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Viewing cable 06BOGOTA2028, URIBE'S ELECTORAL LEAD DECLINES IN LATEST POLL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BOGOTA2028 2006-03-07 17:33 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #2028 0661733
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071733Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2844
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 002028 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KJUS CO
SUBJECT: URIBE'S ELECTORAL LEAD DECLINES IN LATEST POLL 
 
REF: Bogota 898 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  A poll in daily El Tiempo revealed an 11 
percentage point decline in the intention to vote for 
President Uribe from December 2005 to February 2006.  The 
poll shows Uribe remains over 30 points ahead of closest 
rival Horacio Serpa from the Liberal Party, and that he 
would still win reelection in the May 28 first round 
election with 54 percent of the vote.  Negative indicators 
for the President included pessimism on the economy and a 
large spike in respondents favoring negotiation over 
combat with guerrilla groups.  As for Congressional 
elections on March 12, pro-Uribe parties still appear 
poised to hold a majority in the Senate, while the Liberal 
Party would win a sizeable plurality.  (The full poll can 
be reviewed, in Spanish, at eltiempo.terra.com.co.)  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (U) On March 5, leading national daily El Tiempo 
released a poll conducted during the February 8-20 period. 
Compared to late December 2005, intention to vote for 
President Uribe dropped from 65 to 54 percent.  The 
closest rival to Uribe, Liberal Party (PLC) aspirant 
Horacio Serpa, meanwhile, rose from 12 to 20 percent.  By 
comparison, a late January Semana magazine poll gave Uribe 
57 percent of the intended vote (reftel), while Serpa was 
below ten percent.  In a hypothetical second round 
Presidential runoff, Uribe would handily defeat any 
potential rival.  Even were undecided voters in each 
potential matchup to go against Uribe, the President wins 
in each scenario. 
 
3.  (U) Noteworthy responses came to questions regarding 
extradition, the economy, and dealing with guerrilla 
groups.  Support for granting extraditions to the U.S. 
fell three points, from 51 to 48 percent.  Employment (44 
percent) handily beat out dealing with illegal armed 
groups (15 percent) as the number one citizen concern. 
Only eight percent termed the economy good, while 58 and 
34 percent, respectively, felt it was regular or bad. 
Support for fighting guerrilla groups dropped from 37 to 
31 percent, while support for negotiating with guerrilla 
groups increased from 57 to 63 percent. 
 
4.  (U) The poll showed that the leading pro-Uribe parties 
would win a majority in March 12 Senate voting.  However, 
several pro-Uribe parties were on weak ground in terms of 
attaining the minimum vote threshold (umbral) required to 
actually be granted seats in the Senate.  The five top 
Senate vote getters would be: 
 
--Liberal (PLC):  33.2 percent 
--National Unity (U):  13.2 
--Radical Change (CR):  12.8 
--Conservative (PCC):  10.2 
--Democratic Pole (PDA):  6.7 
 
Numerous parties were just above or below the two percent 
mark. 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment:  The race remains Uribe's to lose, 
which is highly unlikely, given the huge distance between 
the President and any other potential rival.  While 
chances of a majority anti-Uribe Senate are slim, new 
electoral rules on vote threshold make predicting exact 
Senate numbers difficult.  The Liberals, however, have 
clearly sought to position themselves to hold a plurality 
in the next Congress.  WOOD