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Viewing cable 06ABUJA321, FITCH RATINGS ASSIGNS NIGERIA BB MINUS RATING:

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ABUJA321 2006-02-10 08:42 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Abuja
VZCZCXRO2342
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #0321 0410842
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 100842Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4508
INFO RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 3311
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS ABUJA 000321 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON NI
SUBJECT: FITCH RATINGS ASSIGNS NIGERIA BB MINUS RATING: 
OUTLOOK STABLE 
 
 
1. SUMMARY. The Government of Nigeria (GON) received a BB 
Minus rating, which is just below investment grade from the 
highly respected Fitch Ratings.  The rating was in part 
based on the recent agreements reached with the Paris Club 
(PC), but at this time the GON has no intentions of seeking 
access to the international financial markets. End Summary. 
 
2. On January 31, 2006 Fitch Ratings, a highly respected 
international rating agency in the securities markets, 
assigned the Government of Nigeria (GON) a Long Term foreign 
and local currency rating of "BB MINUS-".  Fitch Ratings was 
the first to introduce the familiar ratings scale (AAA to D) 
that is used today.  They are very well known and their 
reporting is taken very seriously in the financial markets. 
For the GON, this is somewhat of a vindication of the 
economic and financial reforms efforts being made in the 
past few years for the reforms under the present leadership 
of President Olusegun Obasanjo. It will give the GON greater 
and more favorable access to the international securities 
markets. 
 
3. The specific ratings are as follows 
Foreign Currency 
Long Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR):  BB- 
Short Term IDR:                         BB- 
Outlook:                                Stable 
Local Currency 
Long term IDR:                          BB- 
Outlook:                                Stable 
Country Ceiling                         BB- 
Brady Par Bond                          BB 
 
4. The best rating category is "Investment Grade" (AAA to 
BBB), which has the lowest expectation of credit risk and is 
assigned where there is exceptionally strong capacity for 
payment of financial commitments.  The next rating category, 
BB and below, is the beginning of "Speculative Grade", with 
BB Minus, just a notch below.  The GON's rating, BB MINUS, 
indicates that there is a possibility of credit risk 
developing, but business or financial alternatives may be 
available to allow financial commitments to be met.  Other 
countries in this category are Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, 
Lesotho, Turkey and Ukraine. 
 
5.  Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okojo-Iweala invited Fitch 
Ratings to do an assessment of Nigeria based on the GON's 
commitment to economic reforms, improving governance, and 
the agreements reached with the Paris Club (PC) in 2006, 
that cleared USD 30.9 billion of foreign debt. Indeed, the 
improved standing that the debt deal brings inspired the GON 
to seek a sovereign debt rating, whereas they had declined 
USG and UN financial assistance for a sovereign debt rating 
in past years. 
 
6. The rating was affected by decades of economic 
mismanagement and political volatility that will take many 
years to overcome.  Macroeconomic stability remains fragile, 
and further structural reforms will be necessary to reduce 
poverty and to raise living standards. Social unrest in the 
oil producing Niger Delta requires that a larger share of 
the oil wealth be used to address poverty, lack of social 
infrastructure, and environmental degradation.  The 
political tensions and uncertainty as to President 
Obasanjo's intention to seek a third term as president are a 
factor. 
 
7. The current credit outlook has been rated as stable as 
long as the economic reforms and high oil prices continue, 
making it a perfect backdrop which over time improves the 
GON's credit rating.  Other good signs are the sizable oil 
and gas reserves and credible plans to increase output.  The 
GON has made a strong commitment to structural reform, anti- 
corruption, and measures to strengthen transparency and 
accountability.   In addition, on February 6, 2006, Standard 
and Poor's, another highly respected global credit rating 
agency, rated GON as BB Minus for Long Term foreign 
currency, BB for local currency and a stable outlook for the 
future.  Their assessment is supported by the same 
background information that was contained in Fitch Ratings. 
All of which should allow Nigeria a more favorable access to 
the international security markets.  With Nigeria's high 
interest rates, its debt will be attractive to those seeking 
higher yields.  In the short term the main risk is currency 
risk, but at least for now the Nigerian Central Bank has 
consistently supported a strong currency, intervening to 
maintain or even increase the naira's strength against the 
U.S. dollar. At the moment, the GON does not appear to be 
inclined to seek access to international markets. 
 
CAMPBELL