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Viewing cable 05RANGOON688, A BANNER YEAR FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN BURMA?

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05RANGOON688 2005-06-08 02:31 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Rangoon
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000688 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EINV ECON PGOV BM
SUBJECT: A BANNER YEAR FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN BURMA? 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 327 
     B. RANGOON 43 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Despite no improvement to Burma's 
investment climate, approved FDI last year increased by the 
largest amount in five years.  The new apparent mini-boom is 
largely due to Chinese interest in Burma's questionable 
onshore oil and gas reserves, though new Thai and Japanese 
investment also flowed in.  Unregistered foreign investment 
in Burma's rich forests and mines will continue.  However, a 
new anti-foreigner policy for energy sector investment should 
ensure Burma's FDI growth is a one-off occurrence.  End 
summary. 
 
The Chinese are Coming 
 
2. (SBU) Despite continued economic problems in Burma, and no 
improvement in the country's investment climate (ref B), 
unpublished GOB figures indicate approved foreign investment 
in FY 2004-05 (April-March) was at its highest level in five 
years.  The GOB data set total new approved investment at 
$158.28 mln, raising the total level of approved investment 
since 1988 to $7.8 bln.  These numbers do not necessarily 
reflect actual investment, nor do they change when divestment 
occurs. 
 
3. (SBU) The total approved FDI, and the number of new 
approved investments, in FY 2004-05 were the highest since FY 
2000-01.  The main reason for these increases was a 
surprising spike in interest in Burma's heretofore 
unappetizing onshore oil and gas sector (ref A).  This sector 
attracted nine new approved investments worth $142.5 mln. 
Other winners in FY 2004-05 were the mining (four projects, 
$6 mln) and manufacturing (one project, $3.5 mln) sectors. 
 
4. (SBU) The surprising expansion in FDI came primarily from 
China.  With 11 new projects planned or underway, the PRC's 
official approved investment in Burma rose from $67 mln to 
$193.5 mln during the last fiscal year.  Two of China's major 
energy firms (Sinopec and CNOOC) signed agreements to explore 
and, perhaps, develop a handful of onshore oil and gas 
blocks, and one Chinese mining outfit inked a $6 mln 
investment in mineral exploration.  Though prominent Chinese 
investments are approved by the GOB and recorded, the amount 
of Chinese investment in Burma is still vastly underestimated 
by official data as much of it is informal investment in 
border regions or made by Chinese citizens who have illegally 
obtained a Burmese citizen's national identity card. 
 
5. (SBU) The Thais also expanded their approved investment in 
Burma with four new projects worth $29 mln (mostly in oil and 
gas, with PTTEP exploring new offshore blocks, but also in 
hotels and tourism and manufacturing).  The Japanese also 
made $2.7 mln worth of new investments, but only in 
previously approved real estate projects. 
 
The Rankings Now 
 
6. (SBU) At the end of FY 2004-05, the FDI rankings remain 
pretty much the same as the prior FY.  Based on the value of 
approved investments since 1988, Singapore remains number 
one, followed by the UK, Thailand, and Malaysia.  Hong Kong 
has jumped to fifth (replacing the United States whose 
numbers come primarily from the pre-1997 investment by 
Unocal) due to a transfer of assets held on paper for a 
decade by Texaco to the Hong Kong subsidiary of Malaysian 
energy giant Petronas (which now operates the offshore 
Yetagun gas field).  France remains in sixth place, followed 
by the United States, Indonesia, the Netherlands and Japan. 
Despite the new PRC investment, China is only eleventh in 
official total approved investment. 
 
Comment: Biting the Hand 
 
7. (SBU) Though Burma's FDI is still extremely low by any 
standard, the significant increase in FY 2004-05 is a boon 
both to the GOB's wallets and prestige.  Though there are no 
figures, we believe that informal foreign investment in the 
timber, mining, and fisheries sectors is also bringing cash 
into the Burmese economy.  That said, the GOB is doing 
nothing to improve the climate for legal FDI; quite the 
contrary.  In a typical move, the GOB recently announced it 
would not allow future foreign investment in the onshore oil 
and gas sector.  This should help ensure that the good 
foreign investment times will not roll far.  End comment. 
Martinez