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Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON18, SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF ADM

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06WELLINGTON18 2006-01-10 02:36 2011-04-28 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN Embassy Wellington
VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWL #0018/01 0100236
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 100236Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUHVPAC/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2235
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
 
 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 1/10/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF ADM 
FALLON AND GEN HESTER TO NEW ZEALAND 
 
Classified By: David Burnett, Charge D'Affaires, for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Mission New Zealand warmly welcomes your 
visits on January 15-19 (PACAF) and January 16-22 
(PACOM).  New Zealand officials are also eager to 
meet with you.  You will be arriving in New Zealand 
towards the end of the summer holiday period.  With 
Parliament out of session until mid-February and many 
families on holiday, things in New Zealand seem 
especially quiet.  But underneath the surface, the 
Government has real anxiety that it is vulnerable to 
opposition attacks in a number of areas, including 
foreign and defense policies and the Government's less 
than optimal relations with Washington.  The officials 
you meet with will therefore be anxious to court you, 
and to assure you that there are more things that unite 
our countries than divide us.  You are arriving in New 
Zealand at a time when the government is attempting to 
set aside, rather than address, recent strains in the U.S.- 
New Zealand relationship in hopes of security and a 
bilateral free trade agreement (FTA).  NZ has stepped 
up cooperation in the global response to terrorism, with 
contributions to Operation Enduring Freedom, to Iraq 
reconstruction (while emphasizing that its contributions 
are based on a "principled position" in support of UN 
commitments), and to the Proliferation Security 
Initiative.  Although the government remains hopeful 
for an FTA, New Zealand appears to have begun to 
accept the message that the U.S. will not open 
negotiations anytime soon.  Nonetheless, a common 
belief among New Zealanders is that, because of New 
Zealand's stance on the Iraq war, or its anti-nuclear 
legislation, the U.S. is punishing the country by 
refusing to engage in FTA talks. 
 
2.  (C) The Labour Government appears to have 
recovered some public support since its near loss to the 
National Party in September's general elections.  PM 
Clark remains an extremely effective manager, even 
appearing for the moment to have quashed Foreign 
Minister Peters' tendency to go off the foreign policy 
reservation.  But Labour's recovery may have less to do 
with its political prowess than with the fact that the 
National Party has so far failed to mount an effective 
opposition.  New Zealand, a former ally, desires much 
from the U.S. but is not willing or able to give much in 
return.  Labour party Prime Minister Helen Clark, in 
power since 1999, has criticized the President and U.S. 
policy many times.  Her political cohorts have done the 
same.  The periods leading to the U.S. elections in 2004 
and the New Zealand elections in September 2005 were 
filled with anti-U.S. rhetoric.  Helen Clark, as well as 
most of the politicians in New Zealand, seek the 
coveted FTA with U.S., mainly because Australia got 
one, and believe that deploying troops to Afghanistan in 
support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) 
warrants it on strategic grounds. 
 
3.  (C) NZ Security Policy and Anti-Nuclear Legislation: New 
Zealand?s anti-nuclear legislation, and its effect on security 
issues, remains a key bilateral irritant.  The policy, which 
prohibits nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered vessels from 
entering NZ waters and ports, dates from 1985 and was 
enshrined in legislation in 1987.  The legislation forced the 
United States to suspend its ANZUS defense alliance 
relationship with New Zealand, which was the intent of the 
Labour back-benchers pushing the legislation. After President 
Bush?s September 1991 announcement that tactical nuclear 
weapons would be removed from both surface vessels and 
submarines, New Zealand Prime Minister James Bolger 
appointed an independent commission to study the safety and 
environmental aspects of nuclear-powered ships.  The 
commission?s report, released in December 1994 confirmed the 
safety of these ships.  Despite this finding, many New 
Zealanders continue to support the anti-nuclear legislation, 
even while hoping for warmer relations with the United States. 
In the last couple of years, the Embassy has been able to 
stimulate a welcome public discussion in the New Zealand 
media and some political sectors on the costs to New Zealand 
of this legislation. 
 
4.  (C) New Zealand Defense Force: The NZDF 
consists of approximately 8600 active duty personnel 
 
(4400 army, 2200 air force and 1800 navy).  The Chief 
of Defense is Air Marshal Bruce Ferguson, who 
finishes his four-year contract in February 2006.  He 
has been extended to 30 April 2006 to allow the new 
government to solicit for and review applicants for his 
position.  There are a total of 22 flag or general officers 
in the NZDF.  There are no minimum criteria for 
applying for the CDF position except that they stand in 
good favor of the government.  Ferguson himself was 
selected over more senior candidates and was promoted 
from one-star to three-star upon his appointment.  Most 
likely to be next CDF ? current Air Force Chief, Air 
Vice-Marshal John Hamilton; current Army Chief, 
Major General Jerry Mateparae; or Joint Forces 
Commander, Major General Lou Gardiner. 
 
-  The Army combat forces consist of two infantry 
battalions, two logistics battalions, one artillery 
regiment, one engineering regiment and a Special Air 
Service (SAS-special forces) group.  The army has been 
the mainstay in the deployments to Afghanistan with a 
100 plus personnel deployment to the Provincial 
Reconstruction Team in Bamyan and a 60 plus SAS 
personnel deployments to Bagram.  The current SAS 
deployment ended November 2005 and attrition and 
perstempo will prevent another SAS deployment for at 
least a year.  The PRT deployment is scheduled through 
to September 2006, but may not be renewed.  The army 
recently purchased 105 light armored vehicles (U.S. 
Stryker frame) and 321 light operational vehicles 
(Pinzgauer) to make their troops more mobile.  These 
vehicles are still in the trial phase. 
 
-  The Navy consists of two warships (Anzac class 
frigates), a support-supply ship and numerous patrol 
and small support vessels.  There is one navy base - 
located in Auckland.  The navy has under contract 
seven new vessels being built.  One multi-role vessel 
designed to carry troops and equipment into benign 
ports (its sister ship is a ferry in Europe).  The other six 
vessels under construction are a combination of 
offshore patrol vessels (2) and inshore patrol vessels (4) 
to monitor maritime activities in New Zealand's EEZ. 
The two frigates have provided support to OEF. 
 
-  The Air Force consists of five C-130, six P-3, two B- 
757 and 14 Iroquois helicopters.  The Clark-led 
government disestablished the combat air force in 2001 
putting up their A-4 jets for sale and canceling their F- 
16 lease contract.  The air force has been relegated to a 
transport and maritime patrol entity.  P-3 planes have 
been used with good results in Arabian waters, in 
support of OEF, for patrolling and EW intercepts.  In 
2005, the ministry of defense announced the awarding 
of a contract to purchase NH-90 helicopters to replace 
the aging Iroquois fleet.  Delivery is not expected until 
2009.  In addition, upgrades and life extensions are 
programmed for the C-130s, P-3s and B-757s. 
 
-  Prime Minister Clark instituted a defense policy that 
favors international peacekeeping, at the expense of 
interoperability with U.S. forces and the ability to 
contribute to regional security missions.  New Zealand 
has remained very active in international security and 
peacekeeping.  The NZDF participated in the first Gulf 
War and in Operation Enduring Freedom, and 
contributed peacekeepers in Cambodia, the former 
Yugoslavia, Somalia, and in East Timor.  More 
recently, New Zealand police and military participated 
in the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to 
the Solomon Islands (RAMSI), as well as participating 
in reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. 
 
5.  (C) Iraq:  New Zealand opposed Operation Iraqi Freedom 
on the basis that it lacked UN sanction.  In fact, PM Clark 
stated there wouldn't have been an Iraq war if Al Gore had 
been elected president.  NZ did contribute to post-conflict 
reconstruction following the passage of UNSCR 1483, in the 
form of a 61-person NZDF engineering team deployed in Basra 
in southern Iraq under British command from September 2003 
until September 2004.  New Zealand has pledged assistance of 
NZ$10 million (approximately US$6.5 million), mainly 
through UN agencies and the red cross but including nz$1 
million in direct aid to help rehabilitate the Iraqi agriculture 
 
ministry building in Baghdad.  To this day, however, PM 
Clark, DM Goff and other politicians still criticize the U.S. 
involvement in Iraq. 
 
6.  (C) US-NZ Free Trade Agreement: GNZ Still 
Pushing:  Despite increasing recognition among GNZ 
officials that negotiations with the U.S. on a free-trade 
deal are unlikely to occur in the near term, leaders have 
continued to put an unjustifiably positive spin on any 
remarks U.S. officials have made about the chances for 
an agreement.  The U.S. does not rule out eventual 
negotiations with New Zealand but it most likely won't 
be before the Trade Promotion Authority expires for the 
Bush administration in 2007.  An FTA would offer U.S. 
producers little opportunity to expand sales in this small 
market whereas New Zealand producers would have 
significant opportunity to expand sales, particularly in 
meat, dairy and wine.  New Zealand has also expressed 
concern over the US-Australia FTA disadvantaging 
New Zealand in that foreign investment might be 
diverted to Australia in preference over New Zealand. 
We have suggested that New Zealand should look at its 
restrictive regulations, tax regime and hostile attitude as 
reasons for foreign investment being diverted 
elsewhere. 
 
7. (C) Ministers:  Helen Clark, Prime Minister since 
1999 sidles up to the U.S. when convenient, otherwise, 
her comments toward the U.S. are openly hostile in 
tone and substance.  The former activist university 
professor is the key architect to the 1980s anti-nuclear 
policy and subsequent anti-nuclear legislation.  Her 
position, however, was significantly weakened in the 
2005 elections.  The PM should be told that a return to 
ANZUS is not necessarily a U.S. goal but a less ad hoc 
relationship might be of interest.  We do not want to 
bring nuclear-powered vessels into New Zealand but 
can't afford to concede policies to those who would 
restrict access by legislation.  We can work with an 
anti-nuclear policy but not with a law. 
 
-  Minister Goff:  Defense Minister Phil Goff is a Helen 
Clark loyalist and Labour Party stalwart.  He makes 
constant references to his two nephews serving as 
officers in the U.S. Army pretending to completely 
understand the American point of view but then, when 
convenient for political purposes, trashes U.S. policy or 
decision-making.  Mr. Goff is astute, savvy and 
politically experienced and is not easily rattled.  Like 
the Prime Minister, he argues for an FTA and states that 
NZ can have a frank and open dialogue with the United 
States...as long as discussions don't involve the nuclear 
issue. Goff is likely to push for further relaxation of US 
military restrictions on New Zealand, as he did during 
his first meeting with Ambassador McCormick.  He 
will point to New Zealand's participation with US 
forces in Proliferation Security Initiative exercises as 
well as our joint work in Afghanistan as proof that the 
current restrictions are outdated and counterproductive. 
He is not, however, likely to mention a recent NZ 
Defense Force briefing paper that told him U.S. 
restrictions were harming New Zealand's ability to 
remain interoperable with Australia's forces.   You may 
want to explain to Goff why our interests elsewhere in 
the region prevent us from lifting the restrictions, and 
why New Zealand's policies hurt these interests. 
 
-  Minister Peters:  Foreign Minister Winston Peters is a 
career politician who heads the New Zealand First 
Party.  Because of Labour Party's recent very narrow 
win in the election, and strong gains by the National 
Party, Helen Clark had to form a piecemeal government 
with odd bedfellows.  Winston Peters' assignment as 
Foreign Minister was one of the concessions made by 
Helen Clark to gain his party's support.  He is Foreign 
Minister OUTSIDE of the Cabinet, however, which still 
has many people in, and out of, New Zealand 
scratching their heads.  It could be a way of 
scapegoating Mr. Peters should the government fail and 
a new election is required.  With Labour Party holding 
on to the government with such a tenuous grasp, 
National Party is chomping at the bits, waiting to pick 
up the pieces (and the government) should a snap 
election be called.  An internal spat between any of the 
 
coalition partners could result in a non-support vote 
causing the government to fail leading to a snap 
election.  During your meeting, Peters is not likely to 
follow Goff's attempts to gloss over US-NZ differences, 
and may emphasize that he wants to improve bilateral 
relations.  Although PM Clark (and to some extent 
Goff) hold the real power on foreign affairs issues, 
Peters is a master debater who should not be written 
off. Ambassador McCormick and other Embassy 
officials are trying to reach out to him.  We recommend 
you tell him that U.S. officials would welcome hearing 
his ideas on how both sides can rebuild trust. 
Burnett