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Viewing cable 06TOKYO820, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/15/06
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06TOKYO820 | 2006-02-15 08:29 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Tokyo |
VZCZCXRO7634
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0820/01 0460829
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 150829Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8668
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7262
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 4621
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 7698
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 4699
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5822
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0603
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6796
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8867
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 000820
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/15/06
INDEX:
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi
race, Yasukuni Shrine
(2) Will major US dailies' criticism become impediment to Foreign
Minister Aso's candidacy for LDP presidential race?
(3) Both Abe, Aso say Class-A war criminals "not criminals under
domestic law" in response to questions from Minshuto (Democratic
Party of Japan)
(4) Abe: No one was judged guilty for crimes against humanity
(5) Confusion reigns over administrative reform promotion
legislation; Efforts to upgrade Defense Agency to ministry
status, revise Imperial Household Law have failed; Moves to
oppose specifics of bill seen at Kasumigaseki; Koizumi
administration losing power base
(6) Fate of ongoing talks on USFJ realignment unpredictable; Lack
of progress and local coordination deadlocked
(7) Japan caught in the crossfire between US and Iran over Iran's
resumption of uranium enrichment
(8) Energy diplomacy: Government facing policy dilemma due to
nuclear development, history and territory issues
ARTICLES:
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi
race, Yasukuni Shrine
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
February 14, 2006
Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of a
survey conducted in January.)
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet?
Yes 53.5 (56.1)
No 36.2 (35.8)
Other answers (O/A) 2.9 (2.4)
No answer (N/A) 7.5 (5.8)
Q: Which political party do you support?
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 39.3 (40.9)
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 13.3 (12.6)
New Komeito (NK) 3.1 (3.5)
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 1.4 (2.3)
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.5 (1.6)
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.1 (0.2)
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1 (---)
Other political parties --- (0.1)
None 40.2 (38.1)
N/A 0.9 (0.9)
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has clarified that he would step down
when his term as LDP president expires in September this year.
TOKYO 00000820 002 OF 011
Pick only one from among the following nine persons if there is
anyone who you think is appropriate as the next prime minister.
Taro Aso 5.6
Shinzo Abe 42.9
Koichi Kato 2.9
Yuriko Koike 1.9
Heizo Takenaka 2.2
Sadakazu Tanigaki 2.1
Fukushiro Nukaga ---
Yasuo Fukuda 9.6
Taku Yamasaki 0.4
Others, none, N/A 32.4
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has annually visited Yasukuni Shrine.
Would you like the next prime minister to visit the shrine?
Yes 28.3
Yes to a certain degree 21.9
No to a certain degree 19.2
No 24.0
N/A 6.6
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has pushed for his market-oriented
restructuring initiatives for a small government in order to
minimize the government's public protection and services while
lessening the public burden. Do you think the next prime minister
should take over this policy course as is, or do you think the
next prime minister should revise and take it over, or do you
otherwise think there is no need to take it over?
Take it over as is 25.6
Revise and take it over 48.8
No need to take it over 18.2
N/A 7.5
Polling methodology
Date of survey: Feb. 11-12.
Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all eligible
voters throughout the country (at 250 locations on a stratified
two-stage random sampling basis).
Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to-face
interviews.
Number of valid respondents: 1,784 persons (59.5%).
Breakdown of respondents: Male-48%, female-52%.
(2) Will major US dailies' criticism become impediment to Foreign
Minister Aso's candidacy for LDP presidential race?
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
February 15, 2006
The New York Times and other US dailies have blasted Foreign
Minister Taro Aso for his remarks about China. If he loses his
reputation as a politician in the United States, it might have an
adverse impact on his candidacy to become the next Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) president in the upcoming election to
choose a successor to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
The New York Times carried on Feb. 13 an editorial headlined
"Aggressive Japanese foreign minister," in which the daily wrote:
"Mr. Aso's sense of diplomacy is as odd as his sense of history.
He has been neither honest nor wise in his remarks." The Boston
TOKYO 00000820 003 OF 011
Globe criticized Aso in an article on Feb. 8, "Right-wingers like
Mr. Aso have been indulging in undiplomatic words and actions."
Aso, who is known as a straight-talker, has been criticized often
by China since assuming his current post for his remarks on
visits to Yasukuni Shrine by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. In
order to win the LDP presidential race, which will pick a
successor to Koizumi, Aso, belonging to a small faction in the
LDP, has no choice but to wait for Koizumi to resign. To that
end, he has made it clear he would take over Koizumi's foreign
policy of being unyielding to China's pressure. He has kept a
tough stance against China, paying no attention to its criticism.
However, support of the United States, Japan's ally, is
indispensable for a successor to Koizumi. Having communication
channels to key US government officials is a selling point of
Aso. If he gains a bad reputation in the US and there is
questioning of his qualifications to assume the prime minister
post, it might be detrimental to him, forcing him to drop out of
the presidential race.
At a press conference yesterday, Aso stated, "Since it is free to
criticize someone, I do not make any comment." Aso's aides are
desperate to put the matter to rest, with one aide saying, "He
has no intention of stirring up controversy with Chinese
matters." However, the adverse effects of his "inflammatory
remarks" remain unknown.
Post-Koizumi contenders state Yasukuni issue will affect foreign
policy
At a House of Representatives Budget Committee session yesterday,
candidate for the post of prime minister after Koizumi Chief
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, and
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki strongly reacted to a question
about whether Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine have derailed
Japan's Asia diplomacy.
Katsuya Okada, a former president of the main opposition party
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), posed a question: "If the
next prime minister visits Yasukuni Shrine, chances are that the
present situation will continue. How would you conduct Asia
diplomacy?"
Abe responded: "India has created a boom in business circles
because Prime Minister Koizumi visited the country last year.
Paying attention to China alone is meaningless from a strategic
point of view."
Aso categorically said: "Summit meetings between the prime
minister and the Chinese leader and between the prime minister
and the South Korean president have been suspended, but many good
collaborations have been carried out in the economic and music
industry areas."
Okada grilled Abe and Aso on their views of history, Abe avoided
making a clear answer, responding, "(Evaluation) should be left
to historians."
At the ongoing Diet session, all eyes are now being focused on
post-Koizumi contenders' replies. But there have no scenes yet in
which the possible successors were able to display their
individual characteristics.
TOKYO 00000820 004 OF 011
(3) Both Abe, Aso say Class-A war criminals "not criminals under
domestic law" in response to questions from Minshuto (Democratic
Party of Japan)
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full)
February 15, 2006
Was the war one of self-defense? Who were responsible for the
war? These questions were raised in the Lower House Budget
Committee meeting yesterday. The questioner was Katsuya Okada,
former president of Minshuto and the answerers were Chief Cabinet
Secretary Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Aso, both viewed
SIPDIS
as post-Koizumi candidates. Taking the floor, Okada posed a
question about the validity of the International Military
Tribunal for the Far East (Tokyo War Crimes Trials) that found
the so-called "Class-A war criminals" to be "war criminals." But
Aso and Abe took the same position that Class-A war criminals
under Japanese domestic law were not identified as "criminals."
Okada queried Aso about WWII: "There is an argument that the war
was unavoidable for survival and self-defense, but what do you
think?" Referring to the so-called Murayama statement released in
1995 and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's speech in April 2005,
Aso rejected that argument, saying: "I've never stated it was a
war for self-defense."
But once the validity of Tokyo Trials and Class-A war criminals
were questioned,, debate heated up. Abe and Aso remarked, "Class-
A war-criminals were not necessarily brought to justice." Okada
argued against them: "Tokyo Trials' verdict was put above
domestic law or is a higher concept." The difference in the basic
perception of history was thus revealed as Abe and Aso cast
doubts on the validity of Tokyo Trials in light of international
law.
On Class-A war criminals, Aso pointed out that former Foreign
Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu had been a Class-A war criminal but
after the war he was awarded the first class medal. Abe as well
explained that Class-A war criminals and other criminals had been
released in line with a Diet resolution after negotiations with
the Allies and receiving overwhelming public support. But he
failed to convince Okada.
Okada also insisted, "Japan accepted the decisions by the Tokyo
Trials. So, it is only natural that Japan is bound by them."
Giving a sign in responding to Okada, Abe said: "Judging from
your way of speaking, Mr. Okada, you appear to be siding with GHQ
or something like that."
(4) Abe: No one was judged guilty for crimes against humanity
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full)
February 15, 2006
At a Lower House Budget Committee session yesterday, Chief
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, Foreign Minister Taro Aso and
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who are all viewed as post-
Koizumi candidates, faced "a litmus test" given by Katsuya Okada,
former president of the main opposition Minshuto (Democratic
Party of Japan). But the questions fired at Tanigaki were scarce.
The following are main points of the replies given by Foreign
TOKYO 00000820 005 OF 011
Minister Aso and Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe:
Was the war one of self-defense?
Aso: "Even if we decide today that the war was one of self-
defense, it's quite difficult to prove that. It's an undeniable
fact that the war in part was a war of aggression. This will be
judged by history down the road."
Abe: "History is found in the sequence of events. What parts of
the war do we deal with and how? The government should not play
the role of judge over history."
Tokyo Trials
Aso: "The defendants were found guilty for committing crimes
against peace. Article 11 of the San Francisco Peace Treaty
accepted the decisions by the Tokyo Tribunal. That's all that I
can say."
Abe: "The Nazis were found guilty for crimes against humanity,
but in the Tokyo War Crimes Trials, no one was decided guilty
(for similar crimes). I'm not in a position to raise objections
(on behalf of the government) to the trials, but the trials were
no more and no less than that."
Were Class-A criminals "war criminals"?
Aso: "The international military tribunal used the phrase 'war
criminals' to identify those Japanese who were tried. Those
Japanese would not be subject to criminal prosecution at least by
Japan's domestic law."
Abe: "The Tokyo War Crimes Trials were conducted by the Allies.
Seven defendants were sentenced to death. Our country never tried
those individuals on its own. If you ask they were criminals in
Japan? I would say no, they were not."
(5) Confusion reigns over administrative reform promotion
legislation; Efforts to upgrade Defense Agency to ministry
status, revise Imperial Household Law have failed; Moves to
oppose specifics of bill seen at Kasumigaseki; Koizumi
administration losing power base
ASAHI (Page 4) (Excerpts)
February 15, 2006
One target of an administrative reform promotion bill is to
achieve a net reduction in the fixed number of national
government employees by more than 5% by fiscal 2010. Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) Policy Research Council Chairman Hidenao
Nakagawa and Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe have taken the lead for
the submission of the legislation, calling it a bill that will
bring about a small government advocated by Prime Minister
Koizumi.
However, there seems to be something wrong about the fate of the
bill. At an informal cabinet meeting on Feb. 10, Justice Minister
Sugiura objected to a proposal for a cutback in the number of
prison officers, noting, "It is impossible to reduce such
personnel." It was shortly after Prime Minister Koizumi cautioned
all cabinet ministers to act in unity in dealing with the issue
TOKYO 00000820 006 OF 011
in order to address a call from the public to continue reform
efforts. In the end, it was decided that prison officers would
not be included in the list of public servants subject to
reductions to be incorporated in the bill. There are 15 key areas
subject to reductions of the total personnel cost. The prison
administration facility-related area is one of those 15 areas. A
large portion of public servants in this field are involved in
duties of prison officers. The fixed number of officials for this
area is approximately 17,000. Some have pointed out that if those
involved in prison officers' duties are exempt from the cutback
policy, only about 2,000 officials will become subject to the
proposed reduction, as a senior official at the Secretariat of
the Cabinet Office noted.
Principles will be gradually chipped away, if opposition to even
one proposal is accepted
"Principles will be gradually chipped away, if opposition to even
one proposal is accepted" has been the cardinal rule since the
administrative reform policy of Prime Minister Nakasone (early
1980s). But now this rule has been broken so easily.
It had never been the case up until last year. Looking back on
the cabinet meeting last year, one senior Cabinet Secretariat
official noted, "We were crestfallen since there was unexpectedly
no major resistance from government agencies at the stage of the
cabinet decision." The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy
(CEFP) last November adopted basic guidelines, and key guidelines
for administrative reform were adopted at a cabinet meeting late
last December, based on the basic guidelines. No major opposition
came from Kasumigaseki, Japan's bureaucratic center, either.
Prime Minister Koizumi won a landslide victory in last year's
general election, which asked voters whether or not they
supported postal privatization. Koizumi followed through on the
trinity of reforms and the integration or abolition of public
financial institutions.
What is the background of contained objection being unleashed? A
senior official at the administrative reform promotion office
said, "Amid the Koizumi administration losing steam, the lack of
coordination of views since last year has now been exposed."
Government offices had been discontent with the Koizumi
administration, pressed to transfer various services under their
jurisdiction to the private sector or cut the volume of services
for which they were responsible. However, they had stayed on the
sidelines because of the overwhelming victory in the general
election by Koizumi, as a senior official of the administrative
office put it. However, since the beginning of this year, the
Koizumi administration have been frequently on the offensive due
to the Livedoor incident and the US beef import issue.
Unity of cabinet ministers holds the key
The government will compile a plan to allocate targets for a new
reduction in the fixed number of national government employees.
This process will take place concurrently with deliberations on
the administrative reform promotion bill. A senior Cabinet
Secretariat official said, "To what extent cabinet ministers can
SIPDIS
fall in step by the submission of the bill will hold the key."
Objections have also been raised on other key areas as well. A
TOKYO 00000820 007 OF 011
New Komeito source is concerned: "An effort to upgrade the
Defense Agency to a ministry status has failed; a move to revise
the Imperial Household Law has been dampened; an effort to
present a national referendum bill to revise the Constitution has
also fallen through. If this situation continues, (the Koizumi
administration) will find itself up in the air after passage of
the budget bill." An aide to the prime minister also said, "The
Diet session will become calm with no controversial issues on the
table. Once the budget bill secures Diet approval, an LDP
presidential race mode will prevail."
Asked about the possibility of the administrative reform
promotion bill being watered down, Prime Minister Koizumi
yesterday at the Prime Minister's Office reacted in a bad mood,
"People always criticize that bills are watered down, so if this
bill is watered-down, resistance will suddenly drop. You will see
from the result."
(6) Fate of ongoing talks on USFJ realignment unpredictable; Lack
of progress and local coordination deadlocked
ASAHI (Page 4) (Excerpts)
February 14, 2006
By Masahiro Tsuruoka
The Japanese and US governments have engaged in talks on the
realignment of US forces in Japan (USFJ), aiming to reach a final
agreement before the end of March. But the fate of the talks is
becoming increasingly unpredictable. One reason is a lack of
progress in the recent senior-working level talks that continued
until Feb. 11. Another is slow coordination with base-hosting
municipalities, such as Nago City in Okinawa Prefecture.
US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Lawless: "We have more
issues than expected left to be resolved. Speed is important."
Defense Agency (JDA) Director-General Nukaga: "It is widely known
that both of us will reach an agreement on the realignment plans
by the end of March. If we fail, that would have an adverse
effect on Japan-US relations. We need to resolve various issues
within February."
Shared by Lawless and Nukaga in their meeting on Feb. 10 was a
sense of crisis that it was becoming increasingly difficult to
meet the end-of-March deadline for a final agreement.
A sense of disappointment at the results of the recent senior
working-level talks on the USFJ realignment prevails in the
government. "We had thought that the talks would produce a
certain degree of results, which would give a boost to local
coordination. But given that the Japan-US talks themselves have
stalled, it seems impossible a final report in March can be
readied," a responsible official pointed out.
Many in the government predict that after ironing out
differences, Japan and the US will reach agreement but that it
would not come before the end of March. The reason is that it is
not an easy task to bridge the gap between Japan, which seeks
burden reduction, and the US, which emphasizes the maintenance of
deterrent capabilities.
In addition to these factors, the fate of new legislation that is
TOKYO 00000820 008 OF 011
necessary for Japan to pay a portion of the costs of transferring
some 6,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam is unpredictable, too.
The JDA sees a growing call for enactment during the current Diet
session while Prime Minister is in office as president of the
Liberal Democratic Party, but coordination with base-hosting
municipalities has been stalled.
In the recent mayoral election in Nago City - the planned
relocation site for the US Futenma Air Station - in Okinawa
Prefecture, Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, backed by the ruling parties,
was elected as mayor. Nukaga was quick to indicate his intention
to establish a consultative council for liaison between the
central and local governments. But Shimabukuro has taken the
stand of not meeting with central government officials unless
revision is first made to the Henoko Cape plan the Japanese and
US governments agreed on.
In Iwakuni City housing the US Marine Corps' Iwakuni Air Station
in Yamaguchi Prefecture, a referendum on the planned transfer of
a carrier-borne aircraft unit from the Atsugi Naval Air Station
to the Iwakuni base is slated for March 12. Other base-hosting
municipalities are keeping a close watch on Nago City. Prime
Minister Koizumi pointed out at a Lower House Budget Committee
meeting on Feb. 8 that the situation was severe, saying: "(Local
residents) are unwilling to give approval."
Delay in DFAA's coordination due to recent revelation of its
involved-bid-rigging scandal
The Defense Facilities Administration Agency (DFAA)-involved bid-
rigging scandal has also clouded the talks on the USFG
realignment. The government and the ruling coalition once aimed
to submit to the current Diet session a bill to upgrade the JDA
to ministry status and enact it into law but this plan is likely
to be postponed due to the scandal.
"The bid-rigging scandal and the upgrading of the JDA are two
different matters, but there seems to be some impact of the
scandal on the upgrading issue," Koizumi told reporters
yesterday, admitting that the scandal is adversely affecting the
plan for the submission of the bill.
Last December, Koizumi indicated his positive attitude about
upgrading the JDA to a ministry, noting: "It's strange to keep it
in the status of being an agency." But the government's position
is that "the submission of the bill to upgrade the JDA to
ministry status would be discussed if the ruling parties
concurred on upgrading the agency to ministry status," according
to Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe. The submission of the bill is
premised on accord between the LDP and the New Komeito. But this
premise is being eroded due to the recent bid-rigging scandal.
New Komeito Secretary General Tetsuzo Fuyushiba remarked on Feb.
12: "It's difficult to discuss the issue in a cool-headed manner
amid the raging flames of criticism due to the scandal."
Foreign Minister Aso expressed concern that the bid-rigging
scandal "would further delay DFAA's response (to the USFJ
realignment plans)." Administrative Vice Defense Minister
Takemasa Moriya as well was forced to mention the USFJ
realignment talks and an investigation into the bid-rigging
scandal as his agency's immediate tasks to address.
(7) Japan caught in the crossfire between US and Iran over Iran's
TOKYO 00000820 009 OF 011
resumption of uranium enrichment
SANKEI (Page 5) (Slightly abridged)
February 15, 2006
Following the revelation of Iran's resumption uranium enrichment,
the Japanese government decided yesterday to urge Tehran to
suspend its nuclear program. Crude oil from Iran has played a key
role in Japan's energy strategy. Given this, Japan cannot easily
echo calls from the US and other countries for slapping economic
sanctions on the nation. But Japan will unavoidably be pressed to
make a clear-cut response in the face of North Korea's nuclear
threat. The government now finds itself caught in the crossfire
between Iran as an important oil supplier and the US as its ally.
In reference to Iran's enrichment resumption, Chief Cabinet
Secretary Shinzo Abe indicated a willingness to play a mediating
SIPDIS
role between the US and Iran, saying in a press briefing
yesterday:
"Because Japan has maintained friendly ties with Iran, we will
try to persuade its government to respond to our call so that it
will not find itself isolated in the international community. It
is only Japan that can address Western countries' concerns to
Iran."
The Foreign Ministry plans to invite Iranian Foreign Minister
Motaki to Japan beginning Feb. 27, and Foreign Minister Taro Aso
and other officials will call on Iran to dismantle its nuclear
development program. However, Motaki told Aso in a telephone
conversation on Jan. 18: "Our program is not intended to develop
nuclear fuel but is for research and development." As seen from
this, the possibility is slim that Iran will positively respond
to Japan's request. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
decided early this month to refer Iran to the United Nations
Security Council (UNSC). It is certain that in UNSC
deliberations, the US and other countries will become more vocal
in their call for economic sanctions against Iran.
The US is nervous about the Iranian nuclear issue, reflecting its
stance of placing emphasis on ensuring the security of Israel, a
country with which Iran is hostile. But Japan has to be cautious
about imposing economic sanctions on Iran.
Japan imports 15% of its crude oil from Iran. Japan once held 75%
of all concession rights for the Azadegan oil field -- the
largest field in the Middle East in terms of estimated reserves.
Given this, the following view is dominant in the government,
according to a senior official of the Ministry of Economy, Trade,
and Industry: "Should the international community impose economic
sanctions, Iran will certainly launch an oil embargo in
retaliation." A senior official of the Foreign Ministry said:
"Such a measure will deal an unfathomably serious blow to Japan,
although European countries will not be significantly affected."
Some observers predict that if Japan works with the US, Iran may
pull Japan's exploitation rights in the Azadegan field and
transfer them to China, which has been eager to deepen ties with
Iran in order to secure natural resources.
When Iranian students and others took over the US Embassy in
Teheran in 1979, the US called on Western countries to ban the
import of oil from Iran. On that occasion, some Japanese firms
TOKYO 00000820 010 OF 011
purchased large quantities of crude oil from Iran at high prices,
evoking a fierce reaction from the US government and Congress.
Regarding Iran's resumption of uranium enrichment, Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi only said, "It is still unknown whether it is
true or not, isn't it?" In the event that the US calls on Japan
to join in economic sanctions against Iran, Tokyo will find it
difficult to refuse. A government source was also overheard
saying: "North Korea has been developing nuclear weapons and
constitutes a threat to Japan's national security. Given this
situation, a misstep by Japan could create uncertainty over
relations with the US and the nation's security."
In a House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting yesterday,
Foreign Minister Aso indicated that the ministry would make its
utmost efforts to bring a "soft landing" to the Iranian nuclear
issue, but this scenario is still nowhere in sight.
(8) Energy diplomacy: Government facing policy dilemma due to
nuclear development, history and territory issues
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
February 14, 2006
The government is facing policy dilemma in pursuing energy
diplomacy. Amid growing arguments calling for economic sanctions
against Iran over its resumption of uranium enrichment
activities, there has appeared concern over a possible setback to
Japan's joint project with that nation to develop the Azadegan
oil field, expected to be launched in 2008. Talks with China on
the development of gas fields in the East China Sea and
negotiations with Russia over the East Siberian oil pipeline plan
are also encountering complications. Such issues as Iran's
nuclear development program, differences in the view of wartime
history and a territorial issue are apparently hampering Japan's
energy diplomacy.
Iranian foreign minister to visit Japan on Feb. 27
Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki is scheduled to visit Japan for
three days starting on Feb. 27. Foreign Minister Taro Aso intends
to urge him to suspend that nation's nuclear development program,
when he meets with him. The Azadegan oil field, an undeveloped
oil field located in the southwestern part of Iran, has one of
the largest oil reserves in the Middle East with the estimated
amount of deposits at 5 to 26 billion barrels. The Iranian side
is expected to shoulder 25% of the total project costs, and 75%
by the Japanese side. For Japan, Iran was the third largest crude
oil supplier, following Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates, in 2005. Once the Azadegan oil field is developed on a
full scale, imports of crude oil independently developed by Japan
will likely to increase 50 % . However, in an effort to prevent
Iran from becoming a nuclear state, the US is geared up to work
on concerned countries to impose economic sanctions on it. In
view of the relationship of alliance with the US, the possibility
of Japan finding it difficult to positively press ahead with the
project cannot be ruled out.
Yasukuni issue affects development of gas fields
In Japan-China comprehensive vice-ministerial dialogue held on
Feb. 10 and 11, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo
conveyed his government's proposal for mutual visits by the
TOKYO 00000820 011 OF 011
leaders of the two countries to Vice Foreign Minister Yachi.
Yachi reiterated the Japanese government's proposal for jointly
developing gas fields in the East China Sea with each country
developing its own side with the median line in between. Vice
Minister Dai made a negative response to the proposal.
Differences in the views of wartime history between the two
countries are casting a dark shadow on the gas field development
issue as well.
Suffering setback in talks with Russia as well
Japan is suffering a setback also in talks with Russia on the
construction of an oil pipeline from East Siberia. The Japanese
proposal for constructing a pipeline as far as the Pacific Ocean
side all at once was rejected at the bilateral summit last
November. The two-step formula was instead adopted, as Russia
proposed. The prospect is now strong that a China-bound branch
line will be built first to meet definite demand from China.
The deadlocked Northern Territories issue is behind the pipeline
building talks. Japan intends to pursue talks, based on the 1993
Tokyo Declaration, which noted: "A peace treaty is to be signed,
after settling the attribution of the four Northern Territories."
Russia constrained the Japanese proposal with President Putin
noting, "Acknowledging the present state of each other's country,
the two countries have begun to search for settlement measures
that are acceptable for both sides." Bargaining continues.
SCHIEFFER