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Viewing cable 06ANKARA65, TURKEY WORRIES ABOUT RELIANCE ON RUSSIA NATURAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ANKARA65 2006-01-05 14:26 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara
VZCZCXRO3447
RR RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHMOS
DE RUEHAK #0065/01 0051426
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051426Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2404
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY 2128
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 1267
RUEHBM/AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST 0763
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5285
RUEHSF/AMEMBASSY SOFIA 0931
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 2916
RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 1137
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH//
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 9477
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 0202
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000065 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK 
DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR ALSO FOR DAS BRYZA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET ENRG ETRD TU RU
SUBJECT: TURKEY WORRIES ABOUT RELIANCE ON RUSSIA NATURAL 
GAS 
 
ANKARA 00000065  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please Handle Accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Turkey did not experience any recent 
reduction in supplies from Russia via Ukraine, but 
relying on Russia for 65% of its natural gas -- more than 
most EU countries -- Turkey watched the Russia-Ukraine 
gas face-off with great concern.  According to Turkey's 
pipeline company BOTAS, the Russia-Ukraine skirmish 
underlined the risk of significant dependence on a single 
supplier -- particularly Russia.  Moreover, it will push 
Turkey to pursue diversification of energy type and 
source (Iraq, Egypt, Azerbaijan), and will also feed 
irresistible pressure to engage in gas trade with Iran 
(including transit of Iranian gas through Turkey to 
Europe).  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) In a January 4 meeting, a senior BOTAS official 
told us that the one-day New Year's turndown of Russian 
natural gas shipped via the Ukraine did not affect 
supplies to Turkey.  Two-thirds of Turkey's gas from 
Russia transits the Ukraine; the (growing) balance is 
shipped via the newer Blue Stream pipeline under the 
Black Sea. 
 
3.  (SBU) On the same subject, Energy Minister Guler made 
the following points in a January 3 statement to the 
press: 
 
--  Turkey had received assurances from Russia and 
    Ukraine that its supplied would not be interrupted. 
    Turkey pays market price to Russia.  (Note: Russia 
    has been a reliable supplier to Turkey and they have 
    had recent high-level discussions on oil, gas, and 
    other projects.) 
 
--  Turkey will accelerate development of its natural gas 
    storage capacity.  The World Bank is assisting 
    construction of a 3 BCM facility under the Salt Lake 
    near Ankara and Turkey is completing a 1 BCM storage 
    project in a depleted field near the Sea of Marmara. 
 
--  Turkey will pursue diversification of energy sources, 
    such as nuclear power plants. 
 
--  Turkey will seek diversification of energy and gas 
    sources (for its own use and transit to Europe), such 
    as Azerbaijan Shah Deniz (end of 2006) and potential 
    from other neighboring countries, including Iran. 
 
--------------------------- 
Transit to Europe - Nabucco 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  Focusing on transit potential of natural gas 
to Europe, the BOTAS official stressed the potential for 
Turkey to develop projects sourcing gas from Egypt, Iraq, 
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and -- inevitably - 
- Iran.  He described the Turkey-Greece inter-connector 
(underway with Greek state firm DEPA) with a link to 
Italy (private Edison Electric) under negotiation.  The 
official thought the five-country Nabucco project to 
Austria would gain momentum from the recent crisis, which 
seriously put in question Russia's reliability.  The 
Nabucco project, he believed, would depend on European 
companies developing supply contracts with source 
countries and that the project was in effect in 
competition with the Baltic pipeline (to Germany, 
supported by Gazprom and Ruhrgaz). 
 
 
ANKARA 00000065  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
-------------- 
Iraq Potential 
-------------- 
 
5.  (SBU)  The BOTAS official was optimistic about 
natural gas potential in northern Iraq.  He cited pre- 
1990 work done by Turkish firms BOTAS, TPAO, and TEKFEN, 
working with Shell, Gaz de France, and ENI, to develop a 
significant non-associated field near Kirkuk.  The 
companies abandoned the project after the embargo on 
Iraq, but are all interested in rejuvenating the project 
when conditions are right.  The BOTAS official claimed 
that 11 BCM of Iraqi (associated) natural gas is flared 
each year, and added that Iraq's reserves generally 
consisted of high quality natural gas. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Iran - Giant Reserves, but Difficult Partner 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  With respect to Iran, the BOTAS official said 
that Iran's sizeable gas reserves presented a compelling 
opportunity and challenge, emphasizing that Iran was an 
extremely difficult partner and bargainer.  He noted that 
Turkey's existing pipeline and contract with Iran (6 BCM) 
faced difficulties over price, quality, and arbitrary cut- 
off.  In fact, the issue is now in international 
arbitration.  The official said Iran is focused all-or- 
nothing on gaining transit through Turkey to Europe, and 
it has been hard for Turkey to resist reciprocal pressure 
from Europe.  He noted that Iran was one of several 
sources for the Nabucco project.  Echoing comments from 
other GOT officials over the years, he said Turkey would 
prefer to work with other countries, but Iran's 
prodigious supply -- and Europe's demand and interest -- 
would in the long term be irresistible.  The official 
added that the Iran state oil company was a partner in 
Shah Deniz and was contributing to slowing down decision 
making on phase 2. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Comment: In the dangerous game of chicken 
between Russia and the Ukraine, Ukraine appears to have 
decided to make its point on the lines feeding central 
Europe, and the crisis did not have an impact on the 
separate lines feeding Turkey and the southern Balkans. 
Russia has been a reliable source for Turkey (showing 
some flexibility on helping Turkey manage its surplus of 
take-or-pay gas contracts), but - like for Europe - the 
message of the risk of over-reliance on Russia is clear. 
Turkey has reached out to the U.S. for help in fostering 
alternative sources for gas to Europe, such as Iraq and 
Central Asia, to counter the inevitability of Iran 
seeking outlet of its huge reserves. 
MCELDOWNEY