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Viewing cable 06LIMA633, LATEST POLL: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES FLORES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA633 2006-02-14 22:25 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #0633/01 0452225
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 142225Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8740
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2983
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6510
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9080
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0025
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0191
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4113
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEHOND/DIRONDCP WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 000633 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SNAR PREL ECON PE
SUBJECT: LATEST POLL: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES FLORES 
MAINTAINS LEAD OVER ANTI-SYSTEM CANDIDATE OLLANTA HUMALA; 
FUJIMORISTA MARTHA CHAVEZ IN FIFTH PLACE 
 
REF: A. LIMA 494 
 
     B. LIMA 453 
     C. LIMA 382 
     D. LIMA 351 
     E. LIMA 346 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (U) Center-right presidential candidate Lourdes Flores 
(Unidad Nacional alliance) has maintained her lead (35-25 
percent) over ultra-nationalist anti-system candidate Ollanta 
Humala (Union por el Peru - UPP) in the latest Apoyo poll. 
Ex-President Alan Garcia (APRA) is a further eight points 
back, former interim President Valentin Paniagua (Centrist 
Front) has dropped further to eight percent, and Fujimorista 
candidate Martha Chavez (Alliance for the Future) continues 
her climb up, though  still in single digits. The recent 
national Apoyo poll does not show a significant change from 
the poll two weeks ago.  With only 53 percent of those polled 
having definitively made up their minds, it remains an open 
race with just over seven weeks until the election. 
 
----------------------- 
THE LATEST POLL RESULTS 
----------------------- 
 
2. (U) The latest Apoyo poll, taken 2/8-10 in 78 provinces 
around the country representing 81 percent of Peru's 
electoral population, asked respondents who they would vote 
for if the election were held that day.  The response was: 
 
Lourdes Flores                 35 percent (down 2 percent 
from two weeks before) 
Ollanta Humala                 25 percent (down 2 percent) 
Alan Garcia                    17 percent (up 1 percent) 
Valentin Paniagua               8 percent (down 2 percent) 
Martha Chavez                   6 percent (up 1 percent) 
Other candidates                9 percent 
 
Should the election go to a second-round run-off, as seems 
likely since no/no candidate is near winning a first round 
majority, the Apoyo poll indicated that Flores would easily 
defeat her principal challengers, Humala by 22 percent and 
Garcia by 34 percent. In a second-round between Humala and 
Garcia, the poll showed a statistical tie with Humala at 51 
percent and Garcia at 49 percent.  Unlike previous polls (Ref 
B), Apoyo based their analysis on the 78 percent of 
respondents that represented valid votes, and left aside the 
15 percent of respondents who would vote blank, and 7 percent 
who did not/not know who they would vote for.  This 22 
percent of respondents who did not select a candidate is up 
four percent from two weeks ago.  The valid vote count is 
what the National Elections Board (JNE) will use to determine 
the presidential and congressional results. 
 
3. (U) While Flores remains in the lead, only 53 percent of 
those polled said they have made up their minds on who they 
would vote for, with 30 percent still deciding between two or 
three candidates, 13 percent responding that no candidate is 
convincing, and four percent replying they are uninformed or 
do not care.  Despite Chavez's slow, but steady climb, 67 
percent of those polled said they would definitely not/not 
vote for her, followed by 55 percent responding they would 
definitely not/not vote for Garcia and 53 percent responding 
in kind against Humala.  When asked if they knew the date for 
the next elections (4/9), only 49 percent knew the correct 
answer. 
 
4. (U) With respect to congressional preferences, the poll 
results indicated that the following parties would surpass 
the minimum threshold of four percent of the national vote 
for winning legislative seats (our calculations of the 
approximate proportional number of congressional slots that 
each party would take are in parentheses): 
 
 
Unidad Nacional (UN)          27 percent (41 seats) 
APRA                          21 percent (32 seats) 
Union por el Peru (UPP)       15 percent (23 seats) 
Centrist Front                10 percent (14 seats) 
Alliance for the Future        7 percent (10 seats) 
 
Alliance for the Future is Chavez's Fujimorista party.  The 
poll indicates that President Toledo's Peru Posible party 
would fall short of the threshold with three percent, as 
would Jaime Salinas' Justicia Nacional party.  The 
congressional polling numbers are based on the 66 percent of 
the respondents who represented valid votes; 34 percent of 
respondents opted to vote blank or not specify their vote. 
This reflects the electorate's continued disenchantment with 
Congress which maintained an eight percent approval rating in 
the poll. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (SBU)  The two leading candidates were both battered in 
the press by accusations of the quality of candidates on 
their congressional tickets.  However the impact on the polls 
was minimal.  The ten point gap between Flores and Humala 
represents no change since the last poll two weeks ago. 
(Note: the previous poll showed an eight percent gap but also 
included the null/blank votes; the spread between the two 
weeks is mathematically unchanged. End Note.)  Though a 
majority of those polled believed the human rights violations 
against Humala and the sexual harassment accusations against 
his second vice presidential candidate, Carlos Torres Caro, 
are true, the result was a minor drop for Humala.  Martha 
Chavez continues to rally the support of Fujimoristas and may 
soon overtake Paniagua in the polls if current trends 
continue. End Comment. 
POWERS