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Viewing cable 06NAIROBI744, KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE ? FEBRUARY 2006

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06NAIROBI744 2006-02-17 13:10 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Nairobi
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000744 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
AID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, 
KCHANNELL, LPOWERS, CABLA 
(A)AA/AFR FOR WWARREN 
DCHA/FFP FOR BHAMMINK, DNELSON, SBRADLEY 
AFR/EA FOR JESCALONA, JBORNS 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
STATE FOR JGAFFNEY, NGAREY 
NAIROBI FOR ABEO 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID KE EAGR EIND PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT:  KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE ? FEBRUARY 2006 
 
REF: NAIROBI 7343 AND PREVIOUS 
 
      SUMMARY 
 
1. The short rains (October-December) food security 
interagency assessment has been completed. The 
overall assessment process and methodology was 
coordinated and backstopped by the Kenya Food 
Security Steering Group (KFSSG) comprising of 
representatives of GOK, NGO and UN agencies. 
USAID/Kenya Emergency Coordinator participated in the 
assessment in an observer capacity covering 
pastoralist areas in the North East. 
 
2. The assessment find that short-rains season failed 
in much of eastern and northern Kenya.  Where rains 
occurred, they began late, were poorly distributed, 
and ended early.  The current drought extends not 
only through Kenya but also much of southern Somalia 
and Southern Ethiopia.  Recovery from the extended 
drought will not be immediate, and pastoralists in 
particular will need continued support to avoid 
further erosion of their productive assets. 
 
3. On February 8, 2006, the GOK made an appeal for 
international assistance to 3.5 million drought- 
affected people in Kenya. It is estimated that a 
total of 395,026 MT of food will be required to 
assist victims of drought through March 2007. Out of 
this requirement, approximately 60,000 MT will be met 
through domestic production, leaving a net import 
requirement of 335,026 MT.  In addition, $21.7 
million will be required in non-food assistance. 
 
4. US Ambassador to the FAO and WFP, Tony Hall 
visited drought-affected areas of Kenya from February 
13-15, 2006. End summary. 
 
The food security assessment framework 
 
5. An interagency and multi-sectoral food security 
assessment, organized by the Kenya Food Security 
Group (KFSSG) has completed the fieldwork and data 
analysis and issued its final report on February 8, 
2006. 
 
6. The assessment methodology was based on a 
livelihoods approach to understanding vulnerability, 
and used an adapted version (for rapid assessment) of 
the household food economy method for the field data 
collection.  Given the urgency in conducting the 
assessment, the KFSSG determined to undertake the 
assessment in three phases:   1) The first phase 
included districts where there were clear indications 
of serious drought impacts on food security. 2) In 
phase two, rapid assessment teams spent 2-5 days in 
meeting with the Arid Lands Officers and District 
Steering Groups in severely drought-affected areas 
and discussing food and non-food needs.  3) The final 
phase of the assessment centered on districts where 
livelihood strategies are more diverse and the impact 
of failed rainfall on income sources, assets and 
coping mechanisms more complex. 
 
7. The assessment covered 27 districts from January 
9-31, 2006.  It included quantitative data collection 
at the household, market and community level and more 
in-depth discussions with the District Steering 
Groups (DSGs).  As appropriate, the assessment teams 
held separate meetings with lead NGOs dealing with 
food security that have representation in the 
District, local district experts, local community 
based organizations, etc. 
 
8. Based on the assessment, approximately 3.5 million 
people in Kenya will require various short to medium 
term relief assistance through the next short rains 
harvest in March 2007. The relief assistance includes 
an estimated 395,026 MT of food valued at 
approximately $221 million.  In addition, the report 
identifies $21.7 million worth of non-food assistance 
in health and nutrition, water and sanitation, and 
emergency agricultural and livestock interventions. 
 
9. The report also highlights the need to strengthen 
food security analyses to allow a more sophisticated 
analysis of the acute and chronic food security 
issues prevailing in Kenya. 
 
Food security and agro-climatic conditions 
 
10. According to FEWS/NET, Kenya experiences mild 
cyclical drought events approximately every 3-5 years 
with more severe dry periods roughly in ten-year 
cycles. Since 1998, successive poor rainy seasons 
have limited the ability of poor households in parts 
of the ASAL (Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) to recover 
lost assets and employ traditional coping mechanisms. 
In addition to lack of rains, limited purchasing 
power, political marginalization (in the pastoralist 
context) and limited livelihood options are 
exacerbating the drought in Kenya. 
 
11. The current drought may be characterized as a 
regional crisis in which pastoralists and agro- 
pastoralists in Northern Kenya, Southern Somalia and 
Southeastern Ethiopia are all affected at the same 
time, disrupting their trans-boundary mobility (in 
search of water and grazing) and traditional coping 
strategies. 
 
12. In Western Kenya, the long-rains (March- June) 
season are the most important season accounting for 
close to 85 percent of total annual crop output. 
However, while the contribution of the short-rains 
season is significantly lower, it remains the most 
important season for farm household in the drought- 
prone southeastern lowlands.  The short-rains season 
accounts for close to 70 percent of annual output in 
these areas. 
 
13. While overall national crop production is 
favorable, (most of it is derived from the western 
highlands) farmers in the lowlands have experienced a 
series of exceptionally poor seasons that culminated 
in a near-total crop failure during the 2005 October- 
December short-rains season. 
 
14. The purchasing capacities of farm households in 
the lowlands have declined markedly and many 
households are under severe food stress.  Although 
cereal prices are lower than average and lower than 
in the previous year, drought affected-farmers are 
unable to purchase quantities of grain that can 
sustain household food security. 
 
15. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), 
total national output for the 2005/2006 season is 
about 2.7 million MT, marginally higher than average 
annual maize output.  While current domestic supply 
is sufficient to meet local non-emergency demand 
through the beginning of the 2006 long rains harvest 
(at the end of July), a good 2006 long-rains season 
is critical in replenishing national maize supply. 
Should the long-rains season fail to come by April, 
maize prices could dramatically rise as farmers and 
traders hold on to their stocks for speculative 
purposes. 
 
Emergency Operation (EMOP) status 
 
16. Based on the short-rains assessment, EMOP 
districts increased from 17 to 26 and the number of 
people requiring food aid has sharply increased from 
1.2 to 3.5 million.  According to the World Food 
Program, over 30,000 MT of monthly ration is required 
to address immediate food needs of 3.5 million people 
through March 2007. 
 
17. Existing pipeline (including GOK?s recent pledge 
of 60,000 MT and USG additional contribution of 
10,000 MT) will not go beyond end March 2006. 
Shortly after the GOK?s appeal for international 
assistance on February 8, 2006, a joint GOK/WFP press 
statement was issued, reiterating the need for 
donors? immediate response to the appeal to respond 
to the urgent relief needs of approximately 3.5 
million drought-affected people throughout Kenya. 
 
18. In FY 2006, the USG provided 12,000 MT of wheat, 
which was swapped for 14,400 MT of locally provided 
maize, and an additional 10,000 MT in assorted 
commodities. In addition, the USG, through OFDA, is 
planning to contribute $1.5 towards the non-food 
sector through UNICEF and various NGOs. 
 
19. More recent non-USG contributions include Euro 5 
million from EU/ECHO, GBP 1 million from the UK, Euro 
1 million from France, Euro 1 million from Ireland, 
$500,000 from Italy and $200,000 from Turkey. 
Additional contributions are also expected from other 
donors. 
 
Ambassador Tony Hall's Visit to Kenya 
 
20. US Ambassador to the FAO and WFP, Tony Hall 
visited Kenya from February 13-15, 2006.  During this 
period, he visited a drought-affected pastoralist 
district (Wajir) in Northeastern Kenya and a 
successful irrigation project in Rift Valley 
(Turkana, supported by P.L.480 TII development 
program. He was accompanied by Ambassador William 
Bellamy and USAID/Kenya Mission Director, Stephen 
Haykin in his trip to Northeastern province. 
(Reported septel) 
 
21. Under the auspices of REDSO, a Pastoralist 
Working Group (PWG) in Kenya briefed Ambassador Tony 
Hall about the regional food crisis and the group's 
effort to address the problem through potential 
famine funds. 
 
 
Discussions on longer-term food security issues 
 
 
22. At present, there are initiatives within the 
agency and among humanitarian actors in Kenya to 
address the problem of persistent food insecurity and 
extreme vulnerability in the region.  In addition to 
responding to the prevailing humanitarian needs, 
USAID/Kenya is actively participating in these 
discussions aimed at addressing the root causes 
recurrent drought and chronic vulnerability in 
Kenya's Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). 
 
23. One of these initiatives is a Pastoralist Working 
Group (PWG) that has been formed, under the auspices 
of REDSO, to brainstorm on the root causes of 
vulnerability, particularly in the pastoralist areas 
of the Horn of Africa where vulnerability to drought 
is evident.  The group aims at identifying viable 
interventions and ultimately developing a proposal to 
tap into potential famine funds.  USAID/Kenya co- 
chairs this group and plays key role in the 
development of the proposal. 
 
24. USAID/Kenya is also actively engaged in informal 
Humanitarian Donor Group discussions, organized to 
improve understanding of the factors underlying 
repeated food crises in marginal areas and 
identifying new approaches to breaking the cycle of 
relief dependency.  Further details on these 
discussions will be provided in a separate cable in 
the future. 
 
Conclusion and recommendations 
 
 
25. The failure of the short rains in Kenya has a 
regional context as similar drought conditions exist 
in neighboring Somalia and Southern Ethiopia, among 
other places in the region.  As a result, pastoralist 
livelihoods across the country and the region are 
severely threatened as the very basis of their food 
security system, livestock, are dying in 
unprecedented numbers due to lack of water, browse 
and pasture. 
 
26. However, the crises also affected significant 
number of marginal agricultural and agro-pastoralist 
communities living in Kenya's semi Arid and Semi Arid 
areas.  For instance, out of the 3 million persons 
targeted for general food distributions, 
approximately 2 million are classified as marginal 
crop producers and agro-pastoralists. 
 
27. The food crisis in marginal agricultural and ASAL 
areas is clearly much deeper than Emergency. It is 
rather a fundamentally chronic poverty problem, 
necessitating strategies to address the root causes 
of food insecurity.  This calls for urgent policy 
actions by the GOK that promote targeted investment 
in the areas in order to reduce levels of poverty and 
extreme vulnerability. Notwithstanding the climate 
variations and the ensuing unreliability of rains, 
the areas are endowed with diverse resources that, if 
managed creatively, could significantly improve the 
livelihoods of the communities at risk. 
 
28. USAID/Kenya will continue to play an active role 
in the dialogue around understanding the factors 
underlying repeated food crisis in various parts of 
the country to find new approaches to protect poor 
people from short-term shocks and reduce their food 
insecurity in the medium term.  This discussion will 
enable to affirm joint GOK donor commitment to 
tackling chronic food insecurity in a more 
appropriate manner.  In this context, it is also 
recommended that the food security analysis be 
enhanced to allow a more sophisticated analysis of 
the acute and chronic food security issues facing 
millions of Kenyans today. 
 
29. Meantime, given the likelihood of serious 
emergency food pipeline break beyond March 2006, the 
USG should strengthen its relief assistance to meet 
urgent food and non-food needs of millions of people 
expected to suffer from the drought. BELLAMY