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Viewing cable 06BOGOTA1327, PRIMER FOR MARCH 12 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BOGOTA1327 2006-02-13 14:27 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0010
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #1327/01 0441427
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131427Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2190
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 001327 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: PRIMER FOR MARCH 12 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
1.  Summary:  This cable provides a brief overview of 
upcoming Congressional elections on March 12, in which 166 
House and 102 Senate seats will be decided.  Newly elected 
members will take office for four-year terms starting July 
20.  Thousands of individuals are running overall, spread 
over the roughly 60 political parties currently in 
existence.  After this election, only 8-12 parties should 
remain, due to new vote threshold requirements.  Revised 
electoral rules and ballot dynamics have radically changed 
the political calculus of both aspirants and political 
party leaders.   End Summary. 
 
THE BASICS 
---------- 
 
2.  Voters across Colombia and overseas will elect 166 
House and 102 Senate members on March 12.  House voting is 
held at the departmental (U.S. state equivalent) level 
while Senate races are national in nature.  For the House, 
each department has been assigned a number of seats, based 
on population (for example, Bogota has 18 seats, Antioquia 
Department 17, and so forth).  In each department, the 
individual voter may select one candidate from within a 
party's pre-determined candidate list.  In addition, 
Colombians residing abroad may vote for one House 
candidate (special list) to hold a single special seat 
representing overseas Colombians.  Each voter (whether in 
Colombia or abroad) may vote for one senator, again from 
within a series of party-affiliated lists. 
 
NEW LEGAL-BASED DYNAMICS 
------------------------ 
 
3.  Three major new mechanisms come into play for the 
first time in these elections, based on a new law passed 
in 2003.  First, a minimum vote threshold (umbral) now 
exists in order for a party to: A) maintain its official 
party status, and B) be entitled to assignment of seats in 
either house of Congress.  In order for the party to 
maintain its official status, it must attain two percent 
of the nationwide vote in either the Senate or House 
elections.  For entitlement to Senate seats, the party 
must make the two percent mark.  For entitlement to House 
seats in a particular department, the party must make the 
two percent mark in that department.  Parties failing to 
reach either marker are shut out of the post-election day 
assignment of seats. 
 
4.  Second, individuals will be able to select an 
individual candidate from within a party's list for Senate 
or House, regardless of that individual's numerical order 
on the list (preferential vote or voto preferente). 
Previously, parties crafted lists in which votes were for 
the party alone and the subsequent allocation of seats to 
said party went to the highest-ordered individuals on the 
list.  (Parties may opt for the previous, non-preferential 
scheme, but thus far only one leading party has done so.) 
 
5.  Third, subsequent to voting day, the National 
Registrar will implement use of the D'Hondt method, a 
statistical highest average system named after 
mathematician Victor D'Hondt, and used widely in European 
elections.  The method allocates seats in proportion to 
the number of votes a list received (provided, of course, 
the party made the umbral level).  After the vote count, 
successive quotients are calculated for each list.  The 
quotient is calculated using the formula V/(s+1), with V 
being the total number of votes that list received, and s 
the number of seats that party has been allocated so far 
(initially zero for all parties).  The list with the 
highest quotient gets the next seat allocated, and its 
quotient is recalculated given its new seat total.  The 
process is repeated until all seats have been allocated. 
 
REGISTRAR DECISION ON BALLOT FORMAT 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  The Registrar recently ruled that in order to keep the 
ballot (relatively) simple, the names of individual 
candidates will not appear under each party banner.  The 
parties thus have assigned (or are about to assign) 
numbers to each individual candidate.  Individuals have 
begun to pitch their candidacies publicly in such a 
fashion, for example, running as "Liberal Party - Senate - 
Vote 01." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7.  The Congressional ballot will be exceedingly long and 
complex, and a large number of null votes will almost 
certainly take place.  In recent days, individuals 
expelled from several leading parties have regrouped under 
smaller political party banners in hopes of attaining 
sufficient votes as a group to guarantee a handful of 
seats in the Senate.  Experts project a nationwide Senate 
vote of roughly 12 million.  Under such a scenario, any 
individual party would need to attain roughly 240,000 
votes for Senate in order to be entitled to assignment of 
seats in that body.  Septel will provide an overview of 
the major parties participating in the March 12 elections. 
DRUCKER