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Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON8, SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO NEW ZEALAND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06WELLINGTON8 2006-01-05 23:58 2011-04-28 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN Embassy Wellington
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWL #0008/01 0052358
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 052358Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2221
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO NEW ZEALAND 
 
Classified By: David Burnett, Charge D'Affaires, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Mission New Zealand warmly welcomes your visit on 
January 12-3.  New Zealand officials are also eager to meet 
with you.  You will be arriving in New Zealand towards the 
end of the summer holiday period.  With Parliament out of 
session until mid-February and many families on holiday, 
things in New Zealand seem especially quiet.  But underneath 
the surface, the Government has real anxiety that it is 
vulnerable to opposition attacks in a number of areas, 
including foreign and defense policies and the Government's 
less than optimal relations with Washington.  The officials 
you meet with will therefore be anxious to court you, and to 
assure you that there are more things that unite our 
countries than divide us. 
 
2.  (C) The Labour Government appears to have recovered some 
public support since its near loss to the National Party in 
September's general elections.  PM Clark remains an extremely 
effective manager, even appearing for the moment to have 
quashed Foreign Minister Peters' tendency to go off the 
foreign policy reservation.  But Labour's recovery may have 
less to do with its political prowess than with the fact that 
the National Party has so far failed to mount an effective 
opposition. 
 
3.  (C) Before Parliament recessed, the opposition had 
focused on attacking the sometimes mercurial Peters, whom 
they regard as the awkward governing arrangement's weak spot. 
  It was a damp squib, as ordinary Kiwis didn't get very 
exercised about Peters.  A controversy over press reports 
that Peters had asked Australia's Foreign Minister Downer to 
help repair New Zealand's relationship with the United States 
soon died down, for example.  Then again, Peters has been out 
of the country for much of the past two months, and many of 
the media are on leave as well.  But he remains an issue for 
the Government, not least because the PM potentially faces 
calls from both her Foreign Minister and the opposition for 
her Government to improve its relations with traditional 
allies Australia and the United States. 
 
4.  (C) It's no wonder, then, that senior Labour officials 
seek to downplay any tensions with us.  For example, during 
their introductory meetings with Ambassador McCormick, both 
the Prime Minister and Minister Goff stressed that the PM 
greatly enjoyed her meeting with you on the margins of the 
Pacific Islands Forum.  They made no mention of the frank 
exchange that our side reported after that meeting.  You can 
expect Goff to convey the same attitude during your visit. 
In addition, you may expect the following from your 
interlocutors here: 
 
5.  (C) Minister Goff:  Goff is likely to push for further 
relaxation of US military restrictions on New Zealand, as he 
did during his first meeting with Ambassador McCormick.  He 
will point to New Zealand's participation with US forces in 
Proliferation Security Initiative exercises as well as our 
joint work in Afghanistan as proof that the current 
restrictions are outdated and counterproductive.  He is not, 
however, likely to mention a recent NZ Defense Force briefing 
paper that told him U.S. restrictions were harming New 
Zealand's ability to remain interoperable with Australia's 
forces.   You may want to explain to Goff why our interests 
elsewhere in the region prevent us from lifting the 
restrictions, and why New Zealand's policies hurt these 
interests. 
 
6.  (C) Minister Peters:  As a Minister outside of Cabinet 
and head of another party (NZ First) Peters is only obliged 
to support the Government's line on issues within his 
portfolio.   He's already proved he can and will stretch the 
definition of support as it suits him.  During your meeting, 
Peters is not likely to follow Goff's attempts to gloss over 
US-NZ differences, and may emphasize that he wants to improve 
bilateral relations.     Although PM Clark (and to some 
extent Goff) hold the real power on foreign affairs issues, 
Peters is a master debater who should not be written off. 
Ambassador McCormick and other Embassy officials are trying 
to reach out to him.  We recommend you tell him that U.S. 
officials would welcome hearing his ideas on how both sides 
can rebuild trust. 
 
7.  (C) Simon Murdoch/Roy Ferguson:  The CEO of the Ministry 
of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Murdoch) and New Zealand's next 
Ambassador to Washington (Ferguson) are both intrigued by 
Washington agencies' brief review of the US-New Zealand 
relationship last year.  They remain interested in a 
bilateral attempt to reevaluate and strengthen ties.  The two 
are likely to want to begin low-profile discussions with you 
on how we can develop a more strategic relationship, given 
current US restrictions and NZ's anti-nuclear 
legislation/policies.  They may also want to explore what 
steps both sides would need to follow to improve our 
relationship were New Zealand to change its policies.  The 
Embassy has cautioned both officials that while we would 
welcome their thinking on these issues,  Washington would not 
be ready for anything approaching a real dialogue until we 
see trust-building steps from the New Zealand side.  You may 
want to reiterate this message. 
Burnett