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Viewing cable 06SANJOSE227, ARIAS FIRST-ROUND VICTORY ASSURED ON FEBRUARY 5;

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SANJOSE227 2006-01-31 16:41 2011-03-17 18:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy San Jose
Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712620.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712631.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712622.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712633.aspx
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000227 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: ARIAS FIRST-ROUND VICTORY ASSURED ON FEBRUARY 5; 
HIS SUPPORT ESPECIALLY STRONG WITH THE OLD, THE LESS 
EDUCATED, AND THE LOW INCOME 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 193 
 
     B. SAN JOSE 180 
 
Summary 
-------- 
1.  The most scientific poll on the February 5 elections 
shows that Oscar Arias has twice the support of his closest 
rival, Otton Solis -- 49.6 percent to Solis's 25.4 percent. 
(Arias needs only 40 percent to avoid a runoff election.) 
Arias leads among all socioeconomic (education and income) 
groups except university-educated where Solis has the edge. 
Among low-income Costa Ricans, Arias has his biggest lead 
over Solis, 61 percent to 16 percent, which appears to refute 
Solis's claim that Arias is the "neoliberal" representative 
of the rich.  Libertarian candidate Otton Guevara's support 
seems to be faltering, now down to 11.8 percent; he has 22 
percent of first-time voters, however.  None of the remaining 
11 candidates scored better than 4 percent in the poll. 
While Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) is projected to 
win slightly less than a majority in the Legislative 
Assembly, it will be twice as strong as the only party likely 
to oppose his policies.  End summary. 
 
2.  From January 15 to 23, Unimer Research International 
interviewed 2,423 Costa Rican adults house to house 
throughout the country on their voting preferences.  The 
sample was considerably larger than competing polls (ref A), 
and the margin of error was 2.3 percent.  Of the sample, 42 
percent attended primary school, 34 percent secondary school, 
23 percent university, and 1 percent had no schooling at all. 
 In income, 33 percent were low, 60 percent middle, and 7 
percent high. 
 
Oscar Arias 
----------- 
3.  The polls showed Arias far ahead of his rivals with the 
support of 49.6 percent of probable voters.  (Only 40 percent 
is needed to avoid a runoff election.)  Moreover, Arias leads 
in all the demographic subgroups with one exception, the 
university-educated who prefer Otton Solis to Arias, 41 
percent to 32 percent.  Arias does better the older, less 
educated, and lower income the voter is.  Of voters who had a 
party preference (and 34.4 percent did not), Arias's National 
Liberation Party (PLN) had the most support at 35.5 percent. 
 
Otton Solis 
----------- 
4.  Otton Solis has the support of 25.4 percent of the 
voters, but his base is rather narrow socioeconomically and 
geographically, coming primarily from the better educated, 
higher income, and residents of the Central Valley (where San 
Jose is located).  The party he founded, the Citizens' Action 
Party (PAC), is preferred by 13.6 percent of the voters. 
Solis is the candidate of the left and anti-CAFTA-DR. 
 
Otto Guevara 
------------- 
5.  Libertarian Otto Guevara's support has showed a slight 
decline and is now at 11.8 percent.  At age 45, he is the 
youngest of the three major candidates, and the youth of the 
voters appears to be an important factor favoring his 
candidacy.  He wins 17 percent of voters under 30, but only 4 
percent of the voters over 50.  He has the support of 22 
percent of first-time voters.  Guevara's Libertarian Movement 
Party (ML), with the support of 6.2 percent of voters, is now 
tied for third place in voter sympathy with the Social 
Christian Unity Party (PUSC), which has governed Costa Rica 
for the last eight years. 
 
All the Rest 
------------ 
6.  The other 11 candidates appear to be fading as the 
election draws closer.  Their combined support is 13.2 
percent with the best of them, Antonio Alvarez Desanti, 
getting 3.8 percent. 
 
Legislative Assembly 
-------------------- 
7.  How effectively Oscar Arias will be able to govern will 
be largely dependent on the amount of support he has in the 
Legislative Assembly.  The Unimer poll shows that Arias's PLN 
is likely to obtain 28 seats, i.e., one short of a majority 
in the 57-member unicameral body.  The major opposition 
party, PAC, is forecast to win 15 seats.  The four other 
parties expected to win at least one seat, including 6 for ML 
and 6 for PUSC, are closer politically to the PLN than to 
PAC.  Arias therefore should have a fairly compliant 
legislature, one that should support CAFTA-DR. 
 
Comment 
------- 
8.  The most interesting result in this poll is the 
difference in voting preferences between high-income and 
low-income voters.  The candidates who are considered to be 
of the right, Oscar Arias and Otto Guevara, whom leftist 
candidate Otton Solis accuses of being "neoliberal" 
representatives of the rich and wanting to hand the country 
on a platter to multinationals, do better in the polls with 
low-income voters than with high-income voters.  In Arias's 
case, the difference (61 percent to 39 percent) is 
remarkable.  For Solis, the defender of state monopolies, the 
result is reversed; he has 16 percent support from low-income 
voters and 35 percent from high-income voters.  This seems to 
indicate that the statist economic policies that Solis 
advocates do not have the support of the poorest third of the 
population. 
LANGDALE