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Viewing cable 06ADDISABABA773, ETHIOPIA TOUR D'HORIZON: PM MELES SAYS CITY HALL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ADDISABABA773 2006-03-20 05:59 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Addis Ababa
VZCZCXRO4495
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #0773/01 0790559
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 200559Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9614
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000773 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/AS DR. FRAZER, DAS YAMAMOTO AND USAID AA PIERSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAID EFIN ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA TOUR D'HORIZON:  PM MELES SAYS CITY HALL 
STILL OPEN, GENOCIDE CHARGE TO BE DROPPED, DELAYED WORLD 
BANK PACKAGE NEEDED 
 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary and Action request: The Prime Minister 
appeared to enjoy the give and take of the conversation with 
the EU Troika (Austrian, Finish ambassadors and Pol Counselor 
for EC), French ambassador as head of the Ambassadors' Donor 
Group and U.S. Charge.  Meles was up-beat on the opposition 
forming the CUD/P party and even urged the donors to support 
the effort financially.  In another sign that constructive 
engagement is working, Meles said that the genocide charge 
and CUD detainees would be dropped, as would charges against 
some of those abroad.  Even when donor diplomats assured him 
that they would continue to push for the release of the CUD 
and civil society leaders, the PM remained relaxed, avoiding 
"guerrilla mode".  Meles agreed to give the elected City 
Counselors another month to obtain the minimum 69 verified 
signatures needed to take control of City Hall; 63 signatures 
had been verified thus far.  Meles is concerned by the 
possible damage to the economy caused by World Bank slowness 
in approving the $200 million "Protecting and Basic Services" 
program that will replace the Direct Budgetary Support funds 
provided by the Bank and the UK.  The French Ambassador 
assured Meles that after the recent Development Assistance 
Group (DAG) meeting in Paris there was consensus to move 
ahead with long-term donor engagement with Ethiopia. Action 
request:  Post recommends that Department principals 
encourage World Bank officials to move the PBS package to the 
approval stage.  Further large scale disturbances are 
unlikely, given the cost of the November riots and aftermath 
to the government's image and pocket book.  Moreover, the 
signs are positive that the government is committed to giving 
the opposition political space and the ability to re-register 
using its old identity as the CUD.  This will prepare the way 
for the opposition to be effective in City Hall, Parliament 
and eventually in local elections.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Profound Concern over Delayed World Bank Package 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2. (U)  President of the ADG French Ambassador Gompertz 
explained that the DAG meeting in Paris resulted in: 
 
-- Broad agreement from the donors to engage with Ethiopia on 
assistance because of its need and its record of high value 
for assistance dollars. 
 
-- Redirecting previous Direct Budgetary Support (DBS) 
through a new mechanism called "Protecting Basic Services" 
that involved disbursement at the local level;  the package 
needed to move ahead urgently. 
 
-- Renewed emphasis on a dialogue between the government and 
the donors on governance. 
 
3.  (U) Meles responded that he was profoundly concerned 
about the World Bank's delay in approving the PBS $200 
million plus loan.  He blamed the delay on donors who are not 
fully on board with continuing assistance to Ethiopia.  He 
said that as a leader of a liberation movement, he had to 
look at tactics.  In his view the EU Commission (EC), despite 
indicating that it was prepared to assist Ethiopia, might be 
joining the others to delay the talks.  Since Ethiopia was 
the junior partner, Meles said, it would be better to cut its 
losses now rather than trying to get all the donors on 
board.  Ambassadors assured Meles that Paris had led to a 
change in attitude because the donors recognized the need to 
stay engaged.  Meles said he feared that the EC agenda was a) 
carrot and stick, not a partnership; b) release of the CUD 
detainees; and c) governance in the form of micro-management 
or a shadow government.  This approach prevented 
predictability and catered to those who wished to move slowly 
on commitment of assistance in order to punish Ethiopia. 
 
4.  (SBU) The donors who provided DBS had agreed in their 
previous dialogues that Ethiopia was doing a good job in 
using these funds, Meles pointed out.  Ethiopia's pro-poor 
results, according to Meles, returned 1.3% on every dollar - 
an unusually high return.  Yet, donors continued to apply 
higher standards to Ethiopia.   The World Bank was supposed 
to be non-political, but it was using political criteria in 
the case of Ethiopia.  He would like to move forward with the 
World Bank while Ethiopia continues to resolve its problems 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000773  002 OF 003 
 
 
with the EC.  Meles said he was especially appreciative of 
British and American continued assistance and partnership. 
Finally, the PM agreed would continue its governance dialogue 
with the DAG in good faith.  Comment and Action Request: Post 
recommends that Department Principals engage World Bank 
officials to convey the view that Ethiopia is moving ahead on 
recreating an environment conducive to political pluralism 
and improved governance. This progress reduces the 
possibility of internal confrontation other than sporadic 
disturbances related to the trial of the CUD leaders.  With a 
severe drought in the south and high oil prices resulting in 
a rising cost of living, World Bank and other donor resources 
are critical to preventing a deterioration in economic 
conditions and to keeping the GOE on its present, positive 
course. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Another Month for CUDP to Take Over Addis Ababa 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  (SBU) Charge Huddleston laid out the case for allowing 
the opposition more time to collect the 69 signatures of 
elected City counselors so that they can take over the 
management of Addis Ababa.  Of the 70 who had signed the 
petition circulated by the City Council Organizing Committee 
in February and March, only 63 could be verified, as some 
signatures were invalid and other elected council members had 
not shown up to verify their signatures.  Unfortunately, the 
campaign of the Diaspora (with financial resources and 
threats) had hampered Ayele Chamiso's organizing efforts.  It 
had become increasingly clear that the re-establishment the 
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUD/P) would be 
critical to collecting sufficient signatures, and more 
importantly, gaining the backing of the citizens of Addis. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Meles responded that he would present the 
situation to the Parliament the week of March 20th.  He would 
recommend that Parliament allow the City Counselors another 
month to collect the needed signatures.  This would also 
allow them sufficient time to form the new CUD/P.  If the 
organizers failed in their effort, an alternative solution 
for running Addis would be presented to the Parliament at 
that time.  In reply to a question about the NEB's recent 
rejection of an application to recreate the September 2005 
CUDP merger, Meles said the NEB denied the request because 
neither the constituent parties (e.g. Rainbow, AEUP and EDL) 
nor the CUD/P had met the legal requirement of holding 
General Assemblies and presenting the needed documentation. 
Meles said he does not want the CUD/P to be reconstituted as 
attempted in September 2005 because he fears it would be 
controlled or influenced by the detained CUD leaders.  He is 
comfortable, however, with a newly formed CUD/P.  He even 
suggested that donors offer small-scale funding to support 
those seeking to register the CUPD. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
Genocide and Some Charges Against those Abroad to be Dropped 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
7.  (SBU)  Ambassador Gompertz asked the PM if thought had 
been given to throwing out the genocide or high treason 
charges against CUD detainees. Meles replied that there was 
no chance at all for the high treason charge being dropped. 
Although donors had "already judged us to be guilty", Meles 
said, "you will discover that the CUD leaders like Berhanu 
are guilty.  We have, as I told you in front of Berhanu, a 
video of Berhanu calling for treasonous acts."  (Comment: 
During the referenced meeting several months ago, Meles told 
Berhanu that he had proof that he had contemplated 
overthrowing the government.  Berhanu said that although 
someone at a rally had called for storming the palace, it had 
not been him.  Meles replied that nevertheless, Berhanu had 
not contradicted the suggestion.)   Meles then acknowledged 
that there had been no genocide committed in Ethiopia.  He 
had thought that the charge filed was "attempted genocide," 
but had recently discovered that prosecutors had indeed 
alleged genocide because there is no such charge as 
"attempted genocide" in Ethiopian law.  Therefore, Meles 
concluded, the charge of genocide will be dropped.  (Note: 
Dropping the genocide large still leaves detainees ineligible 
for bail.  End note.) 
 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000773  003 OF 003 
 
 
8.   (SBU)  Meles said that, in his view, most of those 
charged would be found guilty; however, because using some 
information in a court of law would compromise "sources and 
methods," charges against those abroad might be dropped. 
(Comment: Meles may have been referring to VOA employees 
charged with the CUD group.  End comment.)  Finally, Meles 
added that the prosecution should begin presenting evidence 
after the session scheduled for April 22; the trial might 
then run for two to three months. 
HUDDLESTON