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Viewing cable 05BANGKOK954, ON THE EVE OF THAILAND'S GENERAL ELECTION: THE
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05BANGKOK954 | 2005-02-05 11:15 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Bangkok |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000954
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA HUSO.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: ON THE EVE OF THAILAND'S GENERAL ELECTION: THE
MAJOR PARTIES
REF: BANGKOK 673
¶1. (SBU) At first glance the Thai political landscape on the
eve of the February 6, 2005 parliamentary elections looks
cluttered. Thailand still has 39 registered political
parties. Twenty parties have fielded "party list" candidates
and 24 parties are entered in some of the 400 contests for
"constituency" seats in the Lower House of Parliament. The
reality, however, is that four major political parties hold
virtually all seats in Parliament, and the ballots cast this
Sunday won't radically alter that distribution. Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party
are tipped for a large scale victory, perhaps one that will
allow them to govern without forming a coalition. Most
observers predict that the TRT will win well over 300 party
list and constituency seats in Parliament. The Democrat
Party (DP) will remain the main opposition party but will
fall far short of the 201 seats it has publicly set its
sights on. The Chat Thai (CT) and Mahachon parties, the
other two credible parties, could pick up between 50 - 65
seats according to the latest polls. If TRT does not gain a
sufficiently large margin on its own to reach PM Thaksin's
comfort level, the Chat Thai and/or Mahachon parties are
presumed to be available to join the TRT in a stronger
governing coalition. As described in reftel, The CT has been
in the coalition of Thaksin's first government, and Mahachon
has made clear its readiness to ally with whomever best
satisfies the interests of its key members. A primer on the
four main Thai political parties follows:
THAI RAK THAI (TRT) PARTY
¶2. (U) TRT's dominant leader is Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra, with TRT Secretary-General (and Transportation
Minister) Suriya Jungrungruengkit in the role of key
political operative. TRT has more registered members, 14.4
million, then any other party and its current parliamentary
strength -- 329 MPs (266 Constituency and 63 Party-List MPs)
-- overshadows all of its coalition partner and opponent
parties. Regionally, TRT members of Parliament (MP) are
found in the great urban center of Bangkok, and the
voter-rich rural provinces of the North and Northeast.
¶3. (U) In his first term, Thaksin,s strong leadership and
the TRT,s decisive majority in Parliament allowed him to
implement the "populist" policies he articulated in his
campaign for victory in 2001. These policies -- especially
the 30 baht Health Care scheme, the Farmers, Debt Suspension
and Revitalization program, and the 1 million baht revolving
Village and Community Fund -- have cemented his popularity
with the rural electorate. Despite opposition accusations of
conflict-of-interest and corruption, and some setbacks from
the avian flu scare and continuing violence in Thailand's
south, Thaksin has maintained a high level of popular
approval. For this election, Thaksin has come up with new
populist policies to run on, such as the so-called Small,
Medium, Large village fund (SML) village improvement fund
program, a large public works transportation project, and
expansion of the country's irrigation water network in the
rural areas. As noted in earlier reporting, winning TRT
parliamentary candidates are expected to return Thaksin to
office handily. Many observers believe the election is not
about which party will win, but how wide the TRT majority
will be after the votes are counted.
¶4. (U) Thaksin like to project an image of TRT, the party he
founded, as modern and policy-oriented. However, despite his
clear dominance of TRT, he still has to balance off the
interests of party factions to keep winning candidates in his
corner and stay in fullest control of the party and national
politics. There are currently five major factions within the
TRT:
-- Wang Buaban is currently the largest and most influential
faction. It is led by Yowvapa Wongsawat, an MP from Chiang
Mai and Thaksin's sister. Other key Wang Buaban figures are
Suriya Jungrungruengkit, TRT secretary-general, and Somsak
Thepsutin, the TRT deputy leader. Most faction members are
MPs from the North, with some MPs from the Northeast.
-- Wang Namyen is led by Sanoh Thienthong, a veteran
politician and financier, who earned an unsavory reputation
as an influential New Aspiration Party (NAP) figure. He is
chairman of the TRT advisory board. Sanoh's faction is the
second largest group with most, if not all, members coming
from the Northeast. It was once the most influential
faction, but its influence has waned with the emergence of
the Wang Buaban group. Other leading figures in this
faction are Sora-at Klinpratoom, the TRT deputy leader, and
Chuchip Hansawat, an executive member and former Minister of
Agriculture and Cooperatives.
-- Wang Phayanak is the faction of mainly former Seritham
party MPs who merged with the TRT in July 2001. Pinij
Jarusombat, the former leader of the Seritham party, now a
TRT deputy leader, is the faction leader. Prachuap
Chaiyasan, a Thai trade representative, and Ekkaphap Polsue,
TRT deputy secretary-general, are other key figures. This
faction has good relations with the Wang Buaban faction and
been supportive in intra-party maneuvering.
-- The "Chart Pattana" faction become part of TRT in an
official merger between the Chart Pattana party (CP) into TRT
in September 2004. Suwat Liptapanlop, the wealthy former
leader of CP, is this faction's leader. Suwat's electoral
stronghold is in the Northeast, especially in Nakhon
Ratchasima, where his influence permeates every political
level.
-- The "Bangkok faction," comprised of TRT MPs from the
capital city, is led by Sudarat Keyuraphun, the deputy
leader. This faction's influence also extends to some
neighboring provinces. PM Thaksin prizes Public Health
Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan, the faction leader, for her
political expertise and her opinion carries much weight in
TRT councils. Other key members are Suranand Vejjajiva, the
clever and articulate TRT party spokesman, and Pimuk Simaroj,
TRT deputy spokesman.
¶5. (SBU) Major financial backers of TRT include the Shin Corp
(owned by the Shinawatra family), the CP Corporation, and
corporations run by Secretary General Suriya Chunrungruengkit
and Deputy Leader Adisai Photharamik.
DEMOCRAT PARTY (DP)
¶6. (U) The Democrat Party (DP), under the leadership of
Banyat Bantadtan and DP Secretary General Pradit
Phaktharaprasit, will likely remain as the main opposition
party after the election. DP has deep roots in modern Thai
democratic history, a current registered membership of 3.8
million, and a parliamentary strength of 128 MPs. Its
regional strength is in Bangkok and southern province
constituencies. In the last four years, the DP has had a
decidedly difficult role - partly because the TRT-led
majority coalition in the House of Representatives prevented
DP from ever censuring the Prime Minister directly and even
hampered its ability to open "no confidence" debates against
ministers.
¶7. (SBU) The DP has struggled to come up with new approaches
to better confront Thaksin and the TRT, which seems to
outflank and humiliate the Democrats at every term, which has
given the DP an air of ineptitude. Persistence of the bitter
party rifts which have historically plagued DP have not
helped. A party split widened in 2003 when power broker MG
Sanan Khachonprasat, who was banned in August 2000 from
holding political posts himself for 5 years for asset
concealment, collided with then DP party leader Chuan Leekpai
over Chuan's successor. Sanan,s faction won this conflict
and put veteran southern politician Banyat Banthatthan in as
the new DP leader, marginalizing Chuan's preferred heir, the
young and charismatic Bangkokian Aphisit Vejjajiva. In July
2004, reportedly disgruntled over his failure to sufficiently
influence Banyat, Sanan led several MPs out of the DP and
established Mahachon, a new political party built on the
remnants of the Rassadon (People's) Party of Watthana
Atsawahem, a notoriously "dirty" politician.
¶8. (SBU) The DP will probably be able to hang on to most of
its traditional parliamentary seats in Thailand's South, and
few constituencies elsewhere. However, under the stodgy and
uninspired leadership of Banyat, it has no chance of
extending its base or beating TRT nationwide.
CHAT THAI (CT) PARTY
¶9. (SBU) The Chat Thai (CT) leader is Banharn Silapa-archa, a
veteran Thai politician and former prime minister whose
political savvy and money hold the party together. CT has
registered 2,340,000 members. Its current parliamentary
strength is 41 MPs (35 Constituency and 6 Party-List), with
the core of its regional strength located in Thailand's
Central region, especially in Suphan Buri province.
¶10. (SBU) Chat Thai has downsized considerably since the
Banharn-led administration left power in November 1996. The
almost immediate departure of most members of the Sanoh
Thienthong faction (which later joined TRT) and other
groupings of parliamentarians reduced the CT voting bloc
significantly. For a time, CT political influence was based
on MPs from Suphan Buri and Chon Buri provinces. Shortly
before the January 6, 2001 parliamentary election, Newin
Chidchob, an up-and-coming (some say "infamous") MP from
Buriram, brought four MPs from the defunct Solidarity Party
(SP) into CT. But most of this Buriram faction, including
Newin, succumbed to the blandishments of a persistent TRT
courtship in 2004 of MPs from other parties. Banharn also
lost heavily from the Chon Buri faction and now presides over
a CT that seems really only to have a safe hold on
parliamentary constituencies in Supan Buri province. That
said, Banharn remains one of Thailand's most tenacious
traditional politicians, a survivor who seems to know which
wheels to grease to keep a political machine rolling
effectively.
MAHACHON PARTY (MCP)
¶11. (U) The only other party with prospects for winning a
bloc of parliamentary seats is one of the newest, Mahachon
(MCP), established in July 2004. Mahachon began essentially
as a breakaway faction of the Democrat Party (see para 7
above). Its nominal leader is Dr. Anek Laothammathat, a
former Dean of Political Science at Thammasat University and
ex-Deputy DP Leader. Several other well-regarded DP MPs --
ex-Deputy DP Secretary General Akkhaphon Sorasuchat and ex-DP
financier Phonthep Techaphaibun -- joined Mahachon as deputy
party leaders. Mahachon's chief financial backer is ex-DP
Secretary General MG Sanan Khachonprasat, who plays a major
SIPDIS
behind the scenes role. Other financial support reportedly
is supplied by Chaliaw Yuwitthaya of the Red Guar Beverage
Company, with some also coming from business tycoon Charoen
Siriwatthanaphakdi of the giant CP group of companies, who
generously bankrolls several parties and political power
brokers.
¶12. (U) One improbable theory circulating is that Mahachon
was deliberately created as a branch of the DP, with a new
name in order to improve the chances of regaining
Northeastern voters, support. Under this theory Mahachon
candidates taking TRT districts in the Northeast will reunite
with the DP in forming a new government. The more realistic
way of understanding Mahachon is that MG Sanan, unable to
control Banyat, wanted to run a political party of his own
for the wider political "opportunities" that could open. He
wishes to be in a position to be of value to any political
party able to form a coalition government, in particular the
ruling TRT of Thaksin.
¶13. (U) Voters on February 6 will select 400 members of
Parliament from constituencies throughout Thailand. They
will also indicate their preferences for parties in a
separate "party list" vote. All parties gaining 5 percent of
the national party list vote will be eligible for a number of
the 100 party list seats in the next Parliament, allocated on
a proportional basis according to the votes received.
¶14. (U) The latest polls indicate that TRT could win 260-280
constituency seats, and up to 70 party list seats, or
potentially close to 350 total seats in the 500 seat
Parliament. This indicates that TRT might be able to form a
single-party government, one with no coalition partners. The
DP, with some support throughout Thailand, and retaining core
constituencies in the South, should remain the main
opposition party with just over 100 total MPs, including some
75-80 constituency seats. Chat Thai, surprisingly, appears to
heading for 30-35 constituency seats and maybe the minimum 5
party list seats. Mahachon could win between 10-16
constituency seats, but is not expected to qualify for any
party list seats. Some polls indicate that a sitting
candidate from the New Aspiration Party (NAP), the only
holdout when NAP merged into TRT, will win his constituency.
Candidates from two very small parties, the Social Action
Party (SAP) and Labor Party, might also manage to win one
constituency seat each.
BOYCE