Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 05PRETORIA3476, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #05PRETORIA3476.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05PRETORIA3476 2005-08-26 13:43 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Pretoria
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 003476 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S/KGAITHER; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA 
USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND 
TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL 
USTR FOR COLEMAN 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER 
           August 26 2005 ISSUE 
 
 1. Summary.  Each week, AmEmbassy Pretoria publishes an 
 economic newsletter based on South African press reports. 
 Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the 
 opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's 
 newsletter are: 
 -  Manufacturing Leads 2nd Quarter GDP Growth; 
 -  Oil Prices Accelerate July Inflation but Still Within 
Targets; 
 -  Producer Prices Also Increase More than Expectations; 
 -  Survey Shows a Slow Improvement in Poverty; and 
 -  Five Consortiums Chosen as Finalists to Build Power 
 Plants. 
 End Summary. 
 
 MANUFACTURING LEADS 2ND QUARTER GDP GROWTH 
 ------------------------------------------ 
 
 2.  South Africa's economy grew at a faster pace in the 
 second quarter 2005, primarily due to manufacturing growth 
 of 7.3 percent.  South Africa's real gross domestic 
 product (GDP) at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter 
 (q/q), seasonally annualized and adjusted (saa) increased 
 by 4.8 percent in the second quarter of 2005, compared to 
 3.5 percent growth in the first quarter.  The 4.8 percent 
 growth rate exceeded expectations, with the consensus 
 forecast at 4.4 percent, and put the South African 
 government's 2005 GDP forecast of 4.3 percent within 
 target.  The manufacturing sector was the main engine of 
 second quarter growth, expanding by 7.3 percent on a 
 seasonally adjusted and annualized basis compared with a 
 first quarter decline of 1.9 percent.  Sectors 
 contributing to the second quarter growth include:  the 
 manufacturing industry (accounting for 1.2 percent); 
 wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants 
 industry and finance, real estate, and business services 
 industry (0.7 percent each); transport, storage and 
 communication industry (0.6 percent) and agriculture, 
 forestry and fishing; general government services and 
 personal services (0.3 percent each).  The seasonally 
 adjusted real value added by the non-agricultural 
 industries increased by 4.7 percent during second quarter 
 following an increase of 3.5 percent in the first quarter 
 of 2005.  Manufacturing is the second largest sector of 
 the economy, accounting for 16.4 percent of GDP.  The 
 finance sector is the largest sector and is responsible 
 for 18.6 percent of GDP.  On a saa q/q basis, real GDP 
 last posted negative growth in the 3rd quarter 1998 (0.9 
 percent decline), since then there have been 11 out of 28 
 quarters of growth at 4 percent or above.  Source: 
 Reuters, I-Net Bridge, and StatsSA Release P0441, August 
 23; Business Day, Business Report, August 24. 
 
 3.  Comment.  StatsSA calculates GDP using the production 
 and income approach; the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) 
 compiles GDP using the expenditure approach.  The expected 
 release date of the 2nd quarter 2005 SARB Quarterly 
 Bulletin is September 22, where expenditure (consumption, 
 investment and government spending) components of GDP are 
 released.  The StatsSA GDP release focuses on industrial 
 production sectors explaining GDP growth.  A recent 
 Standard Bank study describes industrial sector growth 
 prospects over the next five years and the structural 
 shifts in the South African economy.  Over the past four 
 decades, the South African economy has shifted from growth 
 driven primarily by agriculture and mining to growth 
 driven by wholesale and retail trade, tourism, transport, 
 communications, and services.  According to Standard Bank 
 forecasts, high growth in manufacturing, business 
 services, transport and communication, and wholesale and 
 retail trade will generate an average annual GDP growth of 
 4 percent over the next five years.  End comment. 
 
 OIL PRICES ACCELERATE JULY INFLATION BUT STILL WITHIN 
 TARGETS 
 --------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
 4.  CPIX (consumer prices minus mortgage costs) increased 
 4.2 percent in July, up from June's 3.5 percent increase, 
 chiefly due to a 32 rand cent/liter increase in gasoline 
 prices.  July consumer prices increased 3.4 percent (y/y) 
 compared to June's increase of 2.8 percent.  July's 
 increase in targeted inflation (CPIX) was higher than the 
 consensus forecast of 3.9 percent and if oil prices 
 continue to escalate, future interest rate reductions 
 would become less probable.  Transport costs accounted for 
 30 percent of July's increase, although some of the 
 pressure on consumer prices will not affect August 
 inflation.  New surveys of rental, electricity and water 
 costs completed in July accounted for 40 percent (30 
 percent attributed to housing and 10 percent to fuel and 
 power) of the 4.2 increase in CPIX.  CPIX is still well 
 within the 3-6 percent targeted range and oil prices 
 remain the main contributor to a possible increase in 
 August's inflation.  If oil prices continue to escalate, 
 most forecasters expect interest rates to remain unchanged 
 for the rest of 2005.  Prices of services increased faster 
 than goods (6.1 percent vs 3.4 percent) and prices for the 
 lower expenditure groups increased slower than the prices 
 faced by the higher expenditure groups.  Source: 
 Investec, CPIX Update; Standard Bank, CPI Alert; StatsSA 
 Release P0141.1; August 24. 
 
 PRODUCER PRICES ALSO INCREASE MORE THAN EXPECTATIONS 
 --------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 5.  The July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.6 
 percent (y/y) higher than a Reuters poll of economic 
 forecasts of 3.3 percent.  PPI, which tends to lead 
 consumer inflation by a couple of months, rose by an 
 annual rate of 2.3 percent in June.  July domestic and 
 imported goods prices increased 3.0 percent and 5.2 
 percent, respectively, compared to June's increase of 1.9 
 percent and 3.4 percent.  The higher imported goods price 
 reflects the impact of higher world oil prices.  The 
 prices of petroleum and coal products more than doubled, 
 while prices of agricultural, paper, basic metals and 
 tobacco products also showed a higher July price increase 
 compared to the previous month.  The last month where 
 overall producer prices declined was April 2004; since 
 then, producer prices have increased an average of 1.6 
 percent y/y.  Since May 2005, producer prices have 
 increased over 2.3 percent, signaling possible future 
 increases in consumer prices.  Source:  Business Day, 
 Reuters, StatsSA Release P0142.1, August 25. 
 
 SURVEY SHOWS A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN POVERTY 
 ------------------------------------------ 
 
 6.  A recent All Media Products Surveys (AMPS) survey 
 demonstrated that there has been dramatic change in the 
 income shares of different races since 1994.  From 1993 to 
 2002, black Africans increased their share of the top 10 
 percent of household income, from under 10 percent just 
 before 1994 to 23 percent in the second half of 2002. 
 "Coloureds" (a distinct South African racial category) 
 also increased their share slightly, while the white share 
 fell sharply from nearly 80 percent to 63 percent. 
 However, the rate of change slowed after 2002.  Coloured 
 people continued to advance post-2002, but the shares of 
 all other groups remained static, and may even have fallen 
 slightly among black Africans.  According to the AMPS 
 survey, the following trends emerge:  (1) a slight but 
 significant decline in black poverty is occurring, due 
 largely to the expansion of social grants; (2) there is a 
 modest but significant expansion of the numbers of blacks 
 in the "not so poor" category of R1,400 ($220 using 6.4 
 rands per dollar) to R4,000 ($625) per month; (3) abject 
 or severe poverty among coloured people is roughly half of 
 what it is among blacks and impacting less than 10 percent 
 of Indians and less than 5 percent of whites; (4) the 
 lower middle class among blacks (R4,000 - R12,000 per 
 month) has not expanded over the two years; and (5) the 
 expansion of the categories of relative wealth of R12,000 
 and more per month has been more rapid among coloureds, 
 Indians and whites than it has been among blacks.  The 
 semiannual AMPS is one of the largest annual measures of 
 income and other socio-economic patterns provided by the 
 All Media Products Surveys (AMPS) of the South African 
 Advertising Research Foundation, using large and fully 
 representative samples of 25,000.  The purpose of these 
 surveys is to estimate readership patterns and to relate 
 them to basic social and economic characteristics, 
 including household income per month.  Source:  Pretoria 
 News, August 23. 
 
 7.  Comment.  The AMPS survey is the only South African 
 expenditure survey conducted each year.  The survey and 
 results are private.  Official expenditure studies will 
 use the StatsSA expenditure surveys, where both results 
 and methodology are readily available.  However, the 
 official surveys are only conducted every five years and 
 their changing methodologies make comparisons over time 
 difficult.  End comment. 
 
   FRAZER