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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES273, Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06BUENOSAIRES273 | 2006-02-06 15:08 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Buenos Aires |
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #0273/01 0371508
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061508Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3315
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 2061
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000273
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND CHRIS KUSHLIS
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ
USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER
USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH AND ROBERT WHOLEY
USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
the week ending February 3, 2006
--------------------------------------------- --------
Weekly Highlights
--------------------------------------------- --------
- The peso depreciated 0.3 percent against the USD,
closing at 3.08 ARP/USD.
- Argentina and Brazil agree on a safeguard system to
protect domestic industries.
- GOA creates registry for beef exports;
implementation delays paralyze exports.
- GOA reached price-restraint agreements with leading
supermarket chains.
- Provincial finances becoming more dependant on GOA
transfers.
- Tax revenue rose 27 percent y-o-y to ARP 11.2
billion in January - above expectations.
- GoA runs an ARP 24 million primary fiscal surplus in
December - worse than expected.
- December trade surplus of USD 1 billion brings 2005
trade surplus to USD 11.3 billion.
- Commentary of the Week: "Possible Ways to Develop a
Long-Term Bond Market"
--------------------------------------------- --------
MARKETS
--------------------------------------------- --------
--------------------------------------------- --------
The peso depreciated 0.3 percent against the USD
during the week to close at 3.08 ARP/USD.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶1. The peso depreciated 0.3 percent versus the USD
this week, closing at 3.08 ARP/USD - one cent lower
than last Friday's close. This week's depreciation is
mainly attributed to higher dollar demand by banks and
Central Bank (BCRA) intervention in the FX market, and
comes in spite of higher USD inflows from investors to
purchase stocks and GOA bonds. The BCRA purchased USD
139 million and EUR 11 million in the first four days
of the week. The peso exchange rate has depreciated 1
percent since the beginning of year.
--------------------------------------------- --------
ECONOMY / FINANCE
--------------------------------------------- --------
--------------------------------------------- --------
Argentina and Brazil agree on safeguard system to
protect domestic industries.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶2. On February 1, Minister of Economy Miceli
announced that the GOA had reached agreement with
Brazil on an agreement to allow temporary import
restrictions in order to protect some industrial
sectors. Under the agreement, either country can
limit imports of a product from the other country if
it can demonstrate that surging imports are damaging
their domestic industry. A bi-national committee will
analyze complaints from industry groups and allow
import restrictions for a period of three years, with
the option of a one-year extension. Argentina trade
deficit with Brazil reached USD 3.7 billion as
Argentine exports to Brazil increased 12 percent,
while Argentine imports from Brazil jumped 35 percent.
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA creates registry for beef exports; implementation
delays paralyze export shipments.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶3. On February 2, the GOA created an Exports Registry
to issue permits for beef exports. Beef producers now
have to request a permit for all exports, while the
GOA determines the cuts to be shipped and the markets.
The GOA is attempting to reduce beef exports in order
to increase local supply and avoid beef prices
increases, following the failure to reach a price-
restraint agreement between the GOA and the sector.
Meanwhile, beef exports scheduled for this week have
been paralyzed while exporters wait for permits. The
GOA's focus is on cheaper cuts of meat that are
included in the basket of goods that make up the CPI
index, and not on more expensive cuts.
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA reached price-restraint agreements with leading
supermarket chains.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶4. On February 1, the GOA closed a new agreement with
the country's seven leading supermarket chains. These
new price-restraint agreements aim to maintain prices
on 223 basic goods unchanged for one year, but also
are subject to bi-monthly monitoring of any changes in
the economic environment. This agreement is similar
to the agreement the GOA signed with supermarkets in
December that lasted until January 31, but also
includes supermarket suppliers, meaning that the
supermarkets will not bear the entire burden of these
price freezes. These agreements advance the GOA's
strategy of curbing inflation through price-restraint
agreements with producers and retailers. (According
to local media, January's CPI is expected to increase
1.3 percent m-o-m. The Ministry of Economy and
President Kirchner plan to continue working on new
price-restraint agreements.)
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA orders execution of ARP 38 million guarantees from
Aguas Argentinas due to unpaid fines.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶5. On January 30, the GOA ordered the execution of
ARP 38 million in guarantees from the water company
Aguas Argentinas (AA) due to unpaid fines. The
execution against the guarantees is provided for in
AA's concession contract and is a first step towards
rescission of its contract, following the same
procedures that Santa Fe Province used in rescinding
its contract with Aguas de Santa Fe (both AA and Aguas
de Santa Fe are controlled by Suez of France). AA
stockholders will meet on February 8, when Suez may
announce its plans to withdraw from the contract.
--------------------------------------------- --------
AES suspends its ICSID arbitration claim against the
GOA.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶6. The American company AES - the owner of power
distributor Edelap - suspended its arbitration claim
against the GOA before the International Center for
the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). AES
filed its claim in 2002 and sought USD 1.8-2.0 billion
from the GOA. According to the ICSID registry, the
claim is suspended - not withdrawn - and the company
could activate the arbitration process again if the
GOA does not comply with an agreement that calls for
tariff renegotiations in 2006, as well as investment
by AES. AES received a one-time 28 percent tariff
increase in 2005.
--------------------------------------------- --------
BCRA maintains Lebac interest rates and extends Nobac
maturities to 9 months.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶7. The BCRA received bids of ARP 1.7 billion in its
January 31 Lebac auction, well above the ARP 1.1
billion announced amount and the ARP 1.3 billion in
Lebacs that came due during the week. This allowed the
BCRA to roll over its maturities for the first time in
several weeks, accepting bids for ARP 1.5 billion.
The yield on the 77-day Lebac rose 4 basic points to
6.99 percent, while the yield on the 98-day and the
182-day Lebacs reached 7.25 percent and 7.90 percent,
respectively. Lebacs for other maturities were
withdrawn due to lack of interest. Unlike previous
auctions, investors concentrated 50 percent of their
bids in Nobacs of more than 9 months, which enabled
the BCRA to roll over its maturities and extend the
maturity profile of its debt. The BCRA accepted ARP
768 million of Nobacs (50 percent of the accepted
amount in the auction) at a yield of 11.04 percent -
18 basis points below the previous auction.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Banks pay back ARP 1.6 billion in rediscount loans to
the BCRA.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶8. On February 2, two banks - Banco Galicia and GOA-
owned Banco Nacion - pre-paid ARP 1.6 billion in
discount borrowing to the BCRA. This prepayment, plus
the banks' payment of a ARP 70.5 million installment
of the matching system (under which banks repay the
BCRA for financial assistance received during the 2001
financial crisis) will generate a monetary base
contraction of ARP 1.7 billion. Following these pre-
payments, only four banks - out of twenty-four at the
beginning of the crisis - will have outstanding
discount borrowing from the BCRA, totaling ARP 9.8
billion.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Provincial finances become more dependent of GOA
transfers.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶9. Abeceb Consulting estimates that the provincial
primary fiscal surplus will fall to 0.4 percent of GDP
(ARP 2.6 billion) in 2006, from 0.8 percent of GDP
(ARP 1.4 billion) in 2005 and 1.4 percent of GDP (ARP
6.4 billion) in 2004. The decrease in the provincial
surplus is attributed to salary increases for
provincial employees, revenue growth deceleration
(both provincial revenue and GOA transfers are slowing
down), and the implementation of the new Education
Financing Law, which obligates provinces to set aside
additional funds for education. The worsening of
provincial finances, and the GOA being the provinces'
main creditor, is making provinces more dependent on
the Kirchner administration, which controls both the
amount of discretionary federal funds transferred to
provinces each year and the rate of repayment of their
debts to the GOA. Provincial debt totals ARP 75.2
billion, 70 percent of which (or ARP 52.7 billion) is
owed to the GOA.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Tax revenue rose 27 percent y-o-y to ARP 11.2 billion
in January - above expectations.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶10. January federal tax revenue increased 27 percent
y-o-y to ARP 11.2 billion - above market expectations
of ARP 10.6 billion. The results reflect strong
economic activity, the positive effects of inflation
on revenues and improved compliance. Labor
contributions jumped 45.6 percent y-o-y due to
increases in job creation and salary increases, income
tax revenues rose 39.3 percent y-o-y, and VAT and
trade tax revenues increased 22 percent and 16.5
percent y-o-y, respectively. According to the GOA,
the increase in tax collection is due to income tax
revenue, VAT and labor contributions which provided 70
percent of January tax revenue. In real terms,
revenues increased 13 percent y-o-y. The BCRA
consensus survey forecasts 2006 tax revenue at ARP 135
billion.
--------------------------------------------- --------
GoA runs an ARP 24 million primary fiscal surplus in
December - worse than expected.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶11. The GoA announced a primary fiscal surplus of ARP
24 million in December, well below market expectations
of ARP 115 million. The worse-than-expected result
was due to the prepayment of end-of-the year bonuses
to civil servants, and increased transfers to the
private sector and provinces. In December, fiscal
resources increased 34.4 percent y-o-y, while
expenditures rose 11.8 percent y-o-y. The primary
fiscal surplus for 2005 was ARP 19.6 billion (3.7
percent of GDP) - in line with the BCRA consensus
forecast - as a result of ARP 126.4 billion in
revenues and ARP 106.8 billion in expenditures. The
2005 provincial primary fiscal surplus is estimated to
reach ARP 3.7 billion (according to private
consultants), which would bring the consolidated
primary fiscal surplus to ARP 23.4 billion (4.5
percent of GDP, down from the 2004 fiscal surplus of
5.3 percent of GDP).
--------------------------------------------- --------
December trade surplus of USD 1 billion brings 2005
trade surplus to USD 11.3 billion.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶12. The December trade surplus reached USD 1 billion,
above the BCRA consensus forecast of USD 828 million.
Export revenues increased 19 percent y-o-y to USD 3.5
billion, with increases in both quantities (+10
percent) and prices (+9 percent). Exports were driven
by an increase in industrial goods (+4 percent y-o-y),
primary goods (+29 percent y-o-y), fuel and energy
(+20 percent y-o-y) and agro-industrial products (+29
percent y-o-y). Imports increased 18 percent y-o-y on
the back of a strong domestic demand to USD 2.5
billion, with increases in both quantities (+12
percent) and prices (+5 percent). Imports were driven
by increases in fuel and oil (+85 percent y-o-y),
capital goods (+18 percent y-o-y), accessories for
capital goods (+6 percent y-o-y), consumer goods (+17
percent y-o-y) and intermediate goods (+14 percent y-o-
y), and were partially offset by a drop in other goods
(-27 percent y-o-y). In 2005, exports increased 16
percent to USD 40 billion while imports increased 28
percent to USD 28.7 billion, bringing the trade
surplus to USD 11.3 billion, slightly above the BCRA
consensus forecast of USD 11 billion but below 2004's
USD 12.1 billion trade surplus.
--------------------------------------------- --------
January Government Confidence Index up 16 percent m-o-
m.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶13. The Government Confidence index jumped 16 percent
m-o-m in January to 2.63 points, and is 0.4 points
above the average during the Kirchner administration,
and well above the 1.2 point reading in May 2003 when
President Kirchner took office. The index increased in
all five categories measured. Confidence in the GOA's
ability to solve citizens' problems is still the
factor generating the most confidence and increased 8
percent m-o-m. The index rose 12 percent y-o-y. [The
Government Confidence Index is a survey-based index
prepared by Di Tella University. It varies from zero
to five points and seeks to measure public opinion of
GoA general performance, efficiency of public
spending, honesty of GoA officials and the
government's ability to solve problems.]
--------------------------------------------- --------
Employment index increased 9.7 percent y-o-y in
December 2005, according to Ministry of Labor survey.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶14. On January 31, the Ministry of Labor announced
that its December 2005 employment index increased 9.7
percent y-o-y, well above the 6.8 percent y-o-y rise
in December 2004 and the 5.8 percent y-o-y rise in
December 2003. The index is based on surveys from the
cities of Buenos Aires, Mendoza, Rosario, Cordoba and
Tucuman. Although every sector recorded a y-o-y
increase of more than 6 percent, construction reported
the largest job creation during 2005 (up 33.2
percent), followed by financial services (up 11.3
percent) and manufacturing industry (up 9.1 percent).
--------------------------------------------- --------
January labor demand index down 0.11 percent m-o-m.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶15. The January labor demand index calculated by Di
Tella University decreased slightly, down 0.11 percent
m-o-m to 127.12 points. The decrease is mainly due to
weaker demand for commercial employees (down 2.34
percent) and administrative personnel (down 2.02
percent). The index is up 25.7 percent y-o-y. [The
index is based on comparisons of job vacancy
announcements printed in the two largest newspapers of
the country.]
--------------------------------------------- --------
Commentary of the Week: "Possible Ways to Develop a
Long-Term Bond Market". By Miguel Kiguel. [Note:
Translated with permission of the author from an
editorial published in La Cronista on February 1,
¶2006. End Note.]
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶16. The creation of a long-term bond market continues
to be one of the major challenges that our economy is
facing. Among the difficulties in developing this
market is the lack of stable, predictable
macroeconomic markers for inflation and interest rates
over the medium-term.
¶17. In the past, we tried to resolve these problems
by issuing financial instruments denominated in
dollars. But we have learned from the strong
oscillations in the exchange rate in our history that
this type of instrument is only useful for exporters
or those companies that generate income in dollars.
It isn't useful for a government that earns most of
its revenues in pesos.
¶18. What are the peso-denominated alternatives? They
are fixed-rate debt, variable-rate debt, or debt with
indexation clauses linked to prices that cover the
risk of unexpected increases in the inflation rate.
¶19. Fixed-rate instruments only work in countries
with very low inflation rates. Last year, Brazil was
able to issue a 10-year bond at 12 percent per year,
but this was after a huge effort to lower inflation to
levels of 5 percent per year, and with an inflation
targeting regime, which indicates a commitment to
maintain those levels over the medium term. Even with
all of this, Brazil had to pay a real interest rate on
the on the order of 7 percent per year.
¶20. The option of emitting a variable-rate bond (for
example, at the market rate plus a spread) could be an
attractive option. In this case, the yield of the
bond would be connected to the rates set by the
Central Bank's monetary policy. This type of
instrument has not had much success in industrialized
countries. Brazil has used the Selic rate. While
this has allowed Brazil to place this type of bond
successfully, it has required increases in interest
rates to slow inflation, and has generated substantial
fiscal costs. Up to now, it has been an expensive
financing option.
¶21. The other alternative is to issue indexed bonds.
This is the path followed by many countries until
recently, including Chile, Colombia and Mexico, to
develop their medium- and long-term financial markets.
It is worth reviewing the pluses and minuses of this
type of financing, especially for the management of
public debt.
¶22. Indexed debt allows the investor to know he is
protected from the vagaries of inflation, that the
value of his indexed bonds won't be eroded as a result
of an unanticipated increase in prices. In other
words, it isn't easy to destroy their value.
¶23. For the issuer, i.e., the government, the nominal
value of the indexed debt increases as prices
increase. In principle, this isn't a problem for
governments given that nominal GDP also increases with
prices (and therefore the debt-to-GDP ratio doesn't
increase) and that taxes also increase with the level
of prices, meaning that the cost of paying this debt
doesn't increase.
¶24. It has been said many times that the cost of
indexed debt in Argentina is high, based on adding the
inflation rate (the CER rate) to the spread (which,
for 5 year bonds, could be 3 points). For a five year
bond, with 12 percent inflation, they say that the
debt is expensive because the "implicit" interest rate
is 15 percent. This line of reasoning is erroneous,
because if the government would have issued fixed-rate
debt, the interest rate would have been much higher
due to the uncertainty that exists about future
inflation.
¶25. It also isn't certain that indexed debt will
increase in value in dollar terms. This probably is
the case now in Argentina, given that our country has
an under-valued currency and the dollar is increasing
less than prices. But once real exchange rate
equilibrium is re-established, the dollar's value
certainly will increase with prices and indexed debt
therefore will not increase in dollar-value terms.
¶26. The issuance of indexed debt carries some risks.
For example, if there would be a strong increase in
the price level, it could affect the payment capacity
of companies and of wage-earning workers whose income
doesn't rise with inflation. This is what we lived
through at the beginning of the 1980's. It also could
generate greater use of indexing in short-term
contracts and salaries, which would limit the
economy's capacity to adjust relative prices, and
increase inflationary inertia.
¶27. Indexing is a useful tool for developing long-
term capital markets, but indexing of short- and
medium-term contracts should be avoided, and inflation
should be kept to moderate levels (below 15 percent).
[Note: We reproduce selected articles by local experts
for the benefit of our readers. The opinions
expressed are those of the authors, not of the
Embassy. End Note.]
GUTIERREZ