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Viewing cable 05MANILA3677, COUNTING OF VOTES CONTINUES IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05MANILA3677 2005-08-09 07:54 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Manila
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 003677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/PD, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, DS, S/CT 
USAID FOR CDOWNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KISL ASEC KPAO RP
SUBJECT: COUNTING OF VOTES CONTINUES IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS 
REGION IN MINDANAO 
 
REF: A. OPS CENTER - MANILA 08/08/05 TELCON 
 
     B. MANILA 3655 
     C. MANILA 3611 
     D. MANILA 3477 
     E. MANILA 3435 
 
1.  (U) This message is Sensitive But Unclassified -- Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
2.  (SBU) Summary:  Officials continue to count votes cast in 
the August 8 Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 
elections.  Results are due to be released within the next 24 
hours.  Only minor problems have been reported during the 
counting phase, and the law and order situation continues to 
be largely peaceful so far.  While the GRP has praised the 
conduct of the elections, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front 
(MILF), a Muslim insurgent group, has sharply criticized 
them.  Overall, the elections appear to have gone relatively 
well, although the risk of fraud and violence remains. 
Suggested "if asked" press guidance developed by Mission is 
attached in Para 11.  End Summary. 
 
------------------ 
Counting Continues 
------------------ 
 
3. (SBU) Election officials continue to tally ballots from 
the August 8 ARMM elections at several centralized counting 
centers (see ref b).  The Commission on Elections (COMELEC), 
an independent GRP body, is overseeing the counting process. 
As part of this effort, COMELEC continues to coordinate the 
movement of all ballots cast in Maguindinao and Lanao del Sur 
Provinces to counting centers located in Cotabato City, while 
ballots from the three island provinces of Basilan, Sulu, and 
Tawi Tawi will be counted locally.  COMELEC extended voting 
until noon on August 9 in some limited areas, such as 
Sumisip, Basilan Province, where it declared a "failure of 
election" due to alleged "ballot snatching" (see ref b). 
 
4.  (SBU) So far, COMELEC has not announced results for any 
of the races (governor, vice governor, or the 24-member 
Regional Assembly).  It has indicated that it plans to do so 
within the next 24 hours, though that timeframe may slip. 
COMELEC has not yet released voter turnout figures.  Initial 
reports indicate that turnout in some ARMM areas was lower 
than in the 2001 elections due to heavy rains, residents 
being unable to leave work to go to vote, and perhaps some 
apathy among residents.  At the same time, other areas are 
reporting solid turnouts.  (Note:  Philippine elections 
usually generate a high turnout: the 2001 ARMM elections had 
82 percent turnout, while the May 2004 Philippine General 
Elections had 77 percent turnout.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------------ 
Some Reports of Irregularities 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (U) The elections appear to have been fairly orderly, 
though there were some problems.  Media sources reported 
several isolated incidents of irregularities in voting on 
August 8, such as:  the distribution of flyers inside 
precincts; "operators" for candidates handing out cash at 
polling places; and failure to use indelible ink to preclude 
double-voting. 
 
6.  (SBU) Mission observers in the Cotabato area also 
witnessed some apparent irregularities and non-transparent 
procedures at canvassing centers they visited.  Several 
Mission observers, for example, reported that officials hid 
tally sheets when they arrived at the centers.  One observer 
saw an official apparently marking votes on a tally sheet 
that did not correspond to the physical counting of ballots. 
Additionally, another Mission observer noted that the voter 
turnout figures he was seeing in the counting centers he 
visited (more than 95 percent) were seemingly implausibly 
higher than what he had observed at polling places in the 
area on August 8. 
 
7.  (U) Despite this clutch of seeming irregularities, 
candidates generally have not yet begun to bicker over 
charges of fraud, though this might occur once results are 
announced downstream.  In particular, candidates in the most 
high-profile race -- that for governor -- have been 
relatively restrained while the counting continues. 
 
---------- 
GRP Upbeat 
---------- 
 
8.  (SBU) The GRP is generally upbeat about the unfolding 
situation.  Government and military officials have praised 
the elections for being calm and orderly.  In an August 8 
press statement, President Arroyo vowed, "Whoever is elected 
will get the full support of the President and the national 
government," while Malacanang spokesman Ignacio Bunye hailed 
what he characterized as a "generally safe and secure" 
election day.  COMELEC Chairman Benjamin Abalos was quoted as 
stating that the elections were "unusually peaceful and the 
cleanest and freest so far."  Abalos allowed that there had 
been some minor problems.  Brigadier General Ben Dolorfino, 
the head of the military task force assigned to secure the 
elections, confirmed that there were no reports of casualties 
from election-related violence, kidnappings, or terrorist 
acts.  He noted that there had been some minor incidents 
involving violence (see ref b).  Lanao del Sur Governor Aleem 
Bashier Manalao, a well-known Muslim official, commended 
COMELEC, the military, and the police for successfully 
coordinating efforts during the election timeframe. 
 
-------------------------- 
Insurgent Group Lashes Out 
-------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) The insurgent group MILF has lashed out at the 
elections.  Eid Kabalu, a MILF spokesmen, said the group 
boycotted what he described as the "meaningless" and 
"fraudulent" ARMM elections.  He said the MILF would rather 
work for "genuine" self-government.  The MILF rejected the 
ARMM, which he said had failed to end the conflict in 
Mindanao.  Kabalu made no remarks indicating that his group's 
negative view of the elections would impact the peace track 
with the GRP.  (Note:  The GRP and MILF have held eight 
rounds of talks.  They were supposed to meet again in late 
July, but the meeting was postponed, apparently at the behest 
of the Malaysian facilitators. -- See ref e.  End Note.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Overall, the elections appear to have gone 
relatively well, especially given the fears that there might 
be widespread chaos and violence.  It is too soon for the GRP 
to pat itself on the back just yet because the risk of fraud 
and violence remains.  For example, as noted, tensions could 
easily flare once results are announced and defeated 
candidates make the inevitable claims of fraud.  The GRP -- 
through COMELEC and its large security force presence -- 
appears ready for eventualities, although inter-ethnic and 
clan-based relations in the ARMM are tangled and can erupt 
into violence quickly.  Mission observation teams, which are 
wrapping up their efforts, appear to have helped send a 
strong message to residents of the ARMM that the 
international community remains very interested in their 
situation, while underscoring the need for clean elections. 
End Comment. 
 
------------------------- 
"If Asked" Press Guidance 
------------------------- 
 
11.  (U) Mission has developed the following suggested "if 
asked" press guidance: 
 
"We commend the citizens of the Autonomous Region in Muslim 
Mindanao (ARMM) for exercising their democratic rights to 
vote in the August 8 elections.  We also commend efforts by 
civilian, military, and police officials to ensure a safe 
environment for the elections.  We pledge to continue to work 
through the International Foundation for Election Systems 
(IFES) to strengthen voter education and civil society 
participation in the electoral process." 
 
(Further, if asked) 
 
Q:  Do you view the elections as credible or as truly free 
and fair? 
 
A:  This is a judgment for the people of the Philippines to 
make, notably through the Commission on Elections (COMELEC), 
the COMELEC-accredited Parish Pastoral Council for 
Responsible Voting (PPCRV), and other civil society 
organizations. 
 
 
JOHNSON