto issued expropriation
decrees for 32 residential buildings (in addition to the 13
decreed in Jan 2006). Barreto also decreed the additional
expropriation of 63 single-owner residential buildings whose
tenants have rented the properties for over 10 years. His
justification for the expropriation was that the owners had
been able to recover their original investment many times
over and mandated that tenants would "negotiate" the property
sale directly with the landlords. Sucre told EconOff that
privately, the Minister of Housing disagreed with Barreto's
approach, and believes expropriations are counter-productive.
Sucre added that he speculated Barreto was getting the "ok"
from higher-ups.
¶8. (SBU) Urban expropriations aren't just residential -- on
February 12, Mayor Barreto expropriated a newly-constructed
marketplace pavilion for use by informal vendors. Shortly
thereafter, on March 6, the Tupamaros, a Chavista armed urban
group, gave an ultimatum to a supermarket owner to vacate his
store so that the facility could be used to set up a Mercal
(government-funded supermarket) for the "good of the
Venezuelan people." These residential and marketplace
expropriations have not prompted waves of squatters, as was
the case in January (see Ref A).
¶9. (SBU) On February 26, an official from Mayor Juan
Barreto's office declared that "in XXI century socialism,
housing is not a for-profit business." Interestingly, the
2005 Housing Law specifically called for the "substitution of
the traditional private sector," implying that the BRV would
now take on housing construction instead of private
developers. Experts agree that the BRV has neither the
managerial expertise nor the resources to replace the private
sector and address the nation's 1.68 million unit housing
deficit. (Note: on the optimistic assumption of a USD
35,000/unit investment, it would take USD 58.8 billion to
overcome the deficit -- an amount well beyond the BRV's
reach. Housing expenditures accounted for USD 2.4 billion in
the USD 40.5 billion 2006 national budget. End Note.)
¶10. (SBU) In February 2006, MINVIH announced "Plan Caracas,"
a strategy to urbanize de-populated areas in the capital.
The Plan identifies 380 hectares of available land for
construction of 17,565 homes at a cost of nearly USD 940
CARACAS 00000808 003 OF 003
million, with final home prices ranging from USD
35,000-55,000 (Note: After subsidies and low-interest loans,
this price range is feasible for middle-lower class
Venezuelans. End Note.) According to MINVIH, 40 percent of
the land identified in the plan is privately-owned, and the
BRV hopes to negotiate with owners before resorting to
expropriation (Note: for now, this doesn't include the golf
courses Barreto threatened to expropriate in January 2006.)
Figueroa also proposed taxing "idle properties" to nudge them
into the market. Separately, Chavez himself has recently
proposed allocating housing funds directly to the municipal
level community councils (Septel).
----------------------------------
Looking to Cuba, Iran, and Uruguay
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¶11. (SBU) The Housing Minister announced on March 16 that
the BRV would buy 1,500 metric tons of cement from Cuba, and
traveled there March 17 to oversee the first shipment. In
January 2006, the BRV announced plans to create a joint
cement company with Iran and in Feb 2006 signed a 10,000 unit
housing contract with them. Although Chavez announced that
there is a cement shortage, according to a prominent economic
contact, CEMEX Venezuela (a multinational cement company) is
exporting 70 percent of its production for a lower price than
it could sell it for in Venezuela in large part because they
are facing payment delays from local buyers. After President
Tavare Vasquez' official visit on March 14-15, Chavez also
agreed to purchase 12,000 pre-fabricated Uruguayan mobile
homes.
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Comment
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¶12. (SBU) Venezuela's housing deficit is huge - and closing
the gap would require expenditures larger than the central
government budget. Taking into account that even the most
simple housing complexes take 1-1.5 years to complete, no
amount of investment will deliver immediate results. The
housing problem remains a thorn in the BRV's side, and
blaming the private sector while pursuing a policy of direct
BRV investment (awarding contracts, soft loans, etc), and
selected expropriations has been the strategy so far.
However, internal disagreement (between the Minister of
Housing and the Mayor, for example) hints at a continuing
uncoordinated and improvised urban expropriation policy.
Even though expropriations and price controls deter
badly-needed investment in the sector, the populist rewards
of such policies are more important to Chavez than addressing
the root of the housing problem itself. So far, most
house-hunters blame private-sector "profiteers" for their
woes. End Comment.
BROWNFIELD