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courage is contagious

Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES340, Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUENOSAIRES340 2006-02-13 10:33 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0340/01 0441033
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131033Z FEB 06 ZDK CT NUM SVCS
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3453
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 2075
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000340 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE 
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND CHRIS KUSHLIS 
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN 
AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ 
USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER 
USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH AND ROBERT WHOLEY 
USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for 
the week ending February 10, 2006 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Weekly Highlights 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
- The peso was unchanged against the USD, closing 
again at 3.08 ARP/USD. 
- Argentine beef exports at risk due to foot-and-mouth 
disease. 
- Venezuela reportedly trading in GOA debt. 
- Aguas Argentinas withdraws its ICSID arbitration 
claim, but shareholder claims continue. 
- GOA to implement supply-side polices rather than 
increase interest rates to control inflation. 
- CPI up 1.3 percent m-o-m in January, down slightly 
from December's 1.5 percent increase. 
- Nominal wages increased 20 percent y-o-y in 2005. 
- Commentary of the Week: "What is Needed: A Strategy, 
with Clear Rules and Prices" 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
MARKETS 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
The peso was unchanged against the USD this week, 
closing again at 3.08 ARP/USD. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
1.  The peso remained flat versus the USD this week, 
closing at 3.08 ARP/USD.  Earlier in the week, the 
peso depreciated one cent to 3.09 ARP/USD after the 
Central Bank (BCRA) purchased USD 93 million in the FX 
market on February 7 and 8.  Then the BCRA dropped out 
of the FX market, allowing the peso to recover its 
lost cent and close the week at 3.08 ARP/USD -- 
unchanged from last Friday's close.  The peso exchange 
rate has depreciated 1 percent since the beginning of 
year. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
ECONOMY / FINANCE 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Argentine beef exports at risk due to foot-and-mouth 
disease. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2.  An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 
Corrientes Province (25km from the Paraguay border) 
caused Mercosur (Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) Chile, 
Israel and South-Africa to ban Argentine beef imports, 
while Russia said it will ban beef imports only from 
the infected region.  The European Union which absorbs 
90 percent of Argentine beef exports, has not yet 
announced any reaction to the outbreak.  According to 
the GOA, the outbreak is limited to a narrow area, but 
Senasa (the animal health and food safety agency) has 
imposed a sanitary emergency state to better prevent 
any spread of the disease.  Reportedly, the GOA will 
slaughter over 3,000 cattle as a precautionary 
measure. 
 
3.  On February 9, the association of major beef 
exporters asked the Minister of Economy to eliminate 
the recently-created Exporters Registry to obtain 
export permits beef, and to reduce export taxes on 
beef exports from the current 15 percent to 5 percent 
to reduce the negative impact of the outbreak on the 
beef sector.  In 2005, beef exports reached USD 1.4 
billion (3.5 percent of total exports).  However, the 
outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease may help the GOA 
control inflation, since beef prices have increased 
steadily this year and the GOA was unable to reach a 
price restrain agreement with the sector.  Domestic 
beef prices are expected to fall as the import bans 
increase local supply. 
 
 
Venezuela reportedly trading in GOA debt. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
4.  On February 9, the GOA published a resolution in 
the Official Gazette authorizing the issuance of USD 
308 million (nominal value - equal to USD 250 million 
at market prices) of Boden 2012 bonds to the Republic 
of Venezuela.  The resolution's publication created 
some confusion, because this same transaction had been 
reported in the press at the end of January, and led 
some to believe this was a second bond issuance to 
Venezuela.  In 2005, the GOV purchased USD 1.6 billion 
in GOA bonds.  According to press reports, the GOV has 
sold USD 600 million of these bonds to certain 
Venezuelan banks at the below-market official exchange 
rate.  The Venezuelan Finance Minister has said that 
Venezuela still holds USD 1 billion in GOA debt and is 
willing to purchase USD 2.5-3.0 billion of GOA bonds 
in 2006.  Thus far in 2006, the GOV has purchased USD 
500 million. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Aguas Argentinas withdraws its ICSID claim, but 
shareholder suits continue. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5.  In its stockholders meeting on February 8, Aguas 
Argentinas (AA) announced that it will withdraw its 
USD 1.7 billion arbitration claim against the GOA 
pending before the International Center for the 
Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).  However, 
AA said that this withdrawal does not affect claims by 
its stockholders, suggesting that Suez (the major 
stockholder of AA) will continue with its claims.  AA 
also reviewed the state of negotiations to sell the 
company.  AA had given two potential buyers - Latin 
American Assets and Fintech - until February 8 to buy 
the company under preferential terms, but no agreement 
was reached.  The GOA has proposed the Eurnekian Group 
as a potential buyer. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
GOA to implement supply-side polices to control 
inflation rather than raise interest rates. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
6.  Minister of Economy Miceli defended the GOA's use 
of supply-side policies to control inflation rather 
than apply the "orthodox" remedy of raising interest 
rates.  She argued that an increase in interest rates 
would only lead to an appreciation of the peso and 
recession.  She reiterated that the GOA will 
concentrate on price agreements with the help of small- 
and-medium size enterprises that have agreed to act as 
supply chain price monitors. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
GOA considers raising the minimum income tax 
threshold, as demanded by unions. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
7.  The GOA is considering increasing the minimum 
threshold for income tax paid by employees.  Unions 
have been demanding this measure for some time, and it 
played a part in protests and riots in Santa Cruz 
Province this week that left one policeman dead. 
According to local media, that tragedy led the GOA to 
consider the change.  Currently, the minimum threshold 
is ARP 1,835 per month for single employees and ARP 
2,235 per month for married employees.  A Ministry of 
Economy spokesman said that the GOA is studying 
different options, including raising the minimum 
threshold, increase wage deductions or a combination 
of the two, and their fiscal consequences.  Senator 
Jorge Capitanich said that increasing the minimum 
threshold by 25 percent, would generate a fiscal cost 
of ARP 589 million, ARP 284 million of which would be 
lost by provinces under the Co-participation revenue 
sharing plan. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
GOA expects increased investment as a result of the 
MAC safeguard system agreed with Brazil. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
8.  On February 9, Secretary of Industry Miguel 
Peirano said that the MAC safeguard system agreed with 
Brazil will result in a sharp increase in investment 
because it provides certainty to foreign and domestic 
investors.  Last week, the GOA reached agreement with 
Brazil on an agreement to allow temporary import 
restrictions in order to protect some industrial 
sectors.  Under the agreement, either country can 
limit imports of a product from the other country if 
it can demonstrate that surging imports are damaging 
their domestic industry.  A bi-national committee will 
analyze complains from industry groups and allow 
import restrictions for a period of three years, with 
the option of a one-year extension.  The Secretary 
downplayed the negative effect the agreement may have 
on Argentine exports to Brazil, which has indicated it 
may limit imports of Argentine wheat, wine and rice. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
BCRA rolls over its maturities and maintains Lebac 
interest rates unchanged. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
9.  The BCRA received bids of ARP 1.6 billion in its 
February 7 Lebac auction, in line with the ARP 1.6 
billion announced amount and slightly above the ARP 
1.5 billion in Lebacs that came due during the week. 
This allowed the BCRA to roll over its maturities for 
the second time in several weeks, accepting bids for 
ARP 1.5 billion.  The yield on the 49-day Lebac, 70- 
day Lebac and the 175-day Lebac remained unchanged at 
6.80 percent, 7.00 percent and 7.90 percent 
respectively.  Lebacs for other maturities were 
withdrawn due to lack of interest.  Unlike previous 
auctions, investors concentrated more than 50 percent 
of their bids in Nobacs of more than 9 months, which 
enabled the BCRA to roll over its maturities and 
extend the maturity profile of its debt.  The BCRA 
accepted ARP 783 million of Nobacs (51 percent of the 
accepted amount in the auction) with maturities of 
238, 434 and 679 days at a yield of 3.08 percent, 6.19 
percent and 5.56 percent, respectively. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
CPI up 1.3 percent m-o-m in January, down slightly 
from December's 1.5 percent.  January's PPI also up 
1.3 percent m-o-m. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
10.  The CPI increased 1.3 percent m-o-m in January, 
in line with market expectations and following a 1.5 
percent m-o-m increase in December.  CPI core 
inflation accounted for 0.53 percent, the seasonal 
component for 0.66 percent, and the regulated price 
component explained the final 0.09 percent of the 
increase.  The monthly rise was driven mainly by an 
increase in the prices of leisure activities (+7.2 
percent - reflecting seasonal factors due to the 
summer holidays), health (+1.8 percent), food and 
beverages (+0.9 percent despite new price-restraint 
agreements between the GOA and many producers and 
retailers, including leading supermarket chains). 
According to the GOA, the CPI would have increased 1.5 
percent m-o-m in January without price restraint 
agreements, suggesting that price restraint agreement 
strategy is paying off.  Last week, the GOA closed a 
new agreement with the country's seven leading 
supermarket chains. These new price-restraint 
agreements aim to maintain prices on 223 basic goods 
unchanged for one year, but also are subject to bi- 
monthly monitoring of any changes in the economic 
environment.  In a meeting with Congress on February 
7, Minister of Economy Miceli stated that February's 
CPI increase is expected to be below 1 percent.  Some 
private consultants are now reducing their inflation 
forecasts to 0.7 percent as a result of the outbreak 
of foot-and-mouth disease (beef has a relative large 
weight of 4.5 percent in the CPI basket) and the new 
price restrain agreements closed by the GOA with 
suppliers of the basic basket of school goods 
(Argentine children head back to school in March). 
Year-over-year, the CPI is up 12.1 percent.  For 2006, 
the BCRA consensus survey forecasts 12.4 percent 
inflation in 2006, compared to the 9.1 percent 
included in the 2006 Budget and the Central Bank's 8- 
11 percent inflation target. 
 
11.  Producer prices increased 1.3 percent m-o-m, due 
to a 0.2 percent rise in the prices for manufactured 
goods and electricity and a 4.4 percent increase for 
primary goods prices, partially offset by a 0.7 
percent fall of the price of electric energy. 
Imported goods prices increased 0.7 percent.  The PPI 
index increased 13.1 percent y-o-y. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Nominal wages increased 20 percent y-o-y in 2005. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
12.  On February 8, the GOA announced that the nominal 
wages increased 20 percent y-o-o in 2005.  However, 
real wages increased only 7 percent due to the 12.3 
percent increase in prices.  The highest increase was 
in formal private sector wages, up 26 percent in 2005, 
while informal private sector and public sector wages 
increased by 13 percent.  The strong growth of nominal 
wages is mainly attributed to the robust pace of GDP 
growth in 2005.  Final GDP figures are expected to 
show growth last year of 21-22 percent in nominal 
terms (and 9 percent in real terms). 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Kirchner- poverty decreased to 34 percent in the 
fourth quarter of 2005. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
13.  At a housing program ceremony on February 10, 
President Kirchner announced that poverty dropped four 
percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2005, to 34 
percent of the population, while indigence decreased 
one percentage point to 12.5 percent.  President 
Kirchner's statement came in response to a report by 
INDEC (the government statistics bureau) showing that 
the richest 10 percent of the population earned 30.8 
times more than the 10 percent poorest of the 
population in the third quarter of 2005, up from 24.8 
times in the second quarter. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
February Consumer Confidence Index down 1.5 percent m- 
o-m. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
14.  The Consumer Confidence Index- published by 
Universidad T. Di Tella - decreased 1.5 percent m-o-m 
in February to 57.1 points, after increasing 12 
percent in January.  The fall in February was highest 
in consumer's willingness to purchase durable goods 
and real estate (-1.8 percent m-o-m) and consumers' 
sentiment towards the macroeconomic environment (-1.3 
percent m-o-m), followed by negative expectations on 
individual's personal situation (-1.4 percent).  The 
index is now 6 percent below its all-time high, 
reached in February 2004.  The index increased 0.4 
percent y-o-y.  The index is based on surveys of 
individual economic sentiment and consumer willingness 
to purchase durable goods, houses and cars. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Commentary of the Week: "What is Needed: A Strategy, 
with Clear Rules and Prices".  By Daniel Montamat, 
former president of YPF oil company and a former 
Minister of Energy.  [Note: Translated with permission 
of the author from an editorial published in La Nacin 
on February 6.  End Note.] 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
15.  The steady drop in oil production and reserves is 
a clear sign of the lack of confidence that exists 
about the long-term energy situation in Argentina. 
 
16.  Proven reserves of gas now are estimated at 10 
years at current production levels, and at 9 years for 
petroleum. 
 
17.  With a barrel of crude at 65 dollars, how is it 
that exploration has not intensified, including in 
high risk basins? 
 
18.  It is true that 65 dollars in Texas translates 
into about 41 dollars here -- after discounting for 
average quality adjustments, transportation and export 
taxes of 45 percent, and from that we still have to 
deduct the impact of royalties and other taxes. 
 
19.  But with average production costs of around 9-10 
dollars per barrel, the revenues earned by producers 
should permit higher levels of exploratory drilling. 
 
20.  Above all, oil companies are valued by their 
principal asset: their reserves.  If they don't 
replace the reserves that they put into production, or 
only replace them in part, the stock market will 
punish their stock price.  We saw this in the case of 
the Repsol oil company. 
 
21.  But what we forget in Argentina, without a little 
introspection, is that international oil companies can 
replace their reserves in the deposits in our country 
or deposits in other countries that offer safer 
opportunities and/or more attractive profits. 
 
22.  If long-term uncertainty continues to exist, the 
dollars that companies earn from exploitation will not 
be re-invested in Argentina, much less in high-risk 
exploration activity, which is what could provide us 
with new oil and gas. 
 
23.  We also cannot forget that YPF [the former state 
oil company] no longer exists to carry out exploration 
as the operational arm of official petroleum policy. 
And ENARSA (the state entity created by the current 
government), omnipotent on paper, has no financial 
wherewithal.  Thus, private enterprises will have to 
carry the major investment burden in this area. 
 
24.  A new Hydrocarbons Law is about to be introduced 
in Argentina.  The practical significance of the 
approval of the law is linked to the regime for 
authorizing exploitation concessions and their 
extension.  The majority of the petroleum and gas 
concessions were authorized between 1991 and 1992 and 
will remain in force until 2016-17.  Almost all of 
them will expire at the same time.  When the 
expiration period draws near, if there are no clear 
rules, operators will begin to reduce their investment 
and over-exploit the remaining reserves, without 
replacing them. 
 
25.  Together with approval of the new Hydrocarbons 
Law, I would urge Argentina to offer a new exploration 
proposal to national and international investors. 
That proposal should feature other incentives than 
those in the official proposal under study in the 
Congress, and not mandate the forced participation of 
ENARSA.  What does the country need?  A strategy, 
clear rules of the game and clear signals on prices. 
[Note: We reproduce selected articles by local experts 
for the benefit of our readers.  The opinions 
expressed are those of the authors, not of the 
Embassy.  End Note.] 
 
 
GUTIERREZ