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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES213, Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06BUENOSAIRES213 | 2006-01-30 10:36 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Buenos Aires |
VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #0213/01 0301036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301036Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3253
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 2053
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000213
SIPDIS
PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND CHRIS KUSHLIS
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ
USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER
USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH AND ROBERT WHOLEY
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
the week ending January 27, 2006
--------------------------------------------- --------
Weekly Highlights
--------------------------------------------- --------
- The peso depreciated 0.7 percent against the USD,
closing at 3.07 ARP/USD.
- The GOA issues USD 312 million of Boden 2012 bonds
to Venezuela.
- GOA increases its efforts to reach price-restraint
agreements.
- Bondholder attachment of USD 105 million of BCRA
reserves awaits final ruling from U.S. Court of
Appeals.
- Three public hearings on electricity rates
suspended.
- HSBC purchases Banca Nazionale de Lavoro's
subsidiary in Argentina.
- Commentary of the Week: "We Don't Have to Play on
the Edge of the Abyss"
--------------------------------------------- --------
MARKETS
--------------------------------------------- --------
--------------------------------------------- --------
The peso depreciated 0.7 percent against the USD
during the week to close at 3.07 ARP/USD.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶1. The peso depreciated 0.7 percent versus the USD
this week, closing at 3.07 ARP/USD. This week's
depreciation is mainly explained by higher dollar
demand by banks as well as greater Central Bank (BCRA)
intervention in the FX market, where it purchased USD
200 million and EUR 10 million in the first four days
of the week. The BCRA's purchases of dollars averaged
USD 49 million per day this week, almost double the
USD 23 million daily average in the first three weeks
of January. The peso exchange rate has depreciated
0.7 percent since the beginning of year.
--------------------------------------------- --------
ECONOMY / FINANCE
--------------------------------------------- --------
--------------------------------------------- --------
The GOA issues USD 312 million of Boden 2012 bonds to
Venezuela.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶2. On January 24, the GOA published a resolution in
the Official Gazette, reopening the Boden 2012 for
another USD 312 million in bonds, after receiving a
bid from the Republic of Venezuela. In 2005, the GOV
purchased USD 1.6 billion of GOA bonds, which helped
the GOA cover its financial needs. The Venezuelan
Finance Minister has said that Venezuela is willing to
purchase USD 2.5-3.0 billion of GOA bonds in 2006.
This would help the BCRA rebuild its reserves after
the GOA used USD 9.5 billion in reserves to pay off
the IMF.
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA increases its efforts to reach price-restraint
agreements.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶3. The GOA signed a number of price-restraint
agreements this week with several suppliers of goods
and services. These agreements are expected to last
one year, but also are contingent on the evolution of
input prices and - in some cases - are subject to bi-
monthly monitoring of any changes in the economic
environment. Most of these agreements target food,
housecleaning products, toiletries and the tourist
sector (the latter is important now, during the summer
holidays here), and advance the GOA's efforts to
create a basket of basic goods and services with
controlled prices. Officials of the Ministry of
Economy and President Kirchner himself plan to
continue meeting with leading producers and retailers,
including major supermarket chains, to close new
agreements and broaden the range of products and
services subject to the agreements. However, the GOA
still faces stiff opposition in the beef industry to a
new price-restraint agreement that would keep prices
unchanged. On January 24, Chief of Cabinet Fernandez
threatened to increase beef export taxes (they are
currently at 15 percent) if beef prices continue to
increase. Reaching an agreement with the beef sector
is key to the GOA's anti-inflation effort because beef
prices constitute 4.5 percent of the basket of goods
used to measure consumer prices.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Bondholder attachment of USD 105 million in BCRA
reserves awaits ruling from U.S. Court of Appeals.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶4. On December 30, the investment funds EM Ltd. and
NML Capital Ltd. obtained an order temporarily
attaching USD 105 million in BCRA reserves held at the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). On January
12, Judge Thomas Griesa of the Federal Court for
Southern District of New York ruled in favor of the
BCRA and overturned the attachment order. According
to the GOA's attorney, the court accepted the GOA's
argument that the reserves are the property of the
BCRA, not the GOA, and therefore immune from
attachment and execution under the U.S. Foreign
Sovereign Immunities Act. However, the plaintiffs
have appealed Griesa's ruling to the U.S. Court of
Appeals and Judge Griesa therefore granted their
request that the funds remain frozen until the Appeals
Court issues its ruling. It is unclear when the U.S.
Court of Appeals will decide the appeal, but the BCRA
already is able to perform its normal foreign exchange
and monetary activities. Most analysts expect that
the Court of Appeals will uphold Griesa's ruling.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Fitch Ratings will raise Argentina's rating from
Restricted Default if it reaches an agreement with
holdouts.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶5. On January 25, a director of Fitch Ratings stated
that Fitch may upgrade Argentina from its "Restricted
Default" rating if the country makes a new debt offer
that achieves broad acceptance from holdout creditors.
A "Restricted Default" rating is for an entity that
has failed to make due payments on some, but not all,
of its financial obligations and is one step above the
"Default" rating.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Three public hearings on electricity rates were
suspended.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶6. On January 23, the ENRE - Argentina's electricity
regulator - postponed three public hearings on
potential increases in electrical rates for
residential users. The public hearings scheduled for
February and March were for one electricity
transporter (Transener) and two electricity
distributors (Distrocuyo and Edelap). Public hearings
are a legally required step before rates for
residential users can be increased. The utilities
reportedly were surprised by the suspensions since
they have been trying to re-negotiate their long-term
contracts for three years. ENRE said that it needed
more time to review the companies' tariff increase
proposals. It did not indicate when the public
hearings would be re-scheduled.
--------------------------------------------- --------
The GOA delays - for the third time - privatization of
the mail service.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶7. On January 25, the GOA delayed (for the third
time) the auction to re-privatize the mail service,
this time until June 30. In November 2003, the GOA
took over the postal service, Correo Argentino, when
the concessionaire - the Macri Group - did not pay the
royalties called for in the concession contract. At
that time, the GOA said that it would re-privatize the
service within six months. However, in June 2004,
President Kirchner created a state-owned mail company
("Correo Oficial de la Republica Argentina SA") to
operate the concession, and the GOA has delayed
repeatedly the planned re-privatization.
--------------------------------------------- --------
BCRA maintains Lebac interest rates; demand remains
concentrated at the short end of the curve.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶8. The BCRA received bids of ARP 1.9 billion in its
January 24 Lebac auction, well above the ARP 1.3
billion announced amount and the ARP 1.6 billion in
Lebacs that came due during the week. Investors
concentrated 70 percent of their bids for ARP Lebacs
at the short-end of the curve (less than 3 months).
Like the last four auctions, the BCRA was unable to
roll over its maturities, accepting bids for ARP 1.6
billion. The yield on the 49 -day and the 70-day
Lebac remained unchanged at 6.76 percent and 6.90
percent, respectively. The yield on the 105-day Lebac
reached 6.90 percent. Lebacs for maturities of more
than 3 months were withdrawn yet again due to lack of
interest.
--------------------------------------------- --------
President Kirchner says unemployment fell to 10.0-10.2
percent in the fourth quarter of 2005.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶9. On January 25, President Kirchner announced that
the unemployment rate fell to 10.0-10.2 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2005, down slightly from 11.1
percent in the third quarter. INDEC is scheduled to
release the official unemployment data on February 28.
BCRA President Redrado also predicted that the
unemployment rate fell to 10 percent at the end of
2005 and forecasted that unemployment would fall to
the single-digit level in 2006. Unemployment peaked
at 21 percent in May 2002.
--------------------------------------------- --------
HSBC purchases Banca Nazionale del Lavoro's subsidiary
in Argentina.
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¶10. HSBC Bank announced it would purchase Banca
Nazionale del Lavoro's (BNL) subsidiary in Argentina
for USD 155 million. With the acquisition, HSBC will
double in size and will jump to seventh place by size
of credit portfolio. HSBC's Argentine business has
traditionally been oriented to corporations, and the
BNL purchase will expand its customer base to
individuals and small companies. HSBC will absorb the
1,800 employees from BNL.
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Provinces ask the GOA for funds and renegotiation of
provincial debts.
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¶11. On January 24, Ambito Financiero reported that
many provinces are waiting for Minister of Economy
Miceli to respond to their demands to restructure
provincial debt owed to the GOA and to receive more
GOA funds (either money promised during the
congressional campaign last October or to pay GOA debt
to the provinces). Provincial debt totals ARP 75.2
billion and is adjusted by CER (an inflation-linked
index). 70 percent of this debt (or ARP 52.7 billion)
is owed to the GOA. Some provinces have proposed a
provincial debt restructuring to the GOA, including
maturity extension and/or principal reductions that
would be used to fund fiduciary trusts to fund
provincial infrastructure developments. Some of the
fund requests of the provinces include: ARP 65 million
for La Rioja province to cover its fiscal deficit and
increases in provincial public sector wages; ARP 5
million owed to Mendoza province for the maintenance
of federal prisoners; and ARP 78 million promised to
Mendoza province by the Federal Housing Plan to
construct 4,500 houses.
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U.S. Appeals Court rules in favor of Mendoza's
province debt restructuring.
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¶12. The U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals rejected
an appeal by Greylock Capital seeking to overturn a
New York District Court approval of Mendoza province's
2004 debt restructuring. On January 23, lawyers for
the province announced that the Appeals Court ruled in
favor of upholding the District Court's decision on
the fairness of the terms of the debt exchange. The
Appeals Court agreed with the province that the
contract regulating the debt exchange allowed for a
simple majority of bondholders to accept the
province's use of special clauses to repeal its
sovereign immunity. Greylock had contended that
passage of such amendments required unanimous consent.
Mendoza province achieved a 65 percent participation
rate in its October 2004 restructuring of its USD 250
million Aconcagua bond debt. The debt exchange
extended the maturity of the bonds by eleven years,
to 2018, and reduced the nominal interest rate from
10 percent to 5.5 percent, implying a net present
value reduction of 50 percent.
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Commentary of the Week: "We Don't Have to Play on the
Edge of the Abyss" by Aldo Abram, an economist and
director of the Exante consulting firm. [Note:
Translated and abridged with permission of the author
from an editorial published in La Nacion on January
¶23. End Note.]
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¶13. When we used 34 percent of the Central Bank's
reserves and weakened its ability to confront a
crisis, many argued that it wasn't important because
they didn't expect any crisis. But it should be said
that crises don't announce their arrival and that, in
fact, the probability of a more complicated
international environment is growing.
¶14. At the beginning of 2005 [the Federal Reserve]
appeared to have gained control over the depreciation
of the dollar. But ... in the second half the dollar
again experienced strong pressure to depreciate. The
world began to seek protection in gold ... Today, its
value is above USD 550, which is not a good sign, as
gold only reaches such high levels before crises or
surges of inflation.
¶15. They say that there is no worse blind person than
someone who does not want to see. To follow inflation
trends, the majority of analysts look at the evolution
of consumer price indices that exclude food and
energy, which are very volatile. East Asian demand
for these commodities has increased greatly and, as a
consequence, so have their prices. People have
limited incomes. When something in their consumption
basket rises in price, they reduce their demand for
other goods until their prices adjust and accommodate
their lower spending capacity. Thus, the only way
that prices for other goods and services won't go down
is if there is a generalized price increase, i.e., if
inflation generated by the Central Bank allows a
relative adjustment of prices as all prices increase.
¶16. Given that analysts are removing from the CPI
those components that are increasing for structural
reasons and constitute the major weight in the
indicator, they are measuring price tendencies with
reference to the remaining products, those that have
little margin to increase. Conclusion: they don't see
the inflation that is indicated by the total index and
by the dollar's loss of value.
¶17. The Fed will not be able to ignore a new bout of
inflation. Thus, in the second quarter, its reference
rates could increase by a half percentage point and
reach levels not much below 6 percent. The problem
with this is that, each time this has happened before,
Argentina has suffered a serious crisis. This is
because capital abandons the riskiest economies - like
ours - in an unstable international environment.
¶18. In the last few years, the depreciation of the
dollar has favored us by raising the prices of the
commodities that we export. Also, the government
could maintain a "high exchange rate" with the peso
devaluing along with the dollar. But in the scenario
I've laid out, the Fed's monetary contraction will
have as its objective an increase in the dollar's
value, which will mean that the winds of fortune will
change direction.
¶19. Before paying the IMF, the relation between
international reserves and financial instruments of
the Central Bank gave an exchange rate of ARP 3.5 per
dollar. That meant that, in the event of a crisis, if
it had wished to, the Central Bank could have twisted
the market's arm before reaching that exchange rate.
Now, the relationship is ARP 5.2 per dollar, which
implies that the Central Bank's chances of success in
preventing a run are at exchange rates above ARP 4 per
dollar, at least.
¶20. For this reason, it would be advisable for the
Central Bank to give priority to rebuilding its
international reserves, minimizing its emission of
pesos and, because of this, reducing domestic
inflation. It should do this basically through
Central Bank debt instruments, fiscal savings and
government bond issuance. Then, in the event of an
international crisis, the social and economic cost
that we will have to pay will be low, if the
government understands that the best way to confront
it is to maintain fiscal solvency, control inflation
and allowing the dollar to rise (for certain, selling
reserves). If not, we will, unfortunately, repeat old
and sad histories from our past. [Note: We reproduce
selected articles by local experts for the benefit of
our readers. The opinions expressed are those of the
authors, not of the Embassy. End Note.]
GUTIERREZ