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Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON78, NATIONAL GOES TO BAT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05WELLINGTON78 2005-01-27 03:33 2011-04-28 00:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Wellington
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000078 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM NZ
SUBJECT: NATIONAL GOES TO BAT 
 
 
Classified By: ACTING DCM KATHERINE B. HADDA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (U) Summary.  After a week of press leaks and innuendo, 
the 2005 election season swung into full gear with Opposition 
National Party leader Don Brash's much-anticipated speech at 
Orewa Rotary Club on January 25, unveiling National's 
long-promised position on welfare reform.  Expectations for 
this speech were astronomical after a speech at the same 
venue in January 2004 surprised both the Government and 
National by resulting in a 15 percent poll jump for National. 
 While short on specific policy prescriptions, the biggest 
announcement in the speech was a pledge to reduce the total 
number of beneficiaries by 100,000 within the next ten years. 
 
 
2.  (SBU) Although the speech made it onto the front pages, 
public reaction seems well below that generated by last 
year's speech.  But the message gives an idea of National's 
intentions going into the early stages of the election 
campaign.  By raising the welfare issue, the party hopes to 
attract struggling middle-income working families with 
children, and to solidify support by traditional National 
voters.  Learning from last year, the Government responded 
quickly to the speech, noting that the number of 
beneficiaries has actually declined since Labour has been in 
office.  End summary. 
 
Orewa II: Return of the Brash 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (U) After a week of press leaks and innuendo, Opposition 
National Party leader Don Brash gave a much-anticipated 
speech at Orewa Rotary Club on January 25, unveiling 
National's long-promised position on welfare reform.  Brash 
was quick to note that he is not condemning legitimate 
beneficiaries, but rather aiming at the widespread fraud he 
believes is in the system.  Welfare is "a temporary hand up 
not an open-ended handout," he said, emphasizing that the 
system was out of control.  Brash noted that since 1975, New 
Zealand's population had grown by 32 percent, but the number 
of Sickness Benefit recipients has grown by almost 500 
percent, and those on the Invalids' Benefit by almost 700 
percent.  Since 1999, when the current Labour Government took 
office, the population has grown by 6 percent, versus 40 
percent growth in the number receiving those two benefits. 
 
4. (U) Expectations for this speech were astronomical: at the 
same venue and time last year, Brash's speech attacking 
racial preference in Government policies resulted in a 15 
percent poll jump for National, surprising both his own party 
and the Labour Government.  Proving they have learned their 
lesson, and leaving no doubt that election year sparring has 
begun, Minister for Social Development Steve Maharey 
immediately countered this year's speech, pointing to a 
reduction in overall beneficiary numbers since 1999, and 
highlighting New Zealand's current record low unemployment 
rate.  He also claimed that Labour was already enacting all 
of the "good recommendations" from the speech.  The remainder 
of Brash's recommendations were failed National policies from 
the 1990s, Maharey said. Prime Minister Helen Clark, in a 
limited statement, stood by her record, and pointed to a 20 
percent reduction of working age benefit recipients during 
Labour's 5-years in Government. 
 
Promises Made 
------------- 
 
5. (U) While not varying substantially from policies 
announced by Party Welfare Spokeswoman Katherine Rich in 
2003, Brash did make a new pledge to reduce the total number 
of beneficiaries by 100,000 within the next ten years.  To 
achieve this, Brash focused primarily on more stringent 
application of single-parent subsidies- the Domestic Purposes 
Benefit (DPB).  He also advocated a limited 
"work-for-the-dole" program or retraining for those receiving 
unemployment, and tougher medical evaluation of those 
receiving Sickness and Invalid payments.  For employees seen 
as risky, i.e. those without experience, with poor English 
skills, or with a criminal record, potential employers would 
be offered a 90-day "trial period" to encourage greater 
workforce participation. 
 
6. (U) Repeating National's mantra of "personal 
responsibility" versus an expanding "nanny state," Brash 
called for DPB recipients to be ready for part-time work when 
their youngest children turned five and full-time when they 
turned 14.  Brash savaged the Labour Government for allowing 
women to have greater incomes if they deny having a 
relationship with their childrens' father than they would if 
the same couple were married.  Brash also stated that under a 
National government, single parents on the DPB who won't name 
the father of their children would face financial penalties. 
Brash also advocated adoption as an option, especially for 
teenage mothers. 
The Political Angle 
------------------- 
 
7. (U) Demonstrating election year sensitivities, Brash was 
quick to clarify that National's welfare policies will not 
apply to social security benefits for either people over 65 
or those physically or mentally unable to support themselves. 
 He also stressed that National would be supportive of women 
trying to leave abusive relationships.   With National's 
voters statistically older than Labour's, and the overall 
speech aimed at working New Zealanders, these clarifications 
should reassure National's core constituency.  Critics of his 
proposals, which include the Green Party, United Future and 
social welfare groups, point out that there are few specifics 
in the plan, no mention of anticipated costs, and little to 
differentiate it from past National policies. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) Because of the attention generated by last year's 
speech, extensive media coverage and a strong government 
response were assured for this one, regardless of topic or 
caliber.  Despite the initial media blitz, however, voters 
had a lukewarm reaction, with newspapers reporting they had 
received a quarter of the number of letters commenting on the 
speech compared to 2004.  This is not altogether surprising, 
given the unreasonably high expectations placed on Brash by 
the media and his own party.  The speech was significant, 
though, in that it has countered criticism that National has 
been afraid to unveil policies for fear that the Labour 
government will hijack the agenda by itself implementing 
National's recommended reforms, as happened after last year's 
Orewa speech.  Whether the Government will succeed with a 
similar sleight of hand this time remains to be seen, but 
officials' claims that Labour has already reduced the number 
of beneficiaries was no doubt intended as a step in this 
direction. 
Swindells