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Viewing cable 06LIMA759, ELECTION UPDATE: ALAN GARCIA AND HIS APRA PARTY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA759 2006-02-27 21:29 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #0759/01 0582129
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 272129Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8902
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3034
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9123
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0064
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0236
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6533
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4127
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 000759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE:  ALAN GARCIA AND HIS APRA PARTY 
PICKING UP STEAM 
 
REF: A. LIMA 644 
     B. LIMA 633 
     C. LIMA 494 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
1.  (U)  The latest national poll by the Apoyo consultancy, 
taken 2/22-24, showed center-right Unidad Nacional candidate 
Lourdes Flores holding on to first place, although her 
support fell two points to 33 percent; ultra-nationalist 
Union por el Peru candidate Ollanta Humala remaining in 
second after advancing one point to 26 percent, while APRA 
party candidate (and former President) Alan Garcia shot up 
five points to 22 percent.  The poll indicated that APRA's 
congressional slate was also surging forward, with its 
support jumping five points to place it in first with 26 
percent, while Unidad Nacional's list fell five points to 
second place with 22 percent.  With 41 days to go to election 
day, the Peruvian presidential contest is heading into the 
far turn as a three-candidate race, with the Flores remaining 
in the lead, second-place challenger Humala holding his own, 
and Garcia starting to make a strong stretch run.  With 58 
percent of those polled still somewhat uncertain who they 
will vote for -- 46 percent of whom say they expect to make 
up their minds on election day -- it remains anyone's guess 
which two candidates will qualify for the May run-off.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
THE LATEST POLL RESULTS 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  The Apoyo poll interviewed 2000 people in 79 
provinces around the country, representing 81 percent of the 
Peruvian population.  When asked which candidate they would 
vote for if the election were held that day, the response was: 
 
Lourdes Flores          33 percent (down two percent from two 
weeks earlier) 
Ollanta Humala          26 percent (up one percent) 
Alan Garcia             22 percent (up five percent) 
Valentin Paniagua        7 percent (down one percent) 
Martha Chavez            4 percent (down two percent) 
Others                   8 percent (down one percent) 
 
The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which 
excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name 
a candidate.  In the Apoyo poll, only 63 percent of 
respondents provided "valid votes," which are the ballots 
that the election authorities will use to determine the final 
results.  Even these "valid votes" are not firm, as 58 
percent of those polled said they were still uncertain who 
they will actually vote for, and 46 percent of these 
respondents said that they only expect to make up their minds 
on election day. 
 
3.  (U)  With none of the candidates in line to win a 
majority of the vote, the election will likely be decided by 
a second round run-off between the two candidates receiving 
the most votes in the first round.  According to the poll 
results, in a run-off Flores would defeat Humala by 60-40 
percent, and would defeat Garcia by 62-38 percent, while 
Humala and Garcia would tie 50-50 percent. 
 
4.  (U)  In the congressional race, the Apoyo poll reported a 
strong surge by the APRA list, which improved its support by 
five percent over the past two weeks, vaulting it into first 
place over Unidad Nacional, which fell five points.  Humala's 
Union por el Peru (UPP) party remained in third with an 
unchanged 15 percent support.  Valentin Paniagua's Centrist 
Front and Fujimorista Martha Chavez' Alliance for the Future 
party each fell one point, while President Toledo's Peru 
Posible party for the first time surpassed the minimum 
threshold required for representation in Congress of four 
percent of the national vote.  The following table lists each 
party's support, while our calculations of the approximate 
proportional number of legislative slots that each party 
would take are in parenthesis: 
 
 
APRA                     26 percent (38 seats) 
Unidad Nacional          22 percent (32 seats) 
Union por el Peru        15 percent (22 seats) 
Centrist Front            9 percent (13 seats) 
Alliance for the Future   6 percent (9 seats) 
Peru Posible              4 percent (6 seats) 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
5.  (SBU)  If this were a horse race, those betting on APRA 
and its candidate Alan Garcia would be jumping and shouting 
the loudest.  Going into the final turn their champion seems 
to be picking up a head of steam as APRA's strong party 
organization coupled with Garcia's populist proposals (he's 
promising everything from roads, to water services to garbage 
pick-ups) and charismatic oratory kick into high gear. 
Nonetheless, Flores is maintaining her lead, while Humala 
remains rock steady with one-quarter of the vote, which does 
not seem to be affected by the charges of human rights 
violations against him.  Paniagua and Chavez seem destined to 
flounder behind in single digits.  According to the Apoyo 
poll, the three leading candidates are separated by 11 
points.  The poll does not cover the one-fifth of the 
population that lives in isolated rural areas, however, which 
is more likely to support APRA's Garcia or the anti-political 
class Humala, rather that the center-right Flores. 
Consequently, the actual difference between the three 
candidates probably is much closer than the Apoyo survey or 
any other poll indicates, and we can expect that the race to 
qualify for the second round run-off will come right down to 
the wire.  END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE