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Viewing cable 05CAIRO9379, TELECOM EGYPT: STABLE STOCK, GUARANTEED FUTURE?

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05CAIRO9379 2005-12-20 14:04 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Cairo
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 009379 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA AND EB/CIP 
USTR FOR SAUMS/AUGEROT/MCHALE/NEUREITER 
USAID FOR ANE/MEA MCCLOUD 
COMMERCE FOR 4520/ITA/MAC/ANESA/TALAAT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ECPS EINT EINV ETRD KGIT EG
SUBJECT: TELECOM EGYPT: STABLE STOCK, GUARANTEED FUTURE? 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 06163 
 
     B. CAIRO 09080 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Following the privatization of 20% of Telecom Egypt 
(TE) (reftels), share prices have stabilized, diminishing 
fears of a quick sell-off.  Sherif Karara, Managing Director 
of EFG Holdings, and TE Chairman Akil Beshir recently told 
Econoff that TE has taken measures to combat losses from the 
approaching end of its monopoly.  They implied also that the 
GOE may be guaranteeing TE's continued predominance in the 
marketplace.  End summary. 
 
------------------------ 
TE stock on an even keel 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU) Almost one week into trading of TE shares on the 
Cairo-Alexandria Stock Exchange (CASE), the price of TE stock 
had leveled off to LE 20-21/share, following a two-day slide 
from LE 30.01/share to LE 19.85/share as experienced 
investors sold their holdings.  The current value is 
considered realistic by local experts, who now anticipate the 
price per share may reach a maximum of LE 25 this month, and 
around LE 30 over the medium term.  Fears of a mass sell-off 
did not materialize, as individuals new to the market held on 
to the shares in anticipation of future profitability; Sherif 
Karara, in a meeting early last week, told Econoff he did not 
expect a significant downturn in TE shares until at least 
late 2006.  Although trade on TE shares contributed to a 
boost in total market capitalization to LE 441 billion at the 
end of last week, compared to LE 424.6 billion the preceding 
week, TE trading has not had a significant impact on market 
direction. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Countermeasures against the loss of monopoly 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Fears of TE faltering when its monopoly over 
international telecommunications gateways ends this month are 
inflated, according to Karara.  He noted, for instance, that 
despite possible competition on the international side, 
domestic tariff increases could help maintain TE's overall 
financial health.  According to Karara, local call tariffs in 
Egypt were subsidized at around 2 piasters/minute, and a 
raise in rates to a mere 4 piasters would allow TE to break 
even on domestic sales - if the GOE "had the courage" to 
implement an unpopular subsidy reduction.  Several days after 
Econoff's meeting with Karara, TE in fact announced it would 
revise domestic tariffs on the basis of actual cost, in 
coordination with the National Telecommunication Regulatory 
Authority (NTRA).  (Comment: Karara may have made his 
statement to Econoff with the benefit of inside information 
on the coming announcement.  TE's failure to provide a 
timeline with the low-profile announcement underscores 
Karara's doubt over the GOE's determination to follow 
through.  End comment.) 
 
4.  (SBU) Akil Beshir explained to Econoff that TE had 
already taken measures to lock up international profits, as 
well.  TE has signed exclusive agreements through 2007 with 
Egypt's two mobile providers, MobiNil and Vodafone, for use 
of TE gateways, thereby securing 55-60% of international call 
revenues; Beshir noted that TE was working on similar 
agreements with European operators at the other end of 
international calls.  He asserted that, given these measures 
and others, and general growth in the telecommunications 
market, TE international call revenues could remain stable or 
even increase slightly. 
 
5.  (SBU) Comment: We suspect Beshir's confidence indicates 
that the GOE has already assured TE it will not lose 
profitability at least through 2007.  Certainly, NTRA could 
regulate market entry in such a way as to guarantee that TE 
remains on top.  Similarly, TE has been rumored as a 
candidate for a much-anticipated third mobile license, and 
the GOE could tailor the RFP so as to favor TE, which would 
then drop its 25.5% share of Vodafone in exchange for the 
more profitable third provider business.  End comment. 
 
 
JONES