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Viewing cable 06LIMA453, ELECTION UPDATE: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA453 2006-02-03 16:02 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #0453/01 0341602
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031602Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8556
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2929
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9024
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 9985
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0151
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6487
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4096
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEHOND/DIRONDCP WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS LIMA 000453 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SNAR PREL ECON PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE:  CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES 
FLORES OPENS UP EIGHT POINT LEAD OVER ANTI-SYSTEM CANDIDATE 
OLLANTA HUMALA 
 
REF: A. LIMA 382 
 
     B. LIMA 351 
     C. LIMA 346 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
1.  (U)  Center-right presidential candidate Lourdes Flores 
(Unidad Nacional alliance) has opened up an eight point lead 
(30-22 percent) over ultra-nationalist anti-system candidate 
Ollanta Humala (Union por el Peru - UPP) in the latest Apoyo 
consultancy poll.  Ex-President Alan Garcia (APRA) is a 
further nine points back, former Interim President Valentin 
Paniagua (Centrist Front) has descended into single digits, 
and Fujimorista candidate Martha Chavez (Alliance for the 
Future) is starting to move up from the also-rans.  Poll 
respondents continue to indicate that Flores would beat any 
of the other contenders in a run-off.  With some 50 percent 
of the electorate still uncertain who they will actually vote 
for, however, it remains far too early to tell how this 
election is likely to come out.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
THE LATEST POLL RESULTS 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  The latest Apoyo poll, taken 1/25-27 in 30 urban 
centers (5000-plus population) around the country, asked 
interviewees who they would vote for if the election were 
held that day.  The response was: 
 
Lourdes Flores            30 percent (up five percent from 
two weeks before) 
Ollanta Humala            22 percent (down six percent) 
Alan Garcia               13 percent (down two percent) 
Valentin Paniagua          8 percent (down two percent) 
Martha Chavez              4 percent (up two percent) 
Others                     5 percent (down three percent) 
None/Blank/Don't Know     18 percent (up six percent) 
 
Should the election go to a second-round run-off, as seems 
likely since no/no candidate is anywhere near winning a 
first-round majority, the Apoyo poll indicated that Flores 
would easily defeat each one of her three main challengers by 
margins of 18 percent or more; Humala would defeat Garcia 
(40-30 percent); and Paniagua would beat Humala (45-36 
percent) and Garcia (47-28 percent). 
 
3.  (U)  While Flores is pulling ahead, her support does 
not/not seem to be firm.  Only 13 percent of poll respondents 
said that they were committed to her candidacy, while another 
38 percent said that she was among their favored 
alternatives; Humala's numbers were 11 percent and 25 
percent, respectively.  Furthermore, the Apoyo survey found 
that the electorate remains highly volatile, with only 50 
percent of those polled saying that they have made up their 
minds, 34 percent answering that they are mulling over 
two-three candidates, and 16 percent replying that they are 
undecided or uninformed. 
 
4.  (U)  With respect to congressional preferences, the poll 
respondents indicated that the following parties would 
surpass the minimum threshold for winning a legislative seat 
of four percent of the national vote (our calculations of the 
approximate proportional number of congressional slots that 
each party would take are in brackets): 
 
Unidad Nacional            18 percent (41 seats) 
APRA                       13 percent (30 seats) 
UPP                        11 percent (25 seats) 
Fujimorista parties         5 percent (12 seats) 
Centrist Front              5 percent (12 seats) 
 
---------------- 
CAMPAIGN DETAILS 
---------------- 
 
 
5.  (U)  Flores spent the past week campaigning outside of 
Lima, first in the most populous northern department, Piura, 
then in the most populous southern one, Arequipa.  She 
continued to concentrate on social issues such as health and 
education, while pledging austerity and increased funding for 
port development (without Chilean involvement).  The other 
parties took potshots at her campaign, concentrating their 
fire on her First Vice President running mate Arturo Woodman. 
 Victor Garcia, President of Paniagua's Accion Popular party 
(and a congressional candidate for the Centrist Front) 
claimed that businessmen connected to Woodman had attempted 
to press Paniagua to quit the race and support Flores.  APRA 
Congressman and party Co-Secretary General Jorge del Castillo 
accused an unidentified "international financial entity" with 
offering to reimburse Justicia Nacional candidate Jaime 
Salinas for his campaign expenses if he were to retire and 
transfer his support to Flores, a charge Salinas angrily 
denied.  Meanwhile, the media, particularly leftist daily "La 
Republica," suggested that Woodman committed improprieties 
when acting as middleman in the 1999 concession to the Romero 
Group (which Woodman represented) of the port of Matarani in 
Arequipa; Woodman replied that he has twice been exonerated 
by investigating congressional committees.  "La Republica" 
has also led the charge against Unidad Nacional congressional 
pre-candidate Horacio Canepa, claiming that the latter's 
acquittal on charges he helped orchestrate electoral fraud in 
1995 had been arranged by Fujimori's national security 
advisor Vladimiro Montesinos. 
 
6.  (U)  Ollanta Humala's campaign contined to be on the 
defensive.  Human rights organizations presented increased 
evidence linking him to human rights violations connected to 
his 1992 service with an anti-terrorist unit in the Huallaga 
Valley, although none of the evidence is as yet conclusive 
(Septel).  Independent Moralizing Front Congressman Gustavo 
Pacheco filed six criminal charges against Humala in 
connection with these incidents, as well as with the 2005 
Andahuaylas uprising led by Humala's brother Antauro, and the 
Attorney General's Office has commenced an official 
investigation.  Humala's First Vice Presdent running mate 
Carlos Torres was accused of sexual harassment by two former 
students; Torres denies the charges and Humala says he will 
stand by Torres unless the charges are proved.  Meanwhile, 
turmoil remains the rule within Humala's Peruvian Nationalist 
Party (PNP), many of whose members are upset at Humala's 
decision to only present candidates on the UPP list (the PNP 
will have 60 percent of those slots), as well as at their 
exclusion from the UPP slate.  Finally, Humala and his top 
advisors are furiously trying to complete the UPP 
congressional list in time to meet the 2/8 registration 
deadline, their task complicated by media investigations 
showing that at least 18 of the pre-candidates are facing 
criminal charges or have previous convictions. 
 
7.  (U)  Alan Garcia spent the week campaigning in Lima, 
Ancash and Piura, sounding populist themes (defense of the 
eight hour work-day, opposition to service contracts designed 
to circumvent labor protections, austerity in government 
salaries and publicity expenses, increased issuance of 
property titles).  Valentin Paniagua also hit the campaign 
trail, visiting Ica and taking walking tours of markets and 
low-rent districts in Lima, where he told small textile 
producers that, if elected, he would look into reducing the 
Value Added Tax from 19 to 17 percent.  Martha Chavez, 
accompanied by ex-President Fujimori's brother Santiago (her 
First Vice President running mate) and daughter Keiko (likely 
heading the Fujimorista congressional list in Piura), 
jump-started her campaign with some success, doubling her 
national poll preference and rising to six percent in Lima. 
President Alejandro Toledo's Peru Posible party was left 
without a presidential ticket after its candidate, Rafael 
Belaunde, formally withdrew from the race, ostensibly over 
disagreements concerning the party's congressional list. 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
8.  (SBU)  The eight-point gap opening up between Flores and 
Humala is a tenuous one.  The shift in support to the Unidad 
 
 
Nacional candidate may well be the result of a momentary 
polarization of the race between Flores and Humala following 
the latter's surge into a virtual tie for first in the polls 
two weeks ago.  Quite simply, many supporters of Paniagua and 
other minor centrist canidates seem to have shifted their 
support to Flores as they saw her as the only candidate in a 
position to halt Humala.  With Humala starting to fall in the 
polls, however, these voters could well move back to 
Paniagua, to a minor candidate, or to the ranks of the 
undecided.  The candidate who now seems poised to make a move 
is Martha Chavez, who doubled her poll numbers and could soon 
overtake Paniagua, should the latter continue his steady 
descent.  With Alberto Fujimori definitively disqualified 
from running, his followers appear to be getting their act 
together and uniting behind Chavez.  END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE