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Viewing cable 06LIMA728, FLIRTING WITH DISASTER? OLLANTA HUMALA'S ECONOMIC
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06LIMA728 | 2006-02-23 22:15 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Lima |
VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHPE #0728/01 0542215
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 232215Z FEB 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8861
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3023
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9111
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0054
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0224
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2281
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 000728
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC AND EB/IFD/OMA
STATE PASS USTR (BHARMAN)
STATE PASS AID (LAC/SA)
TREASURY FOR G. SIGNORELLI
COMMERCE FOR 4331/MAC/WH/MCAMERON
DEPT OF ENERGY FOR DPUMPHREY/GARY WARD/SARAH
LADISLAW/MANOLIS PRINIOTAKIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD ENRG SOCI PGOV PE
SUBJECT: FLIRTING WITH DISASTER? OLLANTA HUMALA'S ECONOMIC
POLICIES
REF: A) LIMA 494
B) LIMA 382
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The rise in the polls of the ultra-
nationalist, anti-system presidential candidate Ollanta
Humala has created considerable interest and concern about
the kinds of economic policies he would implement as
President. He has not yet offered an economic platform, and
it is not clear that he has given economic policy much
thought. However, what he has said in speeches and press
interviews tracks with a Chavez/Morales economic model. He
opposes the free trade agreement with the U.S. He supports
government control of natural resources. He openly admires
the presidency of General Velasco, who oversaw large-scale
expropriations and nationalizations. Although Humala and
his economic team talk about maintaining low inflation,
small budget deficits and honoring foreign debt commitments,
the core of his beliefs are protectionist and statist. End
Summary
Humala Effect
-------------
¶2. (SBU) Ollanta Humala's emergence as a serious contender
for the presidency of Peru created brief but not
insignificant economic turmoil in Peru. The stock market
dropped 6.5 percent on December 19, its biggest one-day drop
since 2000, reacting to both the first round victory of
Bolivian President Evo Morales and the release of a poll
showing Humala running second in the presidential campaign.
The manager of Peru's largest shopping mall told Embassy
Econoffs that his mall suffered significant sales declines
in the days following the release of the poll numbers.
Peruvian bonds temporarily lost value as Humala's popularity
rose.
¶3. (SBU) Humala has not yet offered a comprehensive economic
plan. What is known about his positions comes from a couple
of news interviews and comments made by his economic
advisors. Humala's statements tend to be broad, and when
pressed for details, he says that experts will work out the
details. It is quite likely that Humala has not given much
thought to economic issues beyond a rudimentary level. Post
has culled available sources for an analysis of Humala's
economic beliefs; Embassy personnel did not meet directly
with Humala's campaign staff.
Nationalist Economics
---------------------
¶4. (U) The central thread in Humala's economic
pronouncements is a fervent nationalism. This core belief
appears to have been embedded by the two most prominent
influences in his life; the military and his family.
Ollanta Humala spent 20-years in the military, taking part
in the wars against the Shining Path and Ecuador and leading
a coup attempt in 2000. He was raised in an ultra-
nationalist family that stressed a politics based on racial
purity. Humala's father is a former communist and founder
of a race-based movement called Ethnocacerism.
¶5. (U) Ethnocacerists are anti-globalization, anti-
democratic and anti-Chile (Ref A). Ollanta Humala was a
leader of the Ethnocacerist party until December 2005 when
he had a very public split with his father and the party.
There is some question whether the split was real or staged
to distance himself from the party's more extravagant
beliefs and from his brother Antauro, who led a bloody but
unsuccessful uprising in Andahuaylas in January 2005.
Whatever the circumstances, Humala's proposed economic
policies reflect his strong nationalist beliefs.
Channeling Hugo
---------------
¶6. (U) Most of Humala's economic positions appear to fit
squarely in the Chavez/Morales model of increased state
control of national resources and anti-U.S./pro-Latin
America trade policies. He is also a strong admirer of Juan
Velasco Alvarado, an army General who led a successful coup
in Peru in October 1968 and served as President until he
himself was overthrown in August 1975. Velasco's
administration nationalized entire industries, expropriated
power, telecommunication and mining companies, tightened
import controls and seized and redistributed farms across
the country. While voicing admiration for Velasco, Humala
has said that his policies would be different since times
and circumstances have changed.
The Brain Trust
---------------
¶7. (SBU) Humala's closest economic advisors are Gonzalo
Garcia Nunez, candidate for first Vice President and a
former Central Bank Director, and Felix Jimenez, an
economics professor and former Ministry of Economy and
Finance official. In newspaper interviews, the two have
described relatively orthodox, if at times vague economic
policies. Both mention that an Humala administration would
maintain some of the current government's policies, such as
maintaining low inflation and small budget deficits. A
visiting group of international investment advisors met with
Garcia and Jimenez the week of February 6, and told us they
were surprised and relieved that their proposals were not
more outlandish. It is unclear how much influence either
advisor has on the candidate.
That 70's Show: Government Control of Energy Resources
--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶8. (U) Humala and his advisors have been clear that an
Humala Administration would increase government
participation in the energy sector. His advisors talk of
reviewing the gas and petroleum tax stability contracts, and
Humala has said that he intends to ".place the resources at
the service of (Peruvian) nationals." However, the
rebalancing of government participation would come through
negotiations rather than expropriation. His advisors point
to Bolivia as an example of how the process could take
place.
National Capital and Foreign Investment
---------------------------------------
¶9. (SBU) Humala and his advisors say that his government
would favor "national capital investments," but they do not
explain what that means or how it would work. An Humala
administration would welcome international investors as long
as they ".pay their taxes, pay royalties, create jobs and
transfer technology." At the same time, the candidate has
stated clearly Chile would not be permitted to invest in
Peru's ports. The Chileans are direct maritime competitors
and not very good at running ports, according to Humala.
(Note: Other front-running candidates, reacting to Humala's
statements, made similar statements about restricting
Chilean investments in ports. The success of Humala's
populism has forced the candidates to veer towards some of
his positions, such as limiting Chilean investments and
questioning whether President Toledo and the current
congress should ratify the U.S. trade accord, see Ref B.)
Humala has said that the existing investment contracts would
be reviewed, but he appears to mean that he intends to
ascertain whether the agreements were reached in a legal
manner.
Against U.S. Trade Accord
-------------------------
¶10. (U) Humala is not vague about his opposition to the free
trade agreement with the U.S. "I'm against it," he said
recently. He warns that it will ".destroy agriculture and
benefit other very small sectors that are not going to
advance Peru towards development." He says that the Toledo
government does not have the "moral authority" to sign the
agreement, and the current Congress should not review and
ratify it. If the trade deal is ratified before he comes to
office, he has vowed to revise it. He has called for more
public information about the agreement, and possibly a
national referendum. He warns that the agreement could
contain secret side letters, like the kind that ".handed
Leticia over to Colombia in 1922 or Tiwinza to Ecuador."
While Humala is anti-free trade with the U.S., he says that
Peru should focus on building a Latin American trade block.
This Sea Is Our Sea
-------------------
¶11. (U) Humala is equally clear regarding the maritime
dispute with Chile. Ceding anything to Chile ".would be
treason to the motherland." He referred to the Convention
of the Sea as ".globalization of the sea, for the benefit of
the big fishing fleets." Humala has talked about reviving
Peru's fishing fleet and reinforcing the merchant fleet:
"It's not acceptable that our graduates from merchant marine
school get their first jobs in fleets carrying a flag that
is not ours."
Yet Another New Model: Globalization and Peruvian Identity
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶12. (U) Although Humala and his advisors say that they are
not anti-globalization, the candidate has said that
globalization is ".drilling a hole in the Peruvian economy,
weakening our identity." An Humala administration would
protect Peruvians from the "pernicious effects" of
globalization by protecting certain sectors, such as
agriculture. At the same time, he says that globalization
is a fact of life, with both good and bad aspects.
¶13. (U) Humala and his team say that one five-year term is
not enough to create a whole new economic model; therefore,
they aspire only to laying the foundation. One aspect would
be "consolidating" the domestic markets, by protecting
important sectors for national development. Again, the
example they give is agriculture. The candidate has hinted
at restricting food imports to spur demand for domestically
produced products. This is one of the Velasco policies that
failed spectacularly in the 70s. Humala has said that he
would shift the balance of power away from "big capital."
Things We Like
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¶14. (SBU) Humala's economic plans are mostly protectionist
and statist. He and his advisors, however, do highlight
certain sound economic policies that have created strong
economic growth in Peru. Inflation would be kept low.
Government budget deficits would be small. Foreign debt
obligations would be honored. His advisors stressed these
points to the visiting international bankers to good affect.
Comment: A Bad Idea Whose Time Has Come?
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¶15. (SBU) Humala is probably not an economic deep thinker,
so his policies are likely to adhere to his core nationalist
principles. Those appear to be in the Chavez/Morales mold
of greater state control and tighter trade restrictions.
That model, however woeful, is in ascendance in this region.
Morales' decisive victory gives Humala reason to believe it
could sell in Peru as well. The halt of Humala's rise in
the polls, however, may suggest that the constituency for
these types of failed policies is not large enough to win
the presidency. For that reason, Humala may start to veer
towards more orthodox, free market policies, at least in
public. More likely is that he will continue to make vague
statements on economics and hope to win on other issues.
ARELLANO