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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES595, MEDIA REACTION IRAN CHILE US-BOLIVIAN TIES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUENOSAIRES595 2006-03-14 16:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0019
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0595/01 0731618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141618Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3815
INFO RHMFIUU/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000595 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION IRAN CHILE US-BOLIVIAN TIES 
03/14/06 
 
 
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Key international stories today cover US President 
George W. Bush's alleged plan to destabilize Iran; the 
possible impact of a hypothetical pre-emptive attack 
against Iran; Argentine President Nestor Kirchner 
receiving Haitian president-elect Rene Garcia Preval, 
who thanked him for Argentina's participation in the 
UN peacekeeping force in Haiti; Chilean President- 
elect Michele Bachelet's inheritance and future; and 
Bolivian President Evo Morales' need for "avoiding 
unnecessary confrontations with the US." 
 
2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Bush's plan to destabilize Iran" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (03/14) "The Bush 
administration has launched a diplomatic, political 
and financial campaign during the last few months in 
order to wear down and, if possible, destabilize 
Iran's toughest political and religious leaders as 
part of its strategy to prevent the Iranian theocratic 
regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. 
 
"According to The Washington Post, the USG's plan 
consists of increasing international pressure on the 
UN Security Council, strengthening the US diplomatic 
presence in Iran's neighboring countries, and 
financing the Iranian opposition and civil society. 
 
 
"Just seven hours after this investigation was 
published, US President George W. Bush accused Iran of 
promoting terrorism. He sustained that Iran is 
contributing to destabilizing Iraq by providing 
insurgent troops with explosives that will enable them 
to attack the US troops deployed there since the 2003 
invasion and Iraqi civilians." 
 
- "The effects of a pre-emptive attack against Tehran" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading 
"Clarin," writes (03/14) "Gwynne Dyer, Canadian 
military historian, summarized what most analysts 
believe would be the unavoidable consequences of a pre- 
emptive attack against Iran from the US and/or Israel. 
 
"The list is impressive - he predicted an overall 
rebellion against the US intervention in Iraq led by a 
Shiite majority and a global economic crisis as a 
consequence of an abrupt interruption in the flow of 
Iranian oil to the market, which could bring the price 
to some 120 dollars. Dwyer does not believe, as others 
do, that Tehran will attempt to block the Ormuz 
Strait, which is strategic in the international oil 
route, because if it does, it would invite the US to 
militarily occupy its Northern border... 
 
"... The US high-ranking military often leak to the US 
media their restlessness every time Washington's 
rhetoric escalates on the Iran issue... Military 
sources have warned that today no one is sure about 
Iran's capability for manufacturing nuclear bombs... 
 
"... In this framework, does it make sense to embark 
on a new armed conflict when the Iranian bomb would 
not be made before George W. Bush leaves the White 
House for good? More than a few analysts agree that 
for Bush to embark on an armed conflict it is not 
necessary for Iran to have the bomb or be close to 
having it, but that the White House feels that Iran 
could disregard the US demand and escape any 
consequences whatsoever." 
 
- "Bachelet's inheritance" 
 
Rodrigo Orihuela, columnist of liberal, English- 
language "Buenos Aires Herald," comments (03/149 "... 
The main problem Lagos left for his former health and 
defense minister to solve is Chile's famed and once- 
admired privatized pension system, crudely imitated by 
Argentina as from 1994 and lauded by US President 
George W. Bush as recently as 2004. 
 
"Socialist doctor Bachelet placed the reform of the 
scheme at the core of her campaign platform, as did 
 
her rightist rivals. 
 
"... On the upside, Bachelet is handed an economy with 
growing exports and a positive balance of payments... 
 
"The auspicious Chilean balance of payments may well 
serve the cause of other Latin American leaders eager 
to strengthen ties with the US, such as Peru's 
Alejandro Toledo, who met with Bush in Washington the 
day before he went to Bachelet's inauguration. 
 
"... A debate could well center on why neither the 
model Latin American leftist administration nor the 
best-known rightist government in the region have 
worked towards building a strong industrial 
structure." 
 
3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Consensus for change in Bolivia" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (03/14) "During 
the last few years, a confrontation among Bolivia's 
political forces has added to the country's  serious 
economic and social problems, which made governments 
fall and made apparent the inability of its leaders to 
reach fundamental consensus... This chaos found a way 
out through the conclusive majority that brought Evo 
Morales to power... 
 
"As a matter of fact, the (Bolivian) Congress has just 
approved to call a Constituent Assembly and a 
referendum to make progress on autonomies... 
 
"... These are ways in which the country is seeking to 
reach consensus based on the acknowledgment of its 
multiple cultures, indigenous identity and diverse 
regional interests. Based on this new constitutional 
pact, Bolivia should find a production model that can 
improve the living conditions of its inhabitants and 
pave the way for political stability. This calls for 
encouraging both local and foreign investment and 
avoiding unnecessary confrontations with the US." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and 
opinions by the cited news media and do not 
necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views.  The 
Public Affairs Section does not independently verify 
information. The report is intended for internal U.S. 
Government use only. GUTIERREZ